Implications of ecological data constraints for integrated policy and livelihoods modelling: An example from East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Policy and human livelihoods modelling increasingly demands integrated research which requires ecological expertise. However, contributions from ecologists are often based on sparse data. Rather than discounting such data, in this paper we demonstrate how ecological modelling can effectively contribute to the development of policy recommendations in spite of data constraints. In a petrol subsidy analysis in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, we accounted for ecological data uncertainty by (a) assuming large parameter value ranges and (b) conducting a robustness test for policy recommendations. In addition to data scarcity, counter-intuitive results emerged emphasising the need for model validation. These counter-intuitive results indicated that decreasing petrol prices led to increased poverty. This informed a policy recommendation to prevent the reduction of petrol prices below IDR 5500 per litre. Using two key livelihood resources (fish and honey), we found that while a traditional sensitivity analysis suggested highly robust results, a robustness test indicated that policy recommendations would change if the incorrectness of parameter values approached 50%. The results show that ecological modelling can contribute effectively in spite of sparse data to guide policy, as well as identifying future research priorities.     

A model-based approach to determine the long-term effects of multiple interacting stressors on coral reefs

The interaction between multiple stressors on Caribbean coral reefs, namely, fishing effort and hurricane impacts, is a key element in the future sustainability of reefs. We develop an analytic model of coral-algal interactions and explicitly consider grazing by herbivorous reef fish. Further, we consider changes in structural complexity, or rugosity, in addition to the direct impacts of hurricanes, which are implemented as stochastic jump processes. The model simulations consider various levels of fishing effort corresponding to' several hurricane frequencies and impact levels dependent on geographic location. We focus on relatively short time scales so we do not explicitly include changes in ocean temperature, chemistry, or sea level rise. The general features of our approach would, however, apply to these other stressors and to the management of other systems in the face of multiple stressors. It is determined that the appropriate management policy, either local reef restoration or fisheries management, greatly depends on hurricane frequency and impact level. For sufficiently low hurricane impact and macroalgal growth rate, our results indicate that regions with lower-frequency hurricanes require stricter fishing regulations, whereas management in regions with higher-frequency hurricanes might be less concerned with enhancing grazing and instead consider whether local-scale restorative activities to increase vertical structure are cost-effective.     

Approximate evaluation of contaminant transport through vertical barriers

Containment of groundwater contamination using physical barriers can be an important element of a subsurface remediation program. This work presents simple analytical tools for predicting the performance of barriers in terms of the steady-state contaminant flux across the barrier, the duration of the transient period following barrier installation, and the time-dependent contaminant concentration distribution within the barrier. The analytical expressions are developed from approximate boundary layer (BL) solutions to the advective–dispersive equation subject to conservative fixed concentration boundary conditions. Critical ranges of important dimensionless quantities are identified for use in barrier performance assessment, for both steady-state and transient conditions. Comparative calculations made with the BL equations and more exact semi-analytical solutions are used to characterize the accuracy and applicability of the BL approach.     

Moderating effects of self-efficacy for the relationship between training method and anxiety and stress reactions of newcomers

The purpose of this study was to examine the moderating effect of self-efficacy for the relationship between training method and newcomers' anxiety and stress reactions. The two methods of training examined were formal orientation and training and tutorial training. A sample of 198 newly-hired entry-level accountants completed a questionnaire following their first few weeks of entry. The results indicated that self-efficacy was negatively related to anxiety but not stress. However, a positive relationship between anxiety and stress suggested that self-efficacy was indirectly related to stress through its relationship with anxiety. Further, self-efficacy was found to moderate the relationship between training method and anxiety. Formal orientation and training was related to lower anxiety for newcomers with low technical self-efficacy. The opposite result was found for tutorial training. Tutorial training was related to higher anxiety for newcomers with low academic self-efficacy. The relationship between training and anxiety did not vary by training method for newcomers with high self-efficacy. The research and practical implications of a self-efficacy theory framework are discussed for the training, socialization, and adjustment of newcomers.