PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

Sexual size dimorphism in fallow deer (Dama dama): do larger, heavier males gain greater mating success?

Sexual size dimorphism may evolve as a result of both natural and sexual selection. In polygynous mammals, the main factor resulting in the evolution of large body size in males is the advantage conferred during competition for mates. In this study, we examined whether sexual selection acts on body size in mature fallow bucks (Dama dama) by examining how the following traits are inter-related: age, body (skeletal) size, body mass, prerut dominance rank, rut dominance rank and mating success. This is the first study to examine how all these factors are together related to the mating success of a large sexually dimorphic and polygynous mammal. We found that male mating success was directly related to body size, but not to body mass. However body mass was related to prerut dominance rank which was in turn strongly related to rut dominance rank, and thus there was an indirect relationship between mating success and body mass. Rut dominance rank was the variable most strongly related to mating success. Mating success among mature males was unrelated to age. We conclude that larger mature fallow bucks have advantages over other males when competing for matings, and sexual selection therefore continues to act on sexual size dimorphism in this species. Heavier fallow bucks also have advantages, but these are mediated through the dominance ranks attained by males before the rut.     

SWAT‐LUT: A Desktop Graphical User Interface for Updating Land Use in SWAT

Long‐term simulations of agricultural watersheds have often been done assuming constant land use over time, but this is not a realistic assumption for many agricultural regions. This paper presents the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)‐Landuse Update Tool (LUT), a standalone, user‐friendly desktop‐based tool for updating land use in the SWAT model that allows users to process multi‐year land use data. SWAT‐LUT is compatible with several SWAT model interfaces, provides users with several options to easily prepare and incorporate land use changes (LUCs) over a simulation period, and allows users to incorporate past or emerging land use categories. Incorporation of LUCs is expected to provide realistic model parameterization and scenario simulations. SWAT‐LUT is a public domain interface written in Python programming language. Two applications at the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed located in Oklahoma and pertinent results are provided to demonstrate its use. Incorporating LUCs related to implementation of recommended conservation practices over the years reduced discharge, evapotranspiration, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads by 59%, 9%, 68%, 53%, and 88%, respectively. The user’s manual is included in this article as Supporting Information. The SWAT‐LUT executable file and an example SWAT project with three land use rasters and the user’s manual are available at the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Grazinglands Research Laboratory website under Software. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Two‐Stage Agricultural Ditch Sediments Act as Phosphorus Sinks in West Michigan

Phosphorus (P) and sediment inputs from agricultural drainage contribute to the development of hypereutrophic conditions in lakes across the world. Two‐stage (2‐S) ditches, an agricultural best management practice gaining acceptance in the Midwestern United States, increase floodplain area within drainage ditches to help capture nutrients and sediment. While denitrification has been shown to increase on 2‐S benches, less is known about their P retention ability. This study assessed the abiotic and biotic P retention of two separate 2‐S ditches compared to their corresponding traditional reaches directly upstream within the Macatawa watershed, located in West Michigan. Soluble reactive P export was significantly reduced in 2‐S baseflow of both ditch systems. Equilibrium P concentration values suggest retention of P within the 2‐S sediment. P was bound within stable fractions in both 2‐S and traditional reaches. An analysis of P stock within the ditches revealed sediment held over 96% of total P (TP) within each reach compared to <4% in bench vegetation and periphyton combined. Turbidity, but not TP, was reduced in one study ditch, whereas TP, but not turbidity, was reduced in the other study ditch. Geomorphic stability may have been responsible for differing P retention between ditches. Ability to retain P appears to be impacted by physical as well as biogeochemical characteristics; hence, structure and age of 2‐S reaches influence P retention.     

CRC-APRAC Vehicle Emissions Modeling Workshop

A conference was held on October 30-31,1990 to examine discrepancies between the output of vehicle emission factor models (MOBILE and EMFAC), field and laboratory measurements of vehicle emissions, and observed ratios of pollutants in urban atmospheres dominated by vehicle emissions. There was a general consensus that significant discrepancies exist and that these discrepancies must be resolved. A number of research recommendations were made as to how models and model inputs could be improved, and what additional laboratory and field work should be conducted.     

The role of spatial scale in sustainable development

The role of spatial scale in sustainable development is assessed by dividing the world into multiple spatial units at different levels on a socio-political spatial scale. The basic patterns of sustainable development do not appear to be evident at all spatial levels, owing to the absence of some capital stocks and the conversion processes linking them, but environmental economics theory can be generalized to explain phenomena at various levels. Capital conversion processes influencing the sustainability of development of spatial units are constrained by processes at different levels, e.g. those imposing environmental conditions on development or affecting availability of investment capital. The autonomy of individual spatial units is also compromised by capital transfers to and from other units at the same level, so it is proposed that the sustainability of development of a particular unit should be estimated using net, rather than gross capital trends. Because of uneven development the same degree of sustainability should not be expected at the same time for all spatial units at the same spatial level.     

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973-2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.