Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model1

Harshburger, Brian J., Von P. Walden, Karen S. Humes, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2012. Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 643‐655. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00642.x Abstract: As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1‐15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt‐dominated basins in Idaho. Model inputs are derived from meteorological forecasts, snow cover imagery, and surface observations from Snowpack Telemetry stations. The model performed well at lead times up to 7 days, but has significant predictability out to 15 days. The timing of peak flow and the streamflow volume are captured well by the model, but the peak‐flow value is typically low. The model performance was assessed by computing the coefficient of determination (R²), percentage of volume difference (Dv%), and a skill score that quantifies the usefulness of the forecasts relative to climatology. The average R² value for the mean ensemble is >0.8 for all three basins for lead times up to seven days. The Dv% is fairly unbiased (within ±10%) out to seven days in two of the basins, but the model underpredicts Dv% in the third. The average skill scores for all basins are >0.6 for lead times up to seven days, indicating that the ensemble model outperforms climatology. These results validate the usefulness of the ensemble forecasting approach for basins of this type, suggesting that the ensemble version of SRM might be applied successfully to other basins in the Intermountain West.     

Improved sample preparation and GC–MS analysis of priority organic pollutants

Mass spectrometry is a major tool for analysing organic pollutants. However, scientists often complain about laborious sample preparation. The development of new commercial high-resolution mass spectrometers gives a chance to improve simultaneously speed, reliability, and sensitivity of the analysis. Here, we used the time-of-flight high-resolution mass spectrometer Pegasus GC-HRT to identify and quantify 55 priority organic pollutants in water samples. This mass spectrometer has a high resolution of 50,000, a high mass accuracy of about 1 ppm and a very high acquisition rate of up to 200 full mass range spectra per second. 1 mL water samples were extracted with 1 mL dichloromethane. Results show that the sample preparation and analysis are achieved 30 times faster, requiring 1,000 times less water and 350 times less solvent than the classic 8270 method of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. The detection limit is 1 μg/L. The quantification limit is 10 μg/L. Our procedure, named accelerated water sample preparation, is simpler, faster, cheaper, safer and more reliable than 8270 Method.     

Governance models for nature-based solutions: Seventeen cases from Germany

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for mitigating climate change are gaining popularity. The number of NBS is increasing, but research gaps still exist at the governance level. The objectives of this paper are (i) to give an overview of the implemented NBS for flood risk management and mitigation in Germany, (ii) to identify governance models that are applied, and (iii) to explore the differences between these models. The results of a hierarchical clustering procedure and a qualitative analysis show that while no one-size-fits-all governance model exists, polycentricism is an important commonality between the projects. The study concludes by highlighting the need for further research on traditional governance model reconversion and paradigm changes. We expect the findings to identify what has worked in the past, as well as what is important for the implementation of NBS for flood risk management in future projects.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01412-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The effect of growth rate and ageing on colour variation of European pond turtles

Many chelonians have colourful dots, patches and stripes throughout their body that are made up, at least in part, of carotenoids. Therefore, turtles are very suitable models to study the evolution and functionality of carotenoid-based colouration. Recent studies suggested a close link between colouration and immune system in these taxa. However, more research is needed to understand the role of these colourful stripes and patches in turtle visual signalling. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between growth rate and colouration in European pond turtles. In particular, we wanted to answer the question of whether there is a trade-off between growth and colour expression. We also aimed to explore the effect of body size and age on colour variation. Turtles from a reintroduction-breeding program were recaptured, weighed and measured over an 8-year period to estimate their growth rates and age. We also measured with a spectrometer the reflectance of colour patches in two different body parts: shell and forelimb. We found that turtles with a faster growth rate had brighter limb stripes independently of their age. On the other hand, shell colouration was related to body size with larger turtles having brighter shell stripes and higher values of carotenoid chroma. Our results suggest that fast-growers may afford to express intense colourful limb stripes likely due to their higher intake of carotenoids that would modulate both growth and colour expression. However, shell colouration was related to body size probably due to ontogenetic differences in the diet, as juveniles are strictly carnivorous while adults are omnivorous. Alternatively, shell colouration might be involved in crypsis as the shell is visually exposed to predators.     

A novel soil bacterial strain degrading pyridines

Environmental pollution has become one of the most crucial problems of the modern society. Pyridine and its derivatives are one of the most widespread classes of heterocyclic industrial contaminants. Due to rather tough safe levels, thorough purification of the waste waters containing these ecotoxicants is required. However the existing chemical methods are not efficient. On the contrary, microbiological approach seems quite promising. A new strain degrading alkylpyridines was isolated from the soil contaminated with pyridine containing wastes. The strain was identified as Arthrobacter sp. KM-4 (VKM Ac-1098D). The strain completely consumes pyridine (2.5 g/l), 2-methylpyridine (2.5 g/l), 4-methylpyridine (1.5 g/l) and 2,6-dimethylpyridine (3 g/l) in aquatic solutions in 24 h. The intermediate products of the biodegradation process were identified using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC–MS). Degradation schemes were proposed for pyridine and 2-methylpyridine. Previously unknown pathway of pyridines microbial degradation via intermediate formation of pyrrolidines was reliably proved by mass spectra and following synthesis of the identified compounds. New culture significantly surpasses all the known strains in the pyridines’ degrading efficiency. Arthrobacter sp. KM-4 is a promising culture for application for the purification of waste water.     

Information requirements of integrated environmental policy experiences in the Netherlands

During the last few years in the Netherlands an integrated environmental policy has been developed. Solving environmental problems by means of effective and efficient solutions requires that the entire environmental cycle be considered in order to take all relevant compartments and aspects into account. Four different phases can be identified during the treatment of an environmental problem by management: recognition, formulation, solution, and control.Some qualitative and quantitative aspects of the information demand of environmental policy are explored. Special attention is given to the consequences of the integral approach in environmental policy in terms of information requirements. The process of information supply starts with an analysis of the demand. Subsequently data from the environmental cycle have to be selected, aggregated, and presented adequately. Further, integrated environmental policy puts increased demands on the associative power of environmental information systems.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls in Mexican cereals and their packings

The content of polychlorinated biphenyls in Mexican cereals and in their packaging materials was determined. All the samples had polychlorinated biphenyls. In all the food samples and in 73% of the packings, the concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls exceeded the tolerance limits established by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. A correlation was found between the values for polychlorinated biphenyls in the cereals and those in their packings, therefore, it is concluded that the main source of polychlorinated biphenyls in Mexican cereals is the transference of those present in the recycled paperboard used for the packings.     

Metaphyseal chondrodysplasia McKusick type in a Chinese fetus,caused by novel compound heterozygosity 64T> A and 79G >T in RMRPgene

We present the first confirmed case by molecular analysis of a metaphyseal chondrodysplasia, McKusick type, in a 22-week fetus. Two novel compound heterozygous mutations, 64T> A and 79G > T, were found in the highly conserved regions of the RMRP gene. Twenty-two heterozygous g.1018 T> C mutations, two homozygous g.1018 T> C mutations, two heterozygous insertion mutations g.799_g.800insC and one heterozygous insertion mutation g.849_g.850insT were found among 100 normal controls. Careful radiological examination of the fetus for skeletal dysplasia allowed definitive diagnosis, proper genetic counselling and future prenatal diagnosis. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.