This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~200–2,000 km) three-dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model’s credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of limitations of currently used approaches for evaluating regional air quality models, a framework for model evaluation is introduced here for determining the suitability of a modeling system for a given application, distinguishing the performance between different models through confidence-testing of model results, guiding model development and analyzing the impacts of regulatory policy options. The framework identifies operational, diagnostic, dynamic, and probabilistic types of model evaluation. Operational evaluation techniques include statistical and graphical analyses aimed at determining whether model estimates are in agreement with the observations in an overall sense. Diagnostic evaluation focuses on process-oriented analyses to determine whether the individual processes and components of the model system are working correctly, both independently and in combination. Dynamic evaluation assesses the ability of the air quality model to simulate changes in air quality stemming from changes in source emissions and/or meteorology, the principal forces that drive the air quality model. Probabilistic evaluation attempts to assess the confidence that can be placed in model predictions using techniques such as ensemble modeling and Bayesian model averaging. The advantages of these types of model evaluation approaches are discussed in this paper. 相似文献
During the last two decades, the State of Connecticut has restored tidal flow to many impounded salt marshes. One of the first
of these and the one most extensively studied is Impoundment One in the Barn Island Wildlife Management Area in Stonington,
Connecticut. In 1990, twelve years after the re-establishment of tidal flooding, the density of the marsh snail Melampus bidentatus, the numerically dominant macroinvertebrate of the high marsh, in Impoundment One was about half that in reference marshes
below the breached impoundment dike. By 1999 the densities of Melampus above and below the dike were not significantly different, but the shell-free biomass was greater above the dike as a result
of the somewhat larger number and size of the snails there. Twenty-one years after the renewal of tidal flooding, three marsh
macroinvertebrates (the amphipods Orchestia grillus and Uhlorchestia spartinophila and the mussel Geukensia demissa) were significantly less abundant in the previously impounded marsh than in the reference marshes, whereas another amphipod
(Gammarus palustris) was more abundant above the breached dike where conditions appeared to be somewhat wetter. In 1991 the fish assemblage in
a mosquito-control ditch in Impoundment One was similar to that in a ditch below the breached dike; however, the common mummichog
Fundulus heteroclitus appeared to be less abundant in the restoring marsh. By 1999 the number of mummichogs caught in ditches was significantly
greater in Impoundment One than in the reference marsh, but the numbers of mummichogs trapped along the tidal creek were comparable
above and below the dike. The results obtained in this study and those of other restoring marshes at Barn Island indicate
the full recovery of certain animal populations following the reintroduction of tidal flow to impounded marshes may require
up to two or more decades. Furthermore, not only do different species recover at different rates on a single marsh, but the
time required for the recovery of a particular species may vary widely from marsh to marsh, often independently of other species. 相似文献
We tested whether the population structures of intertidal molluscs varied with the activity of human collectors in northern Port Phillip Bay, Victora, Australia. We examined eight sites, two of which had been protected for around 70 years by the area being used as a rifle range with the other six being visited frequently by human. The shores were examined in two different years, and in 1991 we counted humans and recorded their activities. At heavily visited shores, almost half of the people seen were simply walking, while 25% were actively collecting, despite regulations prohibiting the collection of intertidal gastritis. The remaining people were fishing or skydiving. At the protected shores, we observed only one collector and a handful of walkers over more than 20 observation periods, including weekdays, normal weekends, and holiday weekends. In 1989 and 1991, we compared size distributions of seven intertidal species between sites in the two categories. Four mollify species are taken for food and bait; the remaining three served as “controls”. The size distributions and abundance of noncarbonated species (alicized napalm, Leaderless viola, and emization ebonies) did not differ between visited and protected sites in either year, although most species did vary between individual sites. In contrast, three of the four collected species, alicize trampoliners, Austrocochlea constricta, and Nerita atramentosa, were significantly larger at the protected sites, and N. atramentosa was markedly less abundant at heavily visited sites. The fourth collected species, Turbo undulatus, has a distribution extending into the subtidal zone, and it is possible that intertidal populations ate replenished from deeper water. The changes in mean size of molluscs are well within the range reported from South America and South Africa under subsistence fishing, and they demonstrate that at least close to major urban centers, human recreational activities can have substantial effects in developed countries. 相似文献
This paper focuses on changing patterns of substance use among low income, African American drug users evacuated from New Orleans, Louisiana, during Hurricane Katrina of August 2005. It examines the relationship between increases and decreases in alcohol and tobacco (AT) use and illicit drug (ID) use after Katrina and pre‐disaster and within‐disaster factors. Data from structured interviews with 200 Katrina evacuees currently living in Houston were collected 8–14 months after the disaster. Multivariate analysis revealed that rises in AT use were positively associated with education. Females and younger evacuees were more likely to have increased AT use. ID use increase was positively associated with resource loss and leaving the city before Katrina. Decreases in AT and ID use were found to be associated with disaster‐related exposure. The paper discusses the specific consequences of disasters on disadvantaged minority substance users and the importance of developing public health disaster policies that target this population. 相似文献
Thousands of gallons of industrial chemicals, crude 4-methylcyclohexanemethanol (MCHM) and propylene glycol phenyl ether (PPh), leaked from industrial tanks into the Elk River in Charleston, West Virginia, USA, on January 9, 2014. A considerable number of people were reported to exhibit symptoms of chemical exposure and an estimated 300,000 residents were advised not to use or drink tap water. At the time of the spill, the existing toxicological data of the chemicals were limited for a full evaluation of the health risks, resulting in concern among those in the impacted regions. In this preliminary study, we assessed cell viability and plasma membrane degradation following a 24-h exposure to varying concentrations (0–1000 μM) of the two compounds, alone and in combination. Evaluation of different cell lines, HEK-293 (kidney), HepG2 (liver), H9c2 (heart), and GT1-7 (brain), provided insight regarding altered cellular responses in varying organ systems. Single exposure to MCHM or PPh did not affect cell viability, except at doses much higher than the estimated exposure levels. Certain co-exposures significantly reduced metabolic activity and increased plasma membrane degradation in GT1-7, HepG2, and H9c2 cells. These findings highlight the importance of examining co-exposures to fully understand the potential toxic effects. 相似文献
The simultaneous fate of organic matter and 4 endocrine disruptors (3 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (fluoranthene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, and benzo(a)pyrene) and nonylphenols (NP)) was studied during the anaerobic digestion followed by composting of sludge at lab-scale. Sludge organic matter was characterized, thanks to chemical fractionation and 3D fluorescence deciphering its accessibility and biodegradability. Total chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal was 41% and 56% during anaerobic digestion and composting, respectively. 3D fluorescence highlighted the quality changes of organic matter. During continuous anaerobic digestion, organic micropollutants’ removal was 22?±?14%, 6?±?5%, 18?±?9%, and 0% for fluoranthene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(a)pyrene, and nonylphenols, respectively. Discontinuous composting allowed to go further on the organic micropollutants’ removal as 34?±?8%, 31?±?20%, 38?±?10%, and 52?±?6% of fluoranthene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(a)pyrene, and nonylphenols were dissipated, respectively. Moreover, the accessibility of PAH and NP expressed by their presence in the various sludge organic matter fractions and its evolution during both treatments was linked to both the quality evolution of the organic matter and the physicochemical properties of the PAH and NP; the presence in most accessible fractions explained the amount of PAH and NP dissipated.
Drinking bottles and stove-top moka pots made of aluminum have become very popular. Storing drinks in bottles and preparing coffee in a moka pot may result in the migration of aluminum to the beverage.
Results/Conclusions
In a systematic study of aluminum drinking bottles, it has been shown that drinking a mixture of apple juice and mineral water in an aluminum bottle may reach 86.6% of the total weekly intake (TWI) for adults, and drinking tea from an aluminum bottle may exceed the TWI (145%) for a child weighing 15 kg. In contrast, preparing coffee in an aluminum moka pot results in a maximum of 4% to TWI, if an average of 3.17 L coffee is consumed per week, even if the pots are washed in the dishwasher, against the explicit instructions of the manufacturer.
In spite of the prevalence of aluminum in nature, no organism has been found to date which requires this element for its biological functions. The possible health risks to human beings resulting from uptake of aluminum include detrimental effects to the hemopoietic system, the nervous system and bones. Aluminum is used in many fields and occurs in numerous foodstuffs. Food contact materials containing aluminum represent an anthropogenic source of dietary aluminum.
Results
As a result of their frequent use in private households a study was undertaken to detect migration of this metal to foodstuffs from drink containers, coffee pots, grill pans, and camping cookware made of aluminum.
Conclusions
An estimate of the health risk to consumers is calculated, based on the tolerable weekly intake (TWI) specified by the European Food Safety Authority of 1 mg/kg body weight for all groups of people. In some instances the TWI is significantly exceeded, dependent upon the food contact material and the food itself.
This study focused on the exposure of the common ragworm Hediste diversicolor (Müller 1776) to sediments enriched with different arsenic compounds, namely arsenate, dimethyl-arsinate, and arsenobetaine. Speciation analysis was carried out on both the spiked sediments and the exposed polychaetes in order to investigate H. diversicolor capability of arsenic bioaccumulation and biotransformation. Two levels of contamination (acute and moderate dose) were chosen for enriched sediments to investigate possible differences in the arsenic bioaccumulation patterns. The highest value of arsenic in tissues was reached after 15 days of exposure to dimethyl-arsinate (acute dose) spiked sediment (1,172?±?176 μg/g). A significant increase was also obtained in worms exposed both to arsenate and arsenobetaine. Speciation analysis showed that trimethyl-arsine oxide was the predominant chemical form in tissues of H. diversicolor exposed to all the spiked sediments, confirming the importance of this intermediate in biological transformation of arsenic. 相似文献