Uncertainty analysis of climate change mitigation options in the forestry sector using a generic carbon budget model

Industrialized countries agreed on a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Many countries elected forest management activities and the resulting net balance of carbon emissions and removals of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases by forest management in their climate change mitigation measures. In this paper a generic dynamic forestry model (FORMICA) is presented. It has an empirical basis. Several modules trace C pools relevant for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond: biomass, litter, deadwood and soil, and harvested wood products. The model also accounts for the substitution of fossil fuels by wood products and bioenergy.     

Quality control and quality assurance for particle size distribution measurements at an urban monitoring station in Augsburg, Germany

Long-term observations of atmospheric constituents such as aerosol particles are increasingly needed to assess their impact on climate and human health. In contrast to particle mass concentration (MC), there are currently no standardized quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) procedures for the measurement of particle size distribution (PSD). This study describes some fundamental QC and QA procedures associated with the collection and evaluation of a 2 year dataset between 2005 and 2006 at an urban background monitoring site in Augsburg, Germany. The considered parametres include ambient PSD between 3 nm and 10 microm (merged from a twin differential mobility and an aerodynamic particle sizer, TDMPS and APS, respectively) as well as total particle number (TNC), length (LC) and MC determined by independent instruments. The hourly 1st and 0th moment of PSD showed good correlations with the independently measured LC (R(2) = 0.86) and TNC (R(2) = 0.79), respectively, the deviation for LC with 4% and for TNC with 22% being rather small. The volume concentration (3rd moment) of hourly measured PSD and the resultant MC (when assuming a realistic apparent density of 1.5 g cm(-3)) correlated well with the independently measured MC of PM(2.5) or PM(10) (R(2) > 0.86) and showed only small deviation from PM(2.5) (1%) or PM(10) (5%), respectively. The study demonstrates that the described QC and QA measures define both a high accuracy of the PSD measurements and their long-term comparability against data obtained in similar measurement programmes.     

Levels and trends of industrial chemicals (PCBs, PFCs, PBDEs) in archived herring gull eggs from German coastal regions

Background

Polychlorinated biphenyls [PCBs], perfluorinated compounds, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers [PBDEs] were retrospectively analyzed in archived herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs from the North and the Baltic Sea over the last 20 years. The aim was to assess temporal trends and effects of regulatory measures.

Results

PCBs (sum of 7 congeners) were highest in eggs from the North Sea island Trischen, i.e., 3,710 to 20,760 ng/g lipid weight [lw] compared to 2,530 to 11,650 ng/g lw on the North Sea island Mellum and 4,840 to 9,190 ng/g lw on the Baltic Sea island Heuwiese. During the study period, PCBs decreased significantly. Concentrations of PFOS ranged between 46 and 170 ng/g wet weight [ww] at Trischen, 39 to 99 ng/g ww at Mellum, and 20 to 159 ng/g ww at Heuwiese. Since 2000 and 2003, concentration levels decreased in eggs from Mellum and Heuwiese, respectively. Perfluorooctanoic acid was the dominant perfluorinated carboxylic acid in the North Sea eggs (Trischen 2.0 to 74 ng/g ww; Mellum 2.6 to 118 ng/g ww), whereas perfluoroundecanoate [PFUnA] and perfluorodecanoate [PFDA] (means 3.9 ± 3.6 ng/g and 2.9 ± 2.3 ng/g ww, respectively) dominated in the Baltic Sea eggs. At all three locations, longer-chained perfluorinated carboxylic acids (perfluorononanoate, PFDA, PFUnA, perfluorododecanoate) increased during the monitoring period. PBDE concentrations (sum of 35 congeners) in eggs were in the ranges of 282 to 2,059 ng/g lw (Mellum), 116 to 1,722 ng/g (Trischen), and 232 to 2,021 ng/g lw (Heuwiese). Congeners associated with commercial Penta- and Octa-BDE formulations decreased during the study period. No decrease was observed for technical Deca-BDE.

Conclusion

Effects of regulatory measures were apparent for PCBs and Penta- and Octa-BDE, while no consistent trend is noticeable for PFOS.     

Flexible foraging strategies in a diving seabird with high flight cost

How central-place foragers change search strategy in response to environmental conditions is poorly known. Foragers may vary the total distance travelled and how far they range from the central place in response to variation in the distribution of their prey. One potential reason as to why they would extend the length of their foraging trip and its distance from the colony would be to increase prey quality or quantity, despite incurring higher transit costs. To test this trade-off hypothesis in a species with high flight costs, we recorded the foraging behaviour of razorbills (Alca torca) using state-of-the-art techniques that log both individual horizontal (flight activity) and vertical (dive activity) movements. We show that the distance that razorbills travelled to foraging locations increased with sea-surface temperature, which may relate to higher prey quality or quantity. This relation is supported by an indirect index of patch quality, based on dive profiles, which also increased with travel distance from the colony. Furthermore, we show that this index was highest during the daily peak in diving activity, around midday. Taken together, these results suggest that razorbills are capable of adjusting their search strategies sensitively in response to proximate environmental cues.     

Does Soil Carbon Loss in Biomass Production Systems Negate the Greenhouse Benefits of Bioenergy?

Interest in bioenergy is growing across the Western world in response to mounting concerns about climate change. There is a risk of depletion of soil carbon stocks in biomass production systems, because a higher proportion of the organic matter and nutrients are removed from the site, compared with conventional agricultural and forestry systems. This paper reviews the factors that influence soil carbon dynamics in bioenergy systems, and utilises the model FullCAM to investigate the likely magnitude of soil carbon change where bioenergy systems replace conventional land uses. Environmental and management factors govern the magnitude and direction of change. Soil C losses are most likely where soil C is initially high, such as where improved pasture is converted to biomass production. Bioenergy systems are likely to enhance soil C where these replace conventional cropping, as intensively cropped soils are generally depleted in soil C. Measures that enhance soil C include maintenance of productivity through application of fertilisers, inclusion of legumes, and retention of nutrient-rich foliage on-site. Modelling results demonstrate that loss of soil carbon in bioenergy systems is associated with declines in the resistant plant matter and humified soil C pools. However, published experimental data and modelling results indicate that total soil C loss in bioenergy systems is generally small. Thus, although there may be some decline in soil carbon associated with biomass production, this is negligible in comparison with the contribution of bioenergy systems towards greenhouse mitigation through avoided fossil fuel emissions.     

Low emission zones reduce PM10 mass concentrations and diesel soot in German cities

In many European cities mass concentrations of PM₁₀ (particles less than 10 μm in size) are still exceeding air quality standards as set by the European Commission in 1999. As a consequence, many cities introduced low emission zones (LEZs) to improve air quality and to meet the limit values. In Germany currently 48 LEZs are in operation. By means of dispersion modeling, PM₁₀ concentrations were estimated to decrease up to 10%. Analysis of PM₁₀ levels conducted for Cologne, Berlin, and Munich some time after the LEZs were introduced showed reduction of PM₁₀ mass concentration in the estimated range. The PM₁₀ particle fraction is, however, composed of particles with varying toxicity, of which diesel soot is highly health relevant. An evaluation of air quality data conducted in Berlin showed that in 2010 traffic-related soot concentrations measured along major roads decreased by 52% compared to 2007. Diesel particle emissions in Berlin were reduced in 2012 by 63% compared to a business-as-usual scenario (reference year 2007). A strong reduction of the traffic-related particle fraction of PM_2.5 was also reported for Munich. Therefore, it is likely that the effects of LEZs are considerably more significant to human health than was anticipated when only considering the reduction of PM₁₀ mass concentrations.

Implications: The implementation of low emission zones in German cities might result in a reduction of PM₁₀ levels concentrations by up to 10%. However, it is difficult to show a reduction of PM₁₀ annual averages in this order of magnitude as meteorology has a large impact on the year-to-year variation of PM mass concentrations. Monitoring of other PM metrics such as black smoke (BS) or elemental carbon (EC) might be a better strategy for evaluating LEZs effects. The benefit of low emission zones on human health is far greater than is presently visible from routine measurements of PM₁₀.     

Accelerated transport of (90)Sr following a release of high ionic strength solution in vadose zone sediments

Numerical simulation of cation exchange and mineral precipitation/dissolution reactions using the multiphase reactive geochemical transport code TOUGHREACT has provided important insight into the distribution of (90)Sr among layers of geologic strata in a complex vadose zone at the U. S. Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory. During a transfer operation in November 1972, 70.4 m(3) of acidic, high ionic strength liquid containing 15,900 Ci of (90)Sr was released over five days into alluvial gravels 137 m above the Snake River Plain Aquifer. Sampling data from perched water zones 33 m below the release contain very high levels of (90)Sr as do soil samples obtained nearer the point of release. Use of traditional simulation approaches using laboratory-measured constant partitioning coefficients (K(d)) cannot simultaneously explain perched water and soil concentrations. To address the discrepancy, a reactive transport approach was adopted to include competitive cation exchange, dissolution/precipitation of calcite, carbon dioxide gas production and transport, and gibbsite precipitation. Simulation results using this model suggest that some of the (90)Sr could have been transported very rapidly immediately after the release with the acceleration facilitated by competition for cation exchange sites with high sodium concentrations in the released liquid and calcium dissolved from calcite, and to a lesser extent by formation of aqueous complexes with nitrate. Once the leading edge of the liquid assemblage was flushed from the alluvium, the mobility of the remaining (90)Sr decreased significantly in the absence of the competing cations. Calculations indicate that there should be a net increase in calcite, suggesting that (90)Sr could be entrained in the mineral lattice, but insufficient field data exist for confirmation. Sensitivity studies show that the cation exchange selectivity coefficients were the most sensitive individual parameters determining the (90)Sr distribution. However, the most sensitive overall quantity was the total ion exchange capacity which is a function of the moles of exchange sites per volume of pore water, the cation exchange capacity, and the total volume wetted by the infiltrating solution. In contrast, the future mobility of (90)Sr was found to be relatively insensitive to the normal range in the composition of influxing precipitation and anthropogenic waters.     

Standardized reporting of the costs of management interventions for biodiversity conservation

Effective conservation management interventions must combat threats and deliver benefits at costs that can be achieved within limited budgets. Considerable effort has focused on measuring the potential benefits of conservation interventions, but explicit quantification of the financial costs of implementation is rare. Even when costs have been quantified, haphazard and inconsistent reporting means published values are difficult to interpret. This reporting deficiency hinders progress toward a collective understanding of the financial costs of management interventions across projects and thus limits the ability to identify efficient solutions to conservation problems or attract adequate funding. We devised a standardized approach to describing financial costs reported for conservation interventions. The standards call for researchers and practitioners to describe the objective and outcome, context and methods, and scale of costed interventions, and to state which categories of costs are included and the currency and date for reported costs. These standards aim to provide enough contextual information that readers and future users can interpret the cost data appropriately. We suggest these standards be adopted by major conservation organizations, conservation science institutions, and journals so that cost reporting is comparable among studies. This would support shared learning and enhance the ability to identify and perform cost‐effective conservation.