Estimating the extinction date of the thylacine with mixed certainty data

The thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), one of Australia's most characteristic megafauna, was the largest marsupial carnivore until hunting, and potentially disease, drove it to extinction in 1936. Although thylacines were restricted to Tasmania for 2 millennia prior to their extinction, recent so‐called plausible sightings on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland have emerged, leading some to speculate the species may have persisted undetected. We compiled a data set that included physical evidence, expert‐validated sightings, and unconfirmed sightings up to the present day and implemented a range of extinction models (focusing on a Bayesian approach that incorporates all 3 types of data by modeling valid and invalid sightings as independent processes) to evaluate the likelihood of the thylacine's persistence. Although the last captive individual died in September 1936, our results suggested that the most likely extinction date would be 1940. Our other extinction models estimated the thylacine's extinction date between 1936 and 1943, and the most optimistic scenario indicated that the species did not persist beyond 1956. The search for the thylacine, much like similar efforts to rediscover other recently extinct charismatic taxa, is likely to be fruitless, especially given that persistence on Tasmania would have been no guarantee the species could reappear in regions that had been unoccupied for millennia. The search for the thylacine may become a rallying point for conservation and wildlife biology and could indirectly help fund and support critical research in understudied areas such as Cape York. However, our results suggest that attempts to rediscover the thylacine will be unsuccessful and that the continued survival of the thylacine is entirely implausible based on most current mathematical theories of extinction.     

Opportunities for better use of collective action theory in research and governance for invasive species management

Controlling invasive species presents a public-good dilemma. Although environmental, social, and economic benefits of control accrue to society, costs are borne by only a few individuals and organizations. For decades, policy makers have used incentives and sanctions to encourage or coerce individual actors to contribute to the public good, with limited success. Diverse, subnational efforts to collectively manage invasive plants, insects, and animals provide effective alternatives to traditional command-and-control approaches. Despite this work, there has been little systematic evaluation of collective efforts to determine whether there are consistent principles underpinning success. We reviewed 32 studies to identify the extent to which collective-action theories from related agricultural and environmental fields explain collaborative invasive species management approaches; describe and differentiate emergent invasive species collective-action efforts; and provide guidance on how to enable more collaborative approaches to invasive species management. We identified 4 types of collective action aimed at invasive species—externally led, community led, comanaged, and organizational coalitions—that provide blueprints for future invasive species management. Existing collective-action theories could explain the importance attributed to developing shared knowledge of the social-ecological system and the need for social capital. Yet, collection action on invasive species requires different types of monitoring, sanctions, and boundary definitions. We argue that future government policies can benefit from establishing flexible boundaries that encourage social learning and enable colocated individuals and organizations to identify common goals, pool resources, and coordinate efforts.     

A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways

Regional Environmental Change - Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall...     

Not if,but when we need resilience in the workplace

Workplace resilience is a necessity for organizations and employees given it assists them in overcoming adversity and ultimately succeeding. However, organizational scholars have largely overlooked this construct. In this Incubator, we briefly summarize extant research on workplace resilience to highlight opportunities for theory building and advancement of empirical research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

Regional Environmental Change - This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5–4 °C...     

A new phylogeny for basal Trechnotheria and Cladotheria and affinities of South American endemic Late Cretaceous mammals

The endemic South American mammals Meridiolestida, considered previously as dryolestoid cladotherians, are found to be non-cladotherian trechnotherians related to spalacotheriid symmetrodontans based on a parsimony analysis of 137 morphological characters among 44 taxa. Spalacotheriidae is the sister taxon to Meridiolestida, and the latter clade is derived from a primitive spalacolestine that migrated to South America from North America at the beginning of the Late Cretaceous. Meridiolestida survived until the early Paleocene (Peligrotherium) and early Miocene (Necrolestes) in South America, and their extinction is probably linked to the increasing competition with metatherian and eutherian tribosphenic mammals. The clade Meridiolestida plus Spalacotheriidae is the sister taxon to Cladotheria and forms a new clade Alethinotheria. Alethinotheria and its sister taxon Zhangheotheria, new clade (Zhangheotheriidae plus basal taxa), comprise Trechnotheria. Cladotheria is divided into Zatheria (plus stem taxa, including Amphitherium) and Dryolestida, including Dryolestidae and a paraphyletic array of basal dryolestidans (formerly classified as “Paurodontidae”). The South American Vincelestes and Groebertherium are basal dryolestidans.     

Enigmatic ungulate-like mammals from the Eocene of Central Asia

A new mammal family, Olseniidae, is proposed based on a complete foot skeleton of cf. Olsenia sp. from the Eocene Toru Ajgyr locality in Kyrgyzstan and an astragalus of Olsenia mira from the Eocene Shara Murun locality in northern China. The new form cf. Olsenia sp. is an early ungulate that combines characteristics of mesonychids, perissodactyls and artiodactyls: tetradactyl and paraxonic foot, terminal phalanges claw-like but not fissured, astragalus with shallow proximal caput and without distal trochlea. This unique character set fills a gap in the fossil record and gives insights into the ungulate phylogeny, which is still not completely understood.     

Tracing the diet of the monitor lizard Varanus mabitang by stable isotope analyses (delta(15)N,delta(13)C)

In this study, we used analyses of stable isotopes of nitrogen ('¹⁵N) and carbon ('¹³C) to determine the trophic ecology of the monitor lizard Varanus mabitang. Stable isotopes from claws, gut contents, and soft tissues were measured from the type specimen. Samples from Varanus olivaceus, Varanus prasinus, Varanus salvator, the herbivorous agamid lizard Hydrosaurus pustulatus, and some plant matter were included for comparison. Our data show a rapid decrease in '¹³C (about10‰) from food plants towards gut contents and soft tissues of herbivorous species. For the varanids, we found a significant linear correlation of decreasing '¹³C and increasing '¹⁵N from herbivorous towards carnivorous species. In terms of trophic isotope ecology, the type specimen of V. mabitang is a strict herbivore. Thus it differs significantly in its isotopic composition from the morphologically next closest related species V. olivaceus. The most highly carnivorous species is V. salvator, while '¹⁵N values for V. prasinus and V. olivaceus are intermediate. Claws provide very valuable samples for such measurements, because they can be sampled from living animals without harm. Additionally, their range of variability is relatively small in comparison with measurements from soft tissues.     

Apportionment of nuptial alkaloidal gifts by a multiply-mated female moth (Utetheisa ornatrix): eggs individually receive alkaloid from more than one male source

Summary. In the moth Utetheisa ornatrix the female is promiscuous and receives a nuptial gift of pyrrolizidine alkaloid (PA) by seminal infusion from each mate. The alkaloidal gifts are transmitted by the female to the eggs, which are protected as a result. We here show that individual eggs may receive PAs from more than one male source and that individual males have no assurance that the PA they themselves contribute to the female will find its way exclusively to eggs of their siring. Received 28 June 2002; accepted 28 August 2002.