“An eye for an eye?”—on the generality of the intimidating quality of eyespots in a butterfly and a hawkmoth

Large eyespots on the wings of butterflies and moths have been ascribed generally intimidating qualities by creating a frightening image of a bird or mammal much larger than the insect bearing the eyespots. However, evidence for this anti-predator adaptation has been largely anecdotal and only recently were peacock butterflies, Inachis io, shown to effectively thwart attacks from blue tits, Parus caeruleus. Here, we test whether large eyespots on lepidopterans are generally effective in preventing attacks from small passerines and whether the size of insect or bird can influence the outcome of interactions. We staged experiments between the larger eyed hawkmoths, Smerinthus ocellatus, and the smaller peacock butterflies, I. io, and the larger great tits, Parus major, and the smaller blue tits, P. caeruleus. Survival differed substantially between the insect species with 21 of 24 peacock butterflies, but only 6 of 27 eyed hawkmoths, surviving attacks from the birds. Thus, surprisingly, the smaller prey survived to a higher extent, suggesting that factors other than insect size may be important. However, great tits were less easily intimidated by the insects’ eyespots and deimatic behaviour and consumed 16 of 26, but the blue tits only 8 of 25, of the butterflies and hawkmoths. Our results demonstrate that eyespots per se do not guarantee survival and that these two insects bearing equally large eyespots are not equally well protected against predation.     

Culturally correct song dialects are correlated with male age and female song preferences in wild populations of brown-headed cowbirds

Variation in vocal behavior among local populations of songbirds may be significant to females in mate choice. In a study of dialect populations of brown-headed cowbirds, estradiol-implanted females from two dialects held the pre-copulatory lordosis posture longer in response to playback of the local flight whistle song than to foreign whistle types from adjacent and more distant dialects. Females were held in captivity for a relatively brief period prior to testing and received no tutoring so discrimination was based solely on experience in the wild. This is the first study to show evidence of discrimination by female cowbirds based on flight whistle type. Evidence is presented from one of the study dialects that the majority of yearling male cowbirds are vocally distinct from resident adults in having either foreign or incomplete local whistles. Although these yearlings are fully mature sexually, they have little or no mating success. The correlation between female whistle preference and male mating success suggests that the ability to give the correct local whistle type may be a characteristic used by females to assess age and quality of a potential mate. A learned female preference for the predominant local song type may be a factor in the stability of these dialects by making it adaptive for males to conform to the local dialect.     

Does Including Soil Moisture Observations Improve Operational Streamflow Forecasts in Snow‐Dominated Watersheds?

Changing climate and growing water demand are increasing the need for robust streamflow forecasts. Historically, operational streamflow forecasts made by the Natural Resources Conservation Service have relied on precipitation and snow water equivalent observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We investigate whether also including SNOTEL soil moisture observations improve April‐July streamflow volume forecast accuracy at 0, 1, 2, and 3‐month lead times at 12 watersheds in Utah and California. We found statistically significant improvement in 0 and 3‐month lead time accuracy in 8 of 12 watersheds and 10 of 12 watersheds for 1 and 2‐month lead times. Surprisingly, these improvements were insensitive to soil moisture metrics derived from soil physical properties. Forecasts were made with volumetric water content (VWC) averaged from October 1 to the forecast date. By including VWC at the 0‐month lead time the forecasts explained 7.3% more variability and increased the streamflow volume accuracy by 8.4% on average compared to standard forecasts that already explained an average 77% of the variability. At 1 to 3‐month lead times, the inclusion of soil moisture explained 12.3‐26.3% more variability than the standard forecast on average. Our findings indicate including soil moisture observations increased statistical streamflow forecast accuracy and thus, could potentially improve water supply reliability in regions affected by changing snowpacks.     

Formation of Nitrate and Sulfate in the Plume of Berlin (8 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope Secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), i.e. particulate sulphate (S(VI)), ammonium and nitrate (N(V)) is formed from gaseous precursors i.e., sulfur dioxide (S(IV)), ammonia and nitrogen oxides, in polluted air on the time-scale of hours to days. Besides particulate ammonium and nitrate, the respective gaseous species ammonia and nitric acid can be formed, too. SIA contributes significantly to elevated levels of respirable particulate matter in urban areas and in strongly anthropogenically influenced air in general. Methods The near-ground aerosol chemical composition was studied at two stationary sites in the vicinity of Berlin during a field campaign in summer 1998. By means of analysis of the wind field, two episodes were identified which allow to study changes within individual air masses during transport i.e., a Lagrangian type of experiment, with one station being upwind and the other downwind of the city. By reference to a passive tracer (Na+) and estimates on dry depositional losses, the influences of dispersion and mixing on concentration changes can be eliminated from the data analysis. Results and Discussion Chemical changes in N(-III), N(V) and S(VI) species were observed. SIA i.e., N(V) and S(VI), was formed from emissions in the city within a few hours. The significance of emissions in the city was furthermore confirmed by missing SIA formation in the case of transport around the city. For the two episodes, SIA formation rates could be derived, albeit not more precise than by an order of magnitude. N(V) formation rates were between 1.4 and 20 and between 1.9 and 59 % h-1 on the two days, respectively, and S(VI) formation rates were > 17 and > 10 % h-1. The area south of the city was identified as a source of ammonia. Conclusion The probability of occurrence of situations during which the downwind site (50 km downwind of Berlin) would be hit by an urban plume is > 7.4%. Furthermore, for the general case of rural areas in Germany it is estimated that for more than half of these there is a significant probability to be hit by an urban plume (> 8%). The S(VI) formation rates are higher than explainable by homogeneous gas-phase chemistry and suggest the involvement of heterogeneous reactions of aerosol particles. Recommendation and Outlook The possible contribution of heterogeneous processes to S(VI) formation should be addressed in laboratory studies. Measurements at more than two sites could improve the potential of Lagrangian field experiments for the quantification of atmospheric chemical transformations, if a second downwind site is chosen in such a way that, at least under particular stability conditions, measurements there are representative for the source area.     

Dechlorination of PCE in the presence of Fe0 enhanced by a mixed culture containing two Dehalococcoides strains

A mixed culture capable of supplying its energy requirements by the oxidation of zero-valent iron (Fe0) and concomitant reduction of chlorinated ethenes was established. The culture contained Dehalococcoides species as determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with genus specific primers. The use of a newly designed ARDRA procedure and subsequent sequencing revealed the presence of two Dehalococcoides strains, one closely related to Dehalococcoides ethenogenes strain 195, a bacterium respiring with chlorinated ethenes, and one closely related to strain CBDB1 a chlorobenzene and dioxin dehalogenating anaerobe. The mixed culture was used to study dechlorination of tetrachloroethene (PCE) to ethene in the presence of Fe0. Whereas abiotic transformation of PCE by Fe0 led to incomplete dechlorination, the mixed culture mediated fast and complete dechlorination of PCE to ethene with Fe0 as electron donor. Compared to cultures with hydrogen added as electron donor, cultures with Fe0 as electron donor showed the same or higher rates of PCE dechlorination. Growth of the Dehalococcoides strains in the mixed culture is linked to the presence of Fe0 as electron donor and PCE as electron acceptor demonstrating that Dehalococcoides spp. play a pivotal role in the dechlorination of chlorinated ethenes in Fe0 systems.     

Two-phase modeling of sediment clouds

A sediment cloud release in stagnant ambient fluid occurs in many engineering applications. Examples include land reclamation and disposal of dredged materials. The detailed modeling of the distinct characteristics of both the solid and fluid phases of the sediment cloud is hitherto unavailable in the literature despite their importance in practice. In this paper, the two-phase mixing characteristics of the sediment cloud are investigated both experimentally and theoretically. Experiments were carried out to measure the transient depth penetration and the lateral spread of the sediment cloud and its entrained fluid using the laser induced fluorescence technique, with a range of particle sizes frequently encountered in the field (modeled at laboratory scale). A two-phase model of the sediment cloud that provides detailed predictions of the mixing characteristics of the individual phases is also proposed. The entrained fluid characteristics are solved by an integral model accounting for the buoyancy loss (due to particle separation) in each time step. The flow field induced by the sediment cloud is approximated by a Hill’s spherical vortex centered at the centroid and with the size of the entrained fluid. The particle equation of motion under the effect of the induced flow governs each computational particle. A random walk model using the hydrodynamic diffusion coefficient is used to account for the random fluctuation of particles in the dispersive regime. Overall, the model predictions of the two-phase mixing characteristics are in good agreement with the experimental data for a wide range of release conditions.     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases

In most OECD countries, emergency response to accidents and natural disasters is very dependent on a trained workforce of emergency services volunteers: fire, rescue, medical, care and relief. With its large area, sparsely settled population, and frequent periods of low rainfall, Australia is particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by wildfires. There are an estimated 220,000 rural fire volunteers (in a population of 20 million) in eight state and territory volunteer rural fire services. These fire services have experienced significant decreases in volunteer numbers over the past decade, a trend which is true also of North American volunteer fire services. An investigation suggests that the decrease is driven by two related sets of factors: economic and demographic. Globalisation and deregulation of the economy, and technological innovation, have resulted in structural changes in the nature of work: privatisation, casualisation, self-employment, and demands for increased productivity. These factors make it more difficult for members of communities to volunteer, regardless of their motivation to do so. Further, like many other OECD countries, Australia's birth rate has fallen over the last three decades, resulting in a decline in the proportion of the population aged between 25 and 45 years—a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future. These economic and demographic changes make it difficult for Australian volunteer rural fire agencies to meet their community protection responsibilities. Responding to these challenges may require radical changes in the way that these fire services are organised and supported.