Satellite-Derived Mean Fire Return Intervals As Indicators Of Change In Siberia (1995–2002)

Under current climate change scenarios, temperatures in Siberia are expected to increase, and consequently, fire is also expected to increase. Potential climate-induced change is difficult to assess in Siberia because ground-based fire data are not complete. This investigation introduces a method by which potential climate-induced change can be remotely evaluated. Mean fire return intervals are established for 58 ecosystems across Siberia using eight years of satellite-based area burned data (1995 to 2002). Mean fire return intervals should decrease under current climate change scenarios, however the results do not currently demonstrate consistent evidence of fire-induced change. The overall boreal forest mean fire return interval is lower than the published mean, inferring increased fire. Most notably, using satellite data to calculate mean fire return intervals in individual ecosystems for the entire population of fire is shown to be a viable method by which potential climate-induced land cover change can be evaluated.     

A semi-automated tool for identifying agricultural roadway crashes in crash narratives

Objective: Crash reports contain precoded structured data fields and a crash narrative that can be a source of rich information not included in the structured data. The narrative can be useful for identifying vulnerable roadway users, such as agricultural workers. However, using the narratives often requires manual reviews that are time consuming and costly. The objective of this research was to develop a simple and relatively inexpensive, semi-automated tool for screening crash narratives and expediting the process of identifying crashes with specific characteristics, such as agricultural crashes.

Methods: Crash records for Louisiana from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from the Louisiana Department of Transportation (LaDOTD). Records with narratives were extracted and stratified by vehicle type. The majority of analyses focused on a vehicle type of farm equipment (Type T). Two keyword lists, an inclusion list and an exclusion list, were created based on the published literature, subject-matter experts, and findings from a pilot project. Next, a semi-automated tool was developed in Microsoft Excel to identify agricultural crashes. Lastly, the tool’s performance was assessed using a gold standard set of agricultural narratives identified through manual review.

Results: The tool reduced the search space (e.g., number of narratives that need manual review) for narratives requiring manual review from 6.7 to 59.4% depending on the research question. Sensitivity was high, with 96.1% of agricultural crash narratives being correctly classified. Of the gold standard agricultural narratives, 58.3% included an equipment keyword and 72.8% included a farm equipment brand.

Conclusion: This article provides information on how crash narratives can supplement structured crash data. It also provides an easy-to-implement method to facilitate incorporating narratives into safety research along with keyword lists for identifying agricultural crashes.     

How Technology Features Influence Public Response to New Agrifood Technologies

New agrifood technologies are often difficult to grasp for the public, which may lead to resistance or even rejection. Insight into which technology features determine public acceptability of the technology could offer guidelines for responsible technology development. This paper systematically assesses the relative importance of specific technology features for consumer response in the agrifood domain in two consecutive studies. Prominent technology features were selected from expert judgment and literature. The effects of these features on consumer evaluation were tested in a consumer study (n = 745). Fictitious technologies were used to avoid any uncontrollable contextual influences that existing new technologies may evoke. Results show that technologies that were seen as more natural and newer were perceived less risky, more beneficial, and were evaluated more positively. Technologies applied to food were judged to be more beneficial, but also more risky than those applied to non-food. Technologies used in the production process were perceived to be less risky and evaluated more positively than those used in the product. Technologies owned by the market leader were perceived to be more beneficial, and evaluated more positively than those that were freely available. In a next study (n = 440), effects of the technology features on consumer response were tested for existing new agrifood technologies. This study replicated the results for perceived naturalness, perceived newness, and place in the production process where the technology is applied. However, in contrast to the first study, we did not find an effect of application area (food versus non-food) and technology ownership.     

Comparison of recidivism rates for a teenage trauma prevention program after the addition of high-fidelity patient simulation

Objectives: We evaluated the benefits of adding high-fidelity simulation to a teenage trauma prevention program to decrease recidivism rates and encourage teens to discuss actionable steps toward safe driving.

Methods: A simulated pediatric trauma scenario was integrated into an established trauma prevention program. Participants were recruited because they were court-ordered to attend this program after misdemeanor convictions for moving violations. The teenage participants viewed this simulation from the emergency medical services (EMS) handoff to complete trauma care. Participants completed a postsimulation knowledge assessment and care evaluation, which included narrative data about the experience. Qualitative analysis of color-coded responses identified common themes and experiences in participants' answers. Court records were reviewed 6 years after course completion to determine short- and long-term recidivism rates, which were then compared to our program's historical rate.

Results: One hundred twenty-four students aged 16–20 years participated over a 2-year study period. Narrative responses included general reflection, impressions, and thoughts about what they might change as a result of the course. Participants reported that they would decrease speed (30%), wear seat belts (15%), decrease cell phone use (11%), and increase caution (28%). The recidivism rate was 55% within 6 years. At 6 months it was 8.4%, at 1 year it was 20%, and it increased approximately 5–8% per year after the first year. Compared with our programs, for historical 6-month and 2-year recidivism rates, no significant difference was seen with or without simulation.

Conclusions: Adding simulation is well received by participants and leads to positive reflections regarding changes in risk-taking behaviors but resulted in no changes to the high recidivism rates This may be due to the often ineffectiveness of fear appeals.