A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services.     

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

The effects of temperature on decomposition and allelopathic phytotoxicity of boneseed litter

Decomposition of plant litter is a fundamental process in ecosystem function, carbon and nutrient cycling and, by extension, climate change. This study aimed to investigate the role of temperature on the decomposition of water soluble phenolics(WSP), carbon and soil nutrients in conjunction with the phytotoxicity dynamics of Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. monilifera(boneseed) litter. Treatments consisted of three factors including decomposition materials(litter alone, litter with soil and soil alone), decomposition periods and temperatures(5–15, 15–25and 25–35°C(night/day)). Leachates were collected on 0, 5, 10, 20, 40 and 60 th days to analyse physico-chemical parameters and phytotoxicity. Water soluble phenolics and dissolved organic carbon(DOC) increased with increasing temperature while nutrients like SO-24 and NO-13 decreased. Speed of germination, hypocotyl and radical length and weight of Lactuca sativa exposed to leachates were decreased with increasing decomposition temperature. All treatment components had significant effects on these parameters. There had a strong correlation between DOC and WSP, and WSP content of the leachates with radical length of test species. This study identified complex interactivity among temperature, WSP, DOC and soil nutrient dynamics of litter occupied soil and that these factors work together to influence phytotoxicity.     

Learning lessons from the 2011 Van Earthquake to enhance healthcare surge capacity in Turkey

Historically, Turkey has adopted a reactive approach to natural hazards which resulted in significant losses. However, following the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake, a more proactive approach has been adopted. This study aims to explore the way this new approach operates on the ground. A multinational and multidisciplinary team conducted a field investigation following the 2011 Van Earthquake to identify lessons to inform healthcare emergency planning in Turkey and elsewhere. The team interviewed selected stakeholders including, healthcare emergency responders, search and rescue services, ambulance services, and health authority representatives, in addition to conducting a focus group. Data were analysed according to an open coding process and SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat) analysis. The findings suggest that the approach succeeded in developing a single vision by consolidating official efforts in a more structured way, mobilising many governmental and non-governmental organisations, securing significant amounts of resources including physical and human, and increasing the resilience and flexibility of infrastructure to expand its capacity. However, more attention is required to the development of stronger management procedures and acquisition of further resources.     

Sources of organisational resiliency during the Thailand floods of 2011: a test of the bonding and bridging hypotheses

Based on the Institutional Collective Action framework, this research tests the impact of two competing hypotheses—bonding and bridging—on enhancing organisational resiliency. The bonding hypothesis posits that organisational resiliency can be achieved if an organisation works closely with others, whereas the bridging hypothesis argues that such a structure places considerable stress on an organisation and advocates for an organisation to position itself as a central actor to gain access to novel resources from a diverse set of entities to achieve resiliency. The paper analyses data gathered from semi‐structured interviews with 44 public, private, and non‐profit organisations serving communities affected by the Great Floods of 2011 in the Thai capital, Bangkok (urban), and in Pathum Thani (suburban) and Ayutthaya (rural) provinces. The findings suggest that: organisational resiliency was associated with the bridging effect; organisations in the rural province were more resilient than those in the suburban and urban centres; and private and non‐governmental organisations generally were more resilient than public sector organisations. The findings highlight the importance of fostering multi‐sector partnerships to enhance organisational resiliency for disaster response.     

Dissolved phosphorus export from an animal waste impacted in-stream wetland: response to tropical storm and hurricane disturbance

The ability of wetlands to retain P makes them an important landscape feature that buffers P movement. However, their P retention ability can be compromised through hydrologic disturbances caused by hurricanes and tropical storms (TS). This study had three objectives: (i) to determine the effects of hurricanes and TS on dissolved phosphorus (DP) concentrations and loads discharged from a Coastal Plain in-stream wetland (ISW); (ii) to evaluate shifts in P storage pools that would reflect P accretion/removal patterns; and (iii) to determine if relationships exist between storm characteristics with releases of DP and water volume. From January 1996 to October 1999, the ISW's outflow DP concentrations and flow volumes (Q) were measured and they were used to calculate DP mass export loads. In addition, the sediment total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were measured, and both the water column and sediment pore water DP concentrations were examined using passive samplers. In several instances, TS facilitated greater DP releases than a single hurricane event. The largest release of DP occurred in 1999 after Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd, and Irene. The large differences in DP exports among the storms were explained by Q variations. Storm activity also caused changes in sediment pore water DP and sediment TP concentrations. This study revealed that some TS events caused higher DP releases than a single hurricane; however, multiple hurricanes delivering heavy precipitation totals significantly increased DP export.     

Fire effects on stable isotopes in a Sierran forested watershed

This study tested the hypothesis that stable C and N isotope values in surface soil and litter would be increased by fire due to volatilization of lighter isotopes. The hypothesis was tested by: (1) performing experimental laboratory burns of organic and mineral soil materials from a watershed at combinations of temperature ranging 100 to 600 degrees C and duration ranging from 1 to 60 min; (2) testing field samples of upland soils before, shortly after, and 1 yr following a wildfire in the same watershed; and (3) testing field soil samples from a down-gradient ash/sediment depositional area in a riparian zone following a runoff event after the wildfire. Muffle furnace results indicated the most effective temperature range for using stable isotopes for tracing fire impacts is 200 to 400 degrees C because lower burn temperatures may not produce strong isotopic shifts, and at temperatures>or=600 degrees C, N and C content of residual material is too low. Analyses of field soil samples were inconclusive: there was a slightly significant effect of the wildfire on delta15N values in upland watershed analyses 1 yr postburn, while riparian zone analyses results indicated that delta13C values significantly decreased approximately 0.71 per thousand over a 9 mo post-fire period (p=0.015), and ash/sediment layer delta13C values were approximately 0.65 per thousand higher than those in the A horizon. The lack of field confirmation may have been due to overall wildfire burn temperatures being <200 degrees C and/or microbial recovery and vegetative growth in the field. Thus, the muffle furnace experiment supported the hypothesis, but it is as yet unconfirmed by actual wildfire field data.     

Dendrochemical record of historical lead contamination sources, Wells G&H Superfund site, Woburn, Massachusetts

Laser-ablation inductively coupled-plasma mass-spectrometry analysis of red oak (Quercus rubra) from a well documented heavy metal contaminated United States Environmental Protection Agency superfund site in Woburn, Massachusetts reveals decade-long trends in Pb contaminant sources. Lead isotope ratios (207Pb/206Pb and 208Pb/206Pb) in tree rings plot along a linear trend bracketed by several local and regional contamination sources. Statistically significant interannual variations in 207Pb/206Pb suggest that atmospheric Pb is rapidly incorporated into wood, with minimal mobility subsequent to deposition in annual growth rings. We interpret the decadal trends in our record as a changing mixture of local pollution sources and gasoline-derived Pb. Between 1940 and 1970, Pb was predominantly derived from remobilization of local industrial Pb sources. An abrupt shift in 207Pb/206Pb may indicate that local Pb sources were overwhelmed by gasoline-derived Pb during the peak of leaded gasoline emissions in the late 1960s and early 1970s.     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.