Prenatal diagnosis of apparently isolated unilateral multicystic kidney: implications for counselling and management

Cases where initial prenatal diagnosis was made of isolated unilateral multicystic kidney (UMCK) were reviewed to determine appropriate counselling and management strategies. For the 73 cases, chromosome abnormalities, pregnancy complications and family histories were reviewed. In addition, subsequently diagnosed birth defects, and pediatric medical and surgical outcomes were available for 54 cases. Of those with outcome information available renal/genital–urinary tract abnormalities were diagnosed subsequently in 33% and non-renal abnormalities in 16% of cases. Of the non-renal abnormalities, congenital heart defects were most frequent (7%). One chromosome abnormality, a trisomy 21, was present among 32 cases where karyotypes were known (3%). Amniotic fluid volume abnormalities were present in 11 cases but not predictive of associated anomalies, with the exception of one case where polyhydramnios accompanied multiple malformations consistent with VATER association. A family history of structural renal anomalies was reported in 11 cases (20%). There were 14 cases of partial or complete involution (25%), including two cases of complete prenatal involution of the cystic kidneys. No long-term associated morbidity such as hypertension or malignancy was present in our cohort. Based on our study and corroborating literature, amniocentesis should be offered to women when a seemingly isolated UMCK is detected on routine prenatal ultrasound. Furthermore, a detailed ultrasound with careful assessment of the fetal heart and contralateral kidney is indicated at diagnosis and during the third trimester to assess for further evidence of structural abnormalities, as well as amniotic fluid volume abnormalities. Careful assessment of the newborn is indicated with appropriate speciality referral as required. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PREDICTION OF TWO-YEAR PEAK STREAM-DISCHARGES USING NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: The cascade correlation neural network was used to predict the two-year peak discharge (Q₂) for major regional river basins of the continental United States (US). Watersheds ranged in size by four orders of magnitude. Results of the neural network predictions ranged from correlations of 0.73 for 104 test data in the Souris-Red Rainy river basin to 0.95 for 141 test data in California. These results are improvements over previous multilinear regressions involving more variables that showed correlations ranging from 0.26 to 0.94. Results are presented for neural networks trained and tested on drainage area, average annual precipitation, and mean basin elevation. A neural network trained on regional scale data in the Texas Gulf was comparable to previous estimates of Q₂ by regression. Our research shows Q₂ was difficult to predict for the Souris-Red Rainy, Missouri, and Rio Grande river basins compared to the rest of the US, and acceptable predictions could be made using only mean basin elevation and drainage areas of watersheds.     

Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.     

The impact of storm events on a riverbed system and its hydraulic conductivity at a site of induced infiltration

The spatial and temporal variability of riverbed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K(v)) was investigated at a site of induced infiltration, associated with a municipal well field, to assess the impact of high-stage events on scour and subsequently the riverbed K(v). Such impacts are important when considering the potential loss of riverbank filtration capacity due to storm events. The study site, in and along the Great Miami River in southwest Ohio, overlaid a highly productive glacial-outwash aquifer. A three-layer model for this system was conceptualized: a top layer of transient sediment, a second layer comprising large sediment resistant to scour, but clogged with finer sediment (the armor/colmation layer), and a third layer that was transitional to the underlying higher-K(v) aquifer. One location was studied in detail to confirm and quantify the conceptual model. Methods included seepage meters, heat-flow modeling, grain-size analyses, laboratory permeameter tests, slug tests and the use of scour chains and pressure-load cells to directly measure the amount of sediment scour and re-deposition. Seepage meter measured riverbed K(v) ranged from 0.017 to 1.7 m/d with a geometric mean of 0.19 m/d. Heat-transport model-calibrated estimates were even lower, ranging from 0.0061 to 0.046 m/d with a mean of 0.017 m/d. The relatively low K(v) was indicative of the clogged armor layer. In contrast, slug tests in the underlying riverbed sediment yielded K(v) values an order of magnitude greater. There was a linear relationship between scour chain measured scour and event intensity with a maximum scour of only 0.098 m. Load-cell pressure sensor data over a 7-month period indicated a total sediment-height fluctuation of 0.42 m and a maximum storm-event scour of 0.28 m. Scour data indicated that the assumed armor/colmation layer almost always remained intact. Based on measured layer conductivities and thicknesses, the overall K(v) of this conceptualized system was 1.6 m/d. Sensitivity analyses indicated that even complete scour of the armor/colmation layer would likely increase the overall K(v) only by a factor of 1.5. Most scour events observed removed only the transient sediment, having very little effect on the entire system indicating low risk of losing filtration capacity during storms. The research, however, focused on the point bar, depositional side of the river. More research of the entire river profile is necessary.     

Above- and belowground interactions drive habitat segregation between two cryptic species of tropical trees

In the lowlands of central Panama, the Neotropical pioneer tree Trema micrantha (sensu lato) exists as two cryptic species: "landslide" Trema is restricted to landslides and road embankments, while "gap" Trema occurs mostly in treefall gaps. In this study, we explored the relative contributions of biotic interactions and physical factors to habitat segregation in T. micrantha. Field surveys showed that soils from landslides were significantly richer in available phosphorus and harbored distinct arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities compared to gap soils. Greenhouse experiments designed to determine the effect of these abiotic and biotic differences showed that: (1) both landslide and gap species performed better in sterilized soil from their own habitat, (2) the availability of phosphorus and nitrogen was limiting in gap and landslide soils, respectively, (3) a standardized AMF inoculum increased performance of both species, but primarily on gap soils, and (4) landslide and gap species performed better when sterilized soils were inoculated with the microbial inoculum from their own habitat. A field experiment confirmed that survival and growth of each species was highest in its corresponding habitat. This experiment also showed that browsing damage significantly decreased survival of gap Trema on landslides. We conclude that belowground interactions with soil microbes and aboveground interactions with herbivores contribute in fundamental ways to processes that may promote and reinforce adaptive speciation.     

Fine-scale genetic structure in short-beaked common dolphins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Delphinus</Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">delphis</Emphasis>) along the East Australian Current

Oceanographic processes play a significant role in shaping the genetic structure of marine populations, but it is less clear whether they affect genetic differentiation of highly mobile vertebrates. We used microsatellite markers and mtDNA control region sequences to investigate the spatial genetic structure of short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in southeastern Australia, a region characterised by complex oceanographic conditions associated with the East Australian Current (EAC). A total of 115 biopsy samples of dolphins were collected from six localities spanning approximately 1,000 km of the New South Wales (NSW) coastline. We found evidence for contrasting genetic diversity and fine-scale genetic structure, characterised by three genetically differentiated populations with varying levels of admixture. Spatial genetic structure was not explained by a model of isolation by distance, instead it coincides with main patterns of oceanographic variation along the EAC. We propose that common dolphins along the EAC may be adapted to three water masses recently characterised in this region.