Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

A review of the chemical ecology of the Cerambycidae (Coleoptera)

Summary. This review summarizes the literature related to the chemical ecology of the Cerambycidae and provides a brief overview of cerambycid biology, ecology, economic significance, and management. Beetles in the family Cerambycidae have assumed increasing prominence as pests of forest and shade trees, shrubs, and raw wood products, and as vectors of tree diseases. Exotic species associated with solid wood packing materials have been notable tree killers in North American urban and peri-urban forests. In forested ecosystems native species respond to disturbances such as fires and windstorms, and initiate the biodeterioration of woody tissue. Eggs are laid by females, on or through the bark surface of stem and branch tissue of moribund, recently killed or decomposing woody plants; larval cerambycids (roundheaded woodborers) typically feed in the phloem and later in the xylem. Females will also, in some cases, select living hosts, e.g. adult conifer and angiosperm trees, for oviposition. Research on the chemical ecology of over 70 species has revealed many examples of attractive kairomones (such as floral volatiles, smoke volatiles, trunk and leaf volatiles, and bark beetle pheromones), repellents and deterrents, oviposition stimulants, short- and long-range sex pheromones, and defensive substances. Emerging generalities are that attractants tend to be monoterpenoids and phenolic esters; oviposition stimulants are monoterpenoids and flavanoids; short-range sex pheromones are female-produced, methyl-branched cuticular hydrocarbons; and long-range sex pheromones are male-produced -hydroxy ketones and (,)-diols ranging in length from 6 to 10 carbons. The latter compounds appear to originate from glands in the male thorax; putative defensive substances originate from metasternal secretory pores or mandibular glands. In one unusual case, a flightless, subterranean female that attacks sugar cane produces a sex pheromone that is derived from the amino acid isoleucine. With significantly more than 35,000 species of Cerambycidae worldwide, these generalities will be subject to change as more species are examined. Addendum The authors would like to point out that the electronic version is more accurate than the printed version.     

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND SOCIAL CAPITAL: KEYS TO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SUCCESS IN ALABAMA1

ABSTRACT: Forces driving the initiation of watershed management activities in Alabama have ranged from top-down, agency-led initiatives to bottom-up, citizen-led initiatives. A number of watershed projects in Alabama were examined including three NPS projects funded by U.S. EPA grants and a more comprehensive locally-initiated watershed management authority. Watershed projects were categorized into four different models. Factors which produced significant differences in the development and utilization of social capital and local capacities for watershed management were investigated. The success of watershed management initiatives was examined qualitatively and appears to correlate with a number of social factors. These factors include the extent of stakeholder involvement, the availability of social capital in the watershed, and the presence of a real or perceived water resource concern or problem. Both short term project success and the longer term prognosis for continued watershed management activities seems to depend most upon the amount of social capital in the watershed. Two major changes in resource management programs and organizations could lead to increased focus on and support for local watershed management initiatives. These are reorganization of resource management agencies around watershed units, and assignment of at least one staff person in each watershed unit to watershed management.     

Divorce in common murres (Uria aalge): relationship to parental quality

Behavioral precursors of 12 divorces were examined in 30 color-banded pairs of common murres (Uria aalge) over six breeding seasons. Common murres are long-lived seabirds that typically return each year to the same mate and nest site in dense colonies. At least one parent is present continuously from egg lay to chick fledging. Murres, therefore, have considerable opportunities to compare their mates parental behavior with that of several familiar neighbors. Previous reproductive success was lower for divorcing birds than for reuniting pairs. As predicted by the better option hypothesis, there were clear choosers (seven females and five males) that initiated divorce by moving to a new birds site or by courting a new partner at their current site. Choosers improved their reproductive success after the divorce, whereas their previous partners, the victims did not. Yearly divorce rates (average 8.2% per year) were significantly correlated with yearly mortality rates. Divorces appear to be opportunistic: pairs divorced after varying numbers of reproductive failures with the immediate precursor usually being the disappearance (death) of a murre from a successful neighboring site. In contrast to the delays experienced by victims, choosers formed new pairs quickly and laid their eggs no later than reuniting pairs. Prior to the divorce, victims fed their chicks less often than choosers, and some engaged in other behaviors that compromised egg or chick survival. These observations suggest that deficiencies in parental behavior were precursors to the divorce. This report is one of the first cases where reproductive failure of divorcing pairs has been linked to deficits in the parental behavior of the subsequent divorce victim.Communicated by C. Brown     

Modeling the Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Source and Sink Demography of Neotropical Migrant Birds

Many songbird populations in the midwestem United States are structured as a network of sources and sinks that are linked by dispersal. We used a modeling approach to examine explicitly how populations respond to incremental fragmentation of source habitat and how this response may vary depending upon two life-history attributes: fidelity to natal habitat type and reproductive strength of the source. Fragmentation of source habitat led to a predictable decline in population for both attributes examined, but the manner in which populations declined varied depending upon the reproductive strength of the source and the level of fidelity. When the source was weak and produced few excess individuals, fragmentation of source habitats resulted in a predictable and parallel population decline of adults in both the source and the sink. In this situation high fidelity to natal habitats was important for maintenance of population size and structure. Low fidelity to weak sources resulted in population extinction; populations experienced a demographic cost by dispersing from high quality source habitat to low quality sink habitat. In contrast, when the source was strong and produced many excess individuals, fragmentation of the source led to population declines in both the source and the sink, but this decline was more abrupt in sink habitats. When the source was strong and produced a large excess of individuals, nonfidelity to natal habitats had little effect on metapopulation size and structure.     

Prenatal diagnosis of medium-chain acyl-coenzyme A dehydrogenase deficiency

A fatal case of medium-chain acyl-coenzyme A dehydrogenase deficiency is described in a patient who presented with hypoglycaemia and a gross non-ketotic dicarboxylic aciduria. Cultured skin fibroblasts released ¹⁴CO₂ from [1–¹⁴C] octanoic acid at half the normal rate. Prenatal diagnosis was undertaken in a subsequent pregnancy in which cultured amniotic fluid cells revealed a marked reduction in octanoate oxidation indicative of an affected fetus. The pregnancy was terminated and the diagnosis was confirmed by enzyme analysis of skin fibroblasts taken from the fetus. The high residual octanoate oxidation by affected fibroblasts together with the absence of any characteristic abnormality of amniotic fluid organic acids are a potential limitation to the reliability of this type of prenatal diagnosis.     

Comparison of the MOVES2010a,MOBILE6.2, and EMFAC2007 mobile source emission models with on-road traffic tunnel and remote sensing measurements

The Desert Research Institute conducted an on-road mobile source emission study at a traffic tunnel in Van Nuys, California, in August 2010 to measure fleet-averaged, fuel-based emission factors. The study also included remote sensing device (RSD) measurements by the University of Denver of 13,000 vehicles near the tunnel. The tunnel and RSD fleet-averaged emission factors were compared in blind fashion with the corresponding modeled factors calculated by ENVIRON International Corporation using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) MOVES2010a (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) and MOBILE6.2 mobile source emission models, and California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) EMFAC2007 (EMission FACtors) emission model. With some exceptions, the fleet-averaged tunnel, RSD, and modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and oxide of nitrogen (NO_x) emission factors were in reasonable agreement (±25%). The nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emission factors (specifically the running evaporative emissions) predicted by MOVES were insensitive to ambient temperature as compared with the tunnel measurements and the MOBILE- and EMFAC-predicted emission factors, resulting in underestimation of the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios at higher ambient temperatures. Although predicted NMHC/NO_x ratios are in good agreement with the measured ratios during cooler sampling periods, the measured NMHC/NO_x ratios are 3.1, 1.7, and 1.4 times higher than those predicted by the MOVES, MOBILE, and EMFAC models, respectively, during high-temperature periods. Although the MOVES NO_x emission factors were generally higher than the measured factors, most differences were not significant considering the variations in the modeled factors using alternative vehicle operating cycles to represent the driving conditions in the tunnel. The three models predicted large differences in NO_x and particle emissions and in the relative contributions of diesel and gasoline vehicles to total NO_x and particulate carbon (TC) emissions in the tunnel.

Implications: Although advances have been made to mobile source emission models over the past two decades, the evidence that mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in urban areas were underestimated by as much as a factor of 2–3 in past inventories underscores the need for on-going verification of emission inventories. Results suggest that there is an overall increase in motor vehicle NMHC emissions on hot days that is not fully accounted for by the emission models. Hot temperatures and concomitant higher ratios of NMHC emissions relative to NO_x both contribute to more rapid and efficient formation of ozone. Also, the ability of EPA's MOVES model to simulate varying vehicle operating modes places increased importance on the choice of operating modes to evaluate project-level emissions.     

Cotinine concentrations in follicular fluid as a measure of secondhand tobacco smoke exposure in women undergoing in vitro fertilization: inter-matrix comparisons with urine and temporal variability

We examined the relationship between cotinine measures in follicular fluid (FF) and urine to inform our exposure assessment strategy for an ongoing epidemiological study of secondhand tobacco smoke (STS) exposure and early pregnancy loss. Among subjects undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF), we compared cotinine levels in paired urine and FF samples from the same women and examined FF cotinine levels over time. We found a weak rank-order relationship (Spearman r < 0.2) and poor agreement for classifying nonsmoking individuals as exposed to STS (sensitivity = 0.29-0.71; specificity = 0.35-0.72) between cotinine concentrations in FF and urine. We observed fair reliability (ICC = 0.42-0.52) in FF cotinine concentrations from women undergoing multiple IVF cycles. If available, FF cotinine concentrations may be desired as a biomarker of low-level tobacco smoke exposure over urinary cotinine in studies of early reproduction. Collection of multiple FF samples for cotinine analysis may be needed to accurately represent long-term STS exposure.