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Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
13.
S. S. S. Sarma Saúl Avelino Rivera Fabiola Elizalde Hinojosa S. Nandini 《Russian Journal of Ecology》2007,38(5):353-362
We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 6) and high food levels (1.5 × 106 cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food
led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the
competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population
increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter.
Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390.
The article was submitted by the authors in English. 相似文献
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Tanay B. Yıldırım Tutku Ak Zuhal Ölmez 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2008,10(6):871-881
While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined. 相似文献
16.
Christophe Pélabon Jean-Michel Gaillard Anne Loison Christine Portier 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1995,37(5):311-319
We examined data on sex-specific differences in neonatal weight, litter size and adult female body weight in 32 populations of polygynous ungulates of 18 different species to test for the existence of a trade-off between sex-biased maternal care and the total amount of maternal expenditure. This corresponds to an extension of the hypothesis of Byers and Moodie (1990) that sex-biased maternal care is limited by a high level of maternal expenditure. We did not find any relationship between sex-biased care and two measures of total maternal expenditure. We highlighted high intraspecific variability in sex-biased care and very low intraspecific variability in total maternal expenditure. Even when this between-population variability in sex-biased care was accounted for, no relationship between sex-biased maternal care and maternal expenditure was detected. Apart from difficulties in finding suitable measures for both variables, two other reasons may account for the lack of a relationship between sex-biased maternal care and total maternal expenditure. Firstly, male offspring seem to be more affected than female offspring by harsh environmental conditions. This may lead to the variation observed in the extent of sex-specific differences in birth weight within a single species. If we assume that for a given maternal expenditure reproductive costs incurred by mothers are highest during harsh conditions, this could indicate the existence of a trade-off between sex-biased maternal care and maternal expenditure at the intra-specific level, thereby supporting the Byers and Moodie hypothesis. Secondly, polygyny is only a poor predictor of sex-biased care and factors such as compensatory growth or extended periods of growth may be expected to modify predictions for different species. Thus, environmental conditions and relative effects of maternal care on male and female lifetime reproductive success are better predictors of sex-biased care than total maternal expenditure.Communicated by P.M. Kappeler 相似文献
17.
Mark Walker W. Douglass Shaw Marnee Benson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(5):1363-1370
ABSTRACT: Churchill County, Nevada, has approximately 23,000 residents, among whom an estimated 13,500 relied on private wells for water supply in 2002. This study examined exposure to arsenic in water supplies among residents with private domestic wells and factors related to householder choice to consume tap water. It compared opinions and concerns about water quality with consumption habits and observed concentrations from tap water samples. The results from 351 households indicated that a majority (75 percent) of respondents consumed tap water and that a minority (38 percent) applied treatment. Approximately 66 percent of those who consumed tap water were exposed to concentrations of arsenic that exceeded 10 ppb. Water consumption was related to application of treatment. Among 98 respondents who were not at all concerned about the health effects of aqueous arsenic, 59 (60 percent) reported consuming tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Conversely, among 86 respondents who were highly concerned about arsenic, 33 (37 percent) consumed tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Results from a national sampling effort showed that 620 of 5,304 private wells sampled (11.7 percent) had arsenic concentrations above 10 ppb. The paradox of awareness of arsenic in water supplies coupled with consumption of aqueous arsenic in concentrations greater than 10 ppb may be common in other parts of the nation. Enhanced educational efforts, especially related to tap water sampling and explanations of efficacy of available treatment, may be useful means of reducing exposure through private water supplies. 相似文献
18.
Incubation period, hatching success, and emergence percentage in loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nests were quantified during the 1993 and 1995 nesting seasons and following incubation seasons in Minabe, Wakayama, Japan. Sand and nest temperatures were also monitored. Over the seasons, daily mean sand temperature at nest depth fluctuated between 18.0°C and 33.3°C, with a steep increase in the second week of July and a peak in late August. Temperatures inside the nest chambers were a few degrees above those of the surrounding sand at the end of incubation. The incubation period ranged from 46 to 82 days. A significant negative correlation was found between mean sand temperature and incubation period. The relationship conformed to the day-degree concept. There was no significant seasonal trend in hatching success, but many pre-emergent hatchlings were found dead in most of the clutches during the warmest part of the season. Emergence percentage was correlated with mean sand temperature calculated for 4 days before emergence, suggesting that mortality may be due to heat. This heat-related mortality is considered to be a common phenomenon at our study site, because the peak in emergences coincides with the peak in high temperatures. These temperature effects on hatchling mortality must be taken into account in estimates of hatchling sex ratios. Because sand temperatures already exceed the optimal thermal range for incubation, this population is vulnerable to even small temperature increases resulting from global warming. 相似文献
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