Bringing diverse knowledge sources together--a meta-model for supporting integrated catchment management

Integrated catchment management (ICM), as promoted by recent legislation such as the European Water Framework Directive, presents difficult challenges to planners and decision-makers. To support decision-making in the face of high complexity and uncertainty, tools are required that can integrate the evidence base required to evaluate alternative management scenarios and promote communication and social learning. In this paper we present a pragmatic approach for developing an integrated decision-support tool, where the available sources of information are very diverse and a tight model coupling is not possible. In the first instance, a loosely coupled model is developed which includes numerical sub-models and knowledge-based sub-models. However, such a model is not easy for decision-makers and stakeholders to operate without modelling skills. Therefore, we derive from it a meta-model based on a Bayesian Network approach which is a decision-support tool tailored to the needs of the decision-makers and is fast and easy to operate. The meta-model can be derived at different levels of detail and complexity according to the requirements of the decision-makers. In our case, the meta-model was designed for high-level decision-makers to explore conflicts and synergies between management actions at the catchment scale. As prediction uncertainties are propagated and explicitly represented in the model outcomes, important knowledge gaps can be identified and an evidence base for robust decision-making is provided. The framework seeks to promote the development of modelling tools that can support ICM both by providing an integrated scientific evidence base and by facilitating communication and learning processes.     

Impact of microcystin containing diets on physiological performance of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) concerning detoxification

Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were fed by diets supplemented with cyanobacteria containing in part the cyanotoxin microcystin-LR (MC-LR) to determine the potential impacts on detoxification. Four different diets were prepared based on a commercial diet: (1) control, (2) MC-5% (containing 5% dried Microcystis sp. biomass with 4.92 μg MC-LR g(-1) diet), (3) MC-20% (containing 20% dried Microcystis sp. biomass with 19.54 μg MC-LR g(-1) diet), and (4) Arthr-20% (containing 20% dried Arthrospira sp. biomass without MC-LR). Blood and liver samples were taken after one, 7, and 28 days and protein has been determined in plasma and liver. In the liver, impacts on detoxification were measured by glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activities and gene expression of multi drug resistance protein (MDRP). Plasma protein did not change between all four diets at any sampling time whereas liver protein was significantly elevated already after one day in Arthr-20% and after 28 days in both, MC-20% and Arthr-20%. Biochemical measurements of GST activities revealed no significant impact at any sampling time. In order to characterize the potential effect of MC-LR on MDRP, RT-qPCR method was established. However, as for GST activities no significant changes in MDRP gene expression have been observed. Thus, in summary, oral exposure of MC-LR containing cyanobacteria to Nile tilapia via feed ingestion did not impact significantly detoxification in liver concerning GST activities and MDRP expression despite biochemical composition concerning liver protein was significantly elevated by the diets containing 20% cyanobacteria biomass, regardless whether they contained MC-LR or not.     

Calibrating climate change policies: the causes and consequences of sustained under-reaction

We apply insights from the recent literature on disproportionate policy reactions to the case of climate change policy-making. We show when and why climate change exhibits features of a sustained under-reaction: Governments may react to concerns about climate change not through substantive change but by efforts to manage blame strategically. As long as they can avoid blame for potential negative policy outcomes policy-makers can act to deny problems, or implement only small-scale or symbolic reforms. While this pattern may change as climate change problems worsen and public recognition of the issue and what can be done about it alters, opportunities to manage blame will still exist. Governments will only revert to more substantive interventions when attempts to fatalistically frame the problem as unavoidable fail in the face of increased public visibility.     

Climate change and coastal aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions: experiences from Bangladesh and Denmark

This paper addresses the issue of risk perception in relation to climate change threats, comparison of risk perceptions in two different regions, and derives general results of what affect peoples’ level of risk perceptions. Revelation of individual risk perception is essential for local acceptance and cooperation. We do this by a comparative study with Bangladesh shrimp farmers and Danish mussel farmers. Since these people live on the edge of subsistence, already small changes in the climate will affect them significantly. Farmers in both developed and developing economies are concerned about global climate change but there are significant differences in farmers’ perceptions of the causes of global climate change in developed and developing countries.     

SWAT‐LUT: A Desktop Graphical User Interface for Updating Land Use in SWAT

Long‐term simulations of agricultural watersheds have often been done assuming constant land use over time, but this is not a realistic assumption for many agricultural regions. This paper presents the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)‐Landuse Update Tool (LUT), a standalone, user‐friendly desktop‐based tool for updating land use in the SWAT model that allows users to process multi‐year land use data. SWAT‐LUT is compatible with several SWAT model interfaces, provides users with several options to easily prepare and incorporate land use changes (LUCs) over a simulation period, and allows users to incorporate past or emerging land use categories. Incorporation of LUCs is expected to provide realistic model parameterization and scenario simulations. SWAT‐LUT is a public domain interface written in Python programming language. Two applications at the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed located in Oklahoma and pertinent results are provided to demonstrate its use. Incorporating LUCs related to implementation of recommended conservation practices over the years reduced discharge, evapotranspiration, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads by 59%, 9%, 68%, 53%, and 88%, respectively. The user’s manual is included in this article as Supporting Information. The SWAT‐LUT executable file and an example SWAT project with three land use rasters and the user’s manual are available at the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Grazinglands Research Laboratory website under Software. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

PSD and Nonattainment Regulation: Implications of a Settlement Agreement

The EPA recently issued an internal memorandum and a settlement agreement in the case of Chemical Manufacturers Association et al. vs. EPA. The agreement reflects potential changes to the PSD regulations and the Emissions Offset Interpretive Ruling for nonattainment areas. The information presented in this paper is a summary of the significant aspects of the agreement, as it will affect future industrial sources. This paper also discusses other recent changes to the PSD and nonattainment regulations.

The changes to the regulations provide for significant relaxation of some aspects of PSD and the nonattainment regulations. The most significant aspect is the proposed change in the method of tabulating net increases of emissions due to source modifications. The change would allow offset credit for decreases in emissions due to shutdown of equipment based on the potential emission rate rather than the actual.     

Assessing the susceptibility of societies to droughts: a political science perspective

In this article we develop a concept for the assessment of state’s susceptibility to drought based on a political science perspective. Different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account to assess the overall susceptibility of states as political systems. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of state capacity and readiness as main elements of political susceptibility, wealth and economic sensitivity as elements of economic susceptibility and the degree of social integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we developed an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. The resulting computed trends for Portugal suggest that the society will be able to deal even with severe natural conditions due to existing political, economic, and social conditions. The assessment results for the Indian and Russian case study regions, in contrast, give reason for precaution since the occurrence of drought-induced crisis events seems much more likely in the light of more crucial, overall conditions, namely lower degrees of state capacity and readiness as well as, in the case of India, a high economic susceptibility. However, further improvements are possible given the improved availability of data and the integration of more qualitative information. Additionally, the expansion to further case study regions could help validate the overall concept.     

A new approach to estimate nuclide ratios from measurements with activities close to background

Measurements of low-level radioactivity often give results of the order of the detection limit. For many applications, interest is not only in estimating activity concentrations of a single radioactive isotope, but focuses on multi-isotope analyses, which often enable inference on the source of the activity detected (e.g. from activity ratios). Obviously, such conclusions become questionable if the measurement merely gives a detection limit for a specific isotope. This is particularly relevant if the presence of an isotope, which shows a low signal only (e.g. due to a short half-life or a small transition probability), is crucial for gaining the information of interest.