Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Pectenotoxins--an issue for public health: a review of their comparative toxicology and metabolism.

Pectenotoxins (PTXs) are a group of toxins associated with diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) and isolated from DSP toxin-producing dinoflagellate algae. Consumption of shellfish contaminated with PTXs has been associated with incidences of severe diarrhetic illness resulting in hospitalisation. Concern has been raised for public health following the discovery that these toxins are not only hepatotoxic and can cause diarrhetic effects in mammals, but that they are potently cytotoxic to human cancer cell lines and have been found to be tumour promoters in animals. With advances in knowledge and technology, more PTXs are being identified, but little is known of their toxicology and the potential impact these toxins may have on public health in the long term. Without such information, adequate health-risk assessments for the consumption of shellfish contaminated with PTXs cannot be performed. This review gives a brief introduction to diarrhetic shellfish toxins, details the known toxicology and metabolism of PTXs in animals, and discusses known incidences of PTX poisoning in humans.     

Assessment of environmental changes in the Orinoco River delta

Major anthropogenic driven changes in the hydrologic and sedimentation patterns of the Orinoco River have had an impact on environmental conditions in the delta. The abrupt water flow reduction from 3,600 to 200 m³ s^–1 in one of its major distributaries resulting from dam construction forced its transformation from a fresh-water body into a tidal channel with an increase in salinity level (as far as 100 km upstream) and with well-mixed water at the mouth and estuarine connection to the Paria Gulf. Three different sectors along this distributary can be identified (indicated by the Na/Cl ratio in the water). As a result, noticeable changes have occurred in the mangrove community which moved about 60 km further upstream. The changes have also promoted the formation of new islands of sediment progradation at the mouth of this distributary, where successional colonization and species replacement by different species of grasses and mangroves take place. Electronic Publication     

Carbon Emission by Soils in Forests Damaged by the Siberian Moth

In the southern-taiga low grass–green moss fir forest completely defoliated by the Siberian moth, the rate of soil respiration in the third year after the pest population outbreak was 1.5 times higher than in an undisturbed tree stand. This was explained by a significant increase in the abundance and activity of soil microorganisms in the pest-defoliated forest, which occurred due to the qualitative changes in the litter composition and the increased temperature and moisture in the upper soil layers. The rate of carbon emission from the soil in the defoliated forest was 41.7 kg/ha per day, compared to 28.3 kg/ha per day in the undisturbed fir forest.     

Effect of Mountain Relief and Industrial Air Pollution on Biometric Characteristics of Pine Stands

The effect of mountain relief and industrial air pollution on biometric parameters of pine stands was studied. The empirical–statistical models of the dependence of biometric characteristics on the parameters of forest sites were developed using raster modeling and multivariate analysis. The possibility of predicting changes in the biometric parameters at any site on the basis of these models is shown.     

Biological productivity of bogs in the middle taiga subzone of Western Siberia

New experimental data on biological productivity of plant communities in oligotrophic and mesotrophic bogs of the middle taiga subzone over the past five years are presented. The relationship between net primary production and the stock of live phytomass is estimated. The stock of necromass in oligotrophic bog ecosystems increases from west to east, while the stock of live phytomass and net primary production decrease.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Effect of forest fires on the avifauna of the Northern Amur Region

To reveal the effect of forest fires on the avifauna of the Northern Amur Region, bird assemblages of primary dark conifer-deciduous forests, wild rosemary larch forests, and secondary larch-birch forests have been studied in the Komsomol’skii and Norskii nature reserves. It has been shown that the replacement of primary dark conifer-deciduous forests by secondary forests is accompanied by a significant decrease in bird population density, with some species being lost and the composition of the dominant species group being changed. On the other hand, fires lead to increasing patchiness of the environment, which can sometimes provide for an increase in biological diversity.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Paleosols of the Solonchanka IX site and climate of the Transural steppe zone in the fourth century AD

Studies on paleosols under an archaeological landmark of a rare type (a complex of kurgans with “whiskers”) dating from the Early Iron Age (the fourth century AD) have been performed in the steppe zone of the Transural Plateau. The size and shape of third-order soil polygons under stony ridges (“whiskers”) between the kurgans have been described in detail. The results have shown that the paleosol under the kurgans erected at the turn of the Late Sarmatian and Hun times (1600 years ago) is characterized by a higher humus content and deeper location of the carbonate horizon, compared to the recent soil. This indicates that an increase in atmospheric humidity took place in the fourth century AD.