IMPROVING REGIONAL-MODEL ESTIMATES OF URBAN-RUNOFF QUALITY USING LOCAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Urban water-quality managers need load estimates of storm-runoff pollutants to design effective remedial programs. Estimates are commonly made using published models calibrated to large regions of the country. This paper presents statistical methods, termed model-adjustment procedures (MAPs), which use a combination of local data and published regional models to improve estimates of urban-runoff quality. Each MAP is a form of regression analysis that uses a local data base as a calibration data set to adjust the regional model, in effect increasing the size of the local data base without additional, expensive data collection. The adjusted regional model can then be used to estimate storm-runoff quality at unmonitored sites and storms in the locality. The four MAPs presented in this study are (1) single-factor regression against the regional model prediction, P_u; (2) least-squares regression against P_u; (3) least-squares regression against P_u and additional local variables; and (4) weighted combination of P_u and a local-regression prediction. Identification of the statistically most valid method among these four depends upon characteristics of the local data base. A MAP-selection scheme based on statistical analysis of the calibration data set is presented and tested.     

NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF PUMPING FROM CONFINED-UNCONFINED AQUIFERS1

ABSTRACT: A numerical method is presented for the analysis of a pumped well in a homogeneous aquifer with allowance made for the decrease in saturated depth, vertical components of flow, the possibility of regions of the aquifer changing between the confined and unconfined states and the effect of different outer boundaries. The method is based on a discrete space, backward difference time, approximation. A particular example considered in detail concerns heavy pumping from one of a regular array of wells in an unconfined aquifer until the drawdown in the well reaches a critical value. Non-dimensional curves are presented relating the time and volume dewatered to the quantity discharged from the well. A further example investigates the effect of an initial confining pressure on the aquifer behaviour.     

Pulling up roots in the 1990s: Who's willing to relocate?

The purpose of this study was to develop a profile of employees in Fortune 500 companies who are willing to relocate. The profile was developed on a demographically diverse random sample of 827 employees from 20 Fortune 500 corporations, all of whom had moved at least once for their current employer. Employees who were most willing to relocate were younger, their incomes were lower, their career ambitions higher, and their spouses more willing than those who were less willing to relocate. These employees could be found in sales/marketing and production functions. Their attitudes toward moving were also favorable. The single most important predictor of willingness to relocate was spouse willingness to relocate. This result suggests strongly that in the 1990s, corporations are going to have to address the concerns of spouses, if married employees are going to remain mobile. The study also cautions corporations about the shortsightedness of thinking of spouse and dual career issues as ’women's issues‘ and assuming that females and minorities are unwilling to relocate.     

Opportunity costs of implementing forest plans

Intellectual concern with the National Forest Management Act of 1976 has followed a course emphasizing the planning aspects of the legislation associated with the development of forest plans. Once approved, however, forest plans must be implemented. Due to the complex nature of the ecological systems of interest, and the multiple and often conflicting desires of user clientele groups, the feasibility and costs of implementing forest plans require immediate investigation. For one timber sale on the Coconino National Forest in Arizona, forest plan constraints were applied and resulting resource outputs predicted using the terrestrial ecosystem analysis and modeling system (TEAMS), a computer-based decision support system developed at the School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, With forest plan constraints for wildlife habitat, visual diversity, riparian area protection, and soil and slope harvesting restrictions, the maximum timber harvest obtainable was reduced 58% from the maximum obtainable without plan constraints.Former Graduate Student at Northern Arizona University.     

Dual earner couples: Attitudes and actions in restructuring work for family

In a matched data set consisting of survey responses from both members of 39 dual earner couples, work and family involvement was used to predict job satisfaction, marital satisfaction, stress and work restructuring of both members of the couple. In general, the wives were found to be restructuring their work activities more than their husbands. Couples whose members had high levels of family involvement were experiencing high levels of marital satisfaction and low levels of stress. In addition, the coded responses to seven open ended questions provided qualitative data reflecting what specific types of work restructuring arrangements were most popular and the reasons for work restructuring.     

Sources of variability in plant toxicity testing

Published literature is investigated regarding the response of plants to various substances to determine the sensitivity of agricultural plants versus other species, the similarity of effects seen at different taxonomic levels, sensitivity of plants growing outdoors versus in a greenhouse, and the sensitivity of different measurement endpoints. We find that agricultural species are not consistently more or less sensitive to the herbicides tested than non-crop species. Genus and family taxonomic groupings may show similar responses among species, but this similarity quickly decreases as the comparison progress between orders and classes. Results from field and greenhouse studies are less in agreement between studies than data from the other topics. Shoot length will be affected at concentrations lower than for other vegetative endpoints for most species tested for inorganic substances, but for organic substances root and shoot mass were more sensitive. Overall, there is no one species or endpoint that is consistently the most sensitive for all species or all chemicals in all soils, and differences in bioavailability among compounds may confound comparison of test results. Therefore, species sensitivity distributions, adjusted for bioavailability when possible, should be considered in order to better evaluate effects to non-target terrestrial plants.     

Analysis of some organochlorine pesticides in an urban atmosphere (Strasbourg, east of France)

High volume samples of urban air have been collected in Strasbourg, a big city situated in the east of France, for the evaluation of the contamination by organochlorine pesticides. Pesticides (p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDE, aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, gamma-HCH, cis-chlordane, trans-chlordane, alpha-endosulfan, beta-endosulfan, hexachlorobenzene, heptachlor and some of their metabolites: alpha-HCH, 2,4'-DDT, 2,4'-DDD and 2,4'-DDE) were analysed by GC-ECD. Prior to analysis, samples were Soxhlet extracted with a mixture of n-hexane/methylene chloride. The analysis of samples collected in 2001 (n = 6), 2002 (n = 7) and 2003 (n = 5) shows that alpha-HCH and gamma-HCH were detected in all samples (between 0.05 and 4 ng m(-3) and between 0.01 and 1 ng m(-3), respectively) along with aldrin and dieldrin at lower concentrations (between 0.01 and 0.08 ng m(-3) and between 0.02 and 0.09 ng m(-3), respectively). Other pesticides were detected very randomly at very low concentrations. The calculation of the alpha/gamma-HCH ratio shows that hexachlorocyclohexane measured in the atmosphere have a local origin and come probably from contaminated soil by volatilisation. alpha and beta-endosulfan were practically not detected in samples collected in 2001 and 2002 while they were always measured in the gas phase in samples from 2003. This observation can be explained by an increase of volatilisation with the increase of the air temperature. In July, temperature were higher (between 17 and 30 degrees C in climatic station) than in March-May 2001 and 2002 (between 2 and 19 and between 2 and 10, respectively).     

Nonparametric estimation of Shannon’s index of diversity when there are unseen species in sample

A biological community usually has a large number of species with relatively small abundances. When a random sample of individuals is selected and each individual is classified according to species identity, some rare species may not be discovered. This paper is concerned with the estimation of Shannons index of diversity when the number of species and the species abundances are unknown. The traditional estimator that ignores the missing species underestimates when there is a non-negligible number of unseen species. We provide a different approach based on unequal probability sampling theory because species have different probabilities of being discovered in the sample. No parametric forms are assumed for the species abundances. The proposed estimation procedure combines the Horvitz–Thompson (1952) adjustment for missing species and the concept of sample coverage, which is used to properly estimate the relative abundances of species discovered in the sample. Simulation results show that the proposed estimator works well under various abundance models even when a relatively large fraction of the species is missing. Three real data sets, two from biology and the other one from numismatics, are given for illustration.     

Intraguild predatory interactions between the jellyfish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyanea capillata</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aurelia aurita</Emphasis>

While qualitative observations of jellyfish intraguild predation abound in the literature, there are only few rate measurements of these interactions. We quantified predation rates among two common jellyfish in northern boreal waters, Cyanea capillata and its prey Aurelia aurita, both of which also feed on crustacean zooplankton and fish larvae. A series of incubation experiments using a wide range of prey concentrations (0.38–3.8 m⁻³) in large containers (2.6 m³) was carried out. By replenishing the prey continuously as they were captured we maintained a nearly constant prey concentrations. Ingestion rates increased linearly up to prey concentrations of 1.92 m⁻³, yielding maximum clearance rates of ∼2.37 ± 0.39 m³ predator⁻¹ h⁻¹ for C. capillata predators 16 ± 2.3 cm in diameter. Mean ingestion rate at saturated prey concentrations (1.92–3.85 m⁻³) was 4.01 ± 0.78 prey predator⁻¹ h⁻¹. Behavioral observations suggested that predators did not alter their swimming behavior during meals, and thus that feeding rates were generally handling limited rather than encounter limited. Predators captured more prey than needed, and semi-digested prey was often discarded when fresh prey was encountered.