Integrating Environmental and Socio-Economic Indicators of a Linked Catchment–Coastal System Using Variable Environmental Intensity

Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application.     

Characteristics of springtime profiles and sources of ozone in the low troposphere over northern Taiwan

To quantify the possible sources of the high ambient ozone concentration in the low troposphere over Taiwan, ozone sounding data from a two-year intensive field measurement program conducted in April and early May of 2004 and 2005 in northern Taiwan has been examined. We found that the vertical ozone distributions and occurrence of enhanced ozone in the lower troposphere (below 6 km) mainly resulted from (1)Type NE: the long-range transport of ozone controlled by the prevailing northeasterly winds below 2 km, (2)Type LO: the local photochemical ozone production process, and (3)Type SW: the strong southwest/westerly winds aloft (2–6 km). In the boundary layer (BL), where Asian continental outflow prevails, the average profile for type NE is characterized by a peak ozone concentration of nearly 65 ppb at about 1500 m altitude. For type LO, high ozone concentration with an average ozone concentration greater than 80 ppb was also found in the BL in the case of stagnant atmospheric and sunny weather conditions dominated. For type SW, significant ozone enhancement with average ozone concentration of 70–85 ppb was found at around 4 km altitude. It is about 10 ppb greater than that of the types NE and LO at the same troposphere layer owing to the contribution of the biomass burning over Indochina. Due to Taiwan's unique geographic location, the complex interaction of these ozone features in the BL and aloft, especially features associated with northeasterly and south/southwesterly winds, have resulted in complex characteristics of ozone distributions in the lower troposphere over northern Taiwan.     

A new condensed toluene mechanism for Carbon Bond: CB05-TU

Toluene is ubiquitous in urban atmospheres and is a precursor to tropospheric ozone and aerosol (smog). An important characteristic of toluene chemistry is the tendency of some degradation products (e.g., cresols and methyl-catechols) to form organic nitro and nitrate compounds that sequester NOx (NO and NO₂) from active participation in smog formation. Explaining the NOx sinks in toluene degradation has made mechanism development more difficult for toluene than for many other organic compounds. Another challenge for toluene is explaining sources of radicals early in the degradation process. This paper describes the development of a new condensed toluene mechanism consisting of 26 reactions, and evaluates the performance of CB05 with this new toluene scheme (Toluene Update, TU) against 38 chamber experiments at 7 different environmental chambers, and provides recommendations for future developments. CB05 with the current toluene mechanism (CB05-Base) under-predicted the maximum O₃ and O₃ production rate for many of these toluene–NOx chamber experiments, especially under low-NOx conditions ([NOx]_t=0 < 100 ppb). CB05 with the new toluene mechanism (CB05-TU) includes changes to the yields and reactions of cresols and ring-opening products, and showed better performance than CB05-Base in predicting the maximum O₃, O₃ formation rate, NOx removal rate and cresol concentration. Additional environmental chamber simulations with xylene–NOx experiments showed that the TU mechanism updates tended to improve mechanism performance for xylene.     

Comparison of summer and winter California central valley aerosol distributions from lidar and MODIS measurements

Aerosol distributions from two aircraft lidar campaigns conducted in the California Central Valley are compared in order to identify seasonal variations. Aircraft lidar flights were conducted in June 2003 and February 2007. While the ground PM_2.5 (particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) concentration was highest in the winter, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured from the MODIS and lidar instruments was highest in the summer. A multiyear seasonal comparison shows that PM_2.5 in the winter can exceed summer PM_2.5 by 68%, while summer AOD from MODIS exceeds winter AOD by 29%. Warmer temperatures and wildfires in the summer produce elevated aerosol layers that are detected by satellite measurements, but not necessarily by surface particulate matter monitors. Temperature inversions, especially during the winter, contribute to higher PM_2.5 measurements at the surface. Measurements of the mixing layer height from lidar instruments provide valuable information needed to understand the correlation between satellite measurements of AOD and in situ measurements of PM_2.5. Lidar measurements also reflect the ammonium nitrate chemistry observed in the San Joaquin Valley, which may explain the discrepancy between the MODIS AOD and PM_2.5 measurements.     

Polychlorinated biphenyl spatial patterns in San Francisco Bay forage fish

Industrialized waterways frequently contain nearshore hotspots of legacy polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination, with uncertain contribution to aquatic food web contamination. We evaluated the utility of estuarine forage fish as biosentinel indicators of local PCB contamination across multiple nearshore sites in San Francisco Bay. Topsmelt (Atherinops affinis) or Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens) contamination was compared between 12 targeted sites near historically polluted locations and 17 probabilistically chosen sites representative of ambient conditions. The average sum of 209 PCB congeners in fish from targeted stations (441 ± 432 ng g^?1 wet weight, mean ± SD) was significantly higher than probabilistic stations (138 ± 94 ng g^?1). Concentrations in both species were comparable to those of high lipid sport fish in the Bay, strongly correlated with spatial patterns in sediment contamination, and above selected literature thresholds for potential hazard to fish and wildlife. The highest concentrations were from targeted Central Bay locations, including Hunter’s Point Naval Shipyard (1347 ng g^?1; topsmelt) and Stege Marsh (1337 ng g^?1; silverside). Targeted sites exhibited increased abundance of lower chlorinated congeners, suggesting local source contributions, including Aroclor 1248. These findings indicate that current spatial patterns in PCB bioaccumulation correlate with historical sediment contamination due to industrial activity. They also demonstrate the utility of naturally occurring forage fish as biosentinels of localized PCB exposure.     

Canada’s Mobile Sources Air Pollution Control Program

The chemical and optical properties of particle emissions from onroad vehicles were investigated at the Allegheny Tunnel on the Pennsylvania Turnpike during July 1981. The optical results are in agreement with earlier data: (1) in terms of light extinction per km driven, diesel particle emissions are at least an order of magnitude more important than particle emissions from spark-ignition vehicles; (2) for diesel particle emissions, light absorption is about twice as efficient as light scattering. Chemical analyses showed that: (1) 24% of the vehicle aerosol was extractable material, (2) 75% of the total mass was carbon, (3) 55% of the total mass was unextractable (elemental) carbon, and (4) the stoichiometry of the extractable fraction of the diesel particle emissions was C_nH_t.7nN_0.05n , i.e., the extractable material was composed predominantly of alkanes. The results of the chemical analyses allow the calculation of the massspecific light absorption coefficient for the elemental carbon component of the diesel particle emissions, i.e., 10.9 ± 1.8 m²/g (500 nm).     

Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Correction methods for organic carbon artifacts when using quartz-fiber filters in large particulate matter monitoring networks: the regression method and other options

Sampling and handling artifacts can bias filter-based measurements of particulate organic carbon (OC). Several measurement-based methods for OC artifact reduction and/or estimation are currently used in research-grade field studies. OC frequently is not artifact-corrected in large routine sampling networks (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s Chemical Speciation Network). In some cases, the OC artifact has been corrected using a regression method (RM) for artifact estimation. In this method, the gamma-intercept of the regression of the OC concentration on the fine particle (PM2.5) mass concentration is taken to be an estimate of the average OC sampling artifact (net of positive and negative artifacts). This paper discusses options for artifact correction in large routine sampling networks. Specifically, the goals are to (1) articulate the assumptions and limitations inherent to the RM, (2) describe other artifact correction approaches, and (3) suggest a cost-effective method for artifact correction in large monitoring networks. The RM assumes a linear relationship between measured OC and PM mass: a constant slope (OC mass fraction) and a constant intercept (RM artifact estimate). These assumptions are not always valid. Additionally, outliers and other individual data points can have a large influence on the RM artifact estimates. The RM yields results within the range of measurement-based methods for some datasets and not for others. Given that the adsorption of organic gases increases with atmospheric concentrations of organics, subtraction of an average artifact from all samples (e.g., across multiple sites) will underestimate OC for lower-concentration samples (e.g., clean sites) and overestimate OC for higher-concentration samples (e.g., polluted sites). For relatively accurate, simple, and cost-effective artifact OC estimation in large networks, the authors suggest backup filter sampling on at least 10% of sampling days at all sites with artifact correction on a sample-by-sample basis as described herein.     

Nitrogen deposition effects on Mediterranean-type ecosystems: an ecological assessment

We review the ecological consequences of N deposition on the five Mediterranean regions of the world. Seasonality of precipitation and fires regulate the N cycle in these water-limited ecosystems, where dry N deposition dominates. Nitrogen accumulation in soils and on plant surfaces results in peaks of availability with the first winter rains. Decoupling between N flushes and plant demand promotes losses via leaching and gas emissions. Differences in P availability may control the response to N inputs and susceptibility to exotic plant invasion. Invasive grasses accumulate as fuel during the dry season, altering fire regimes. California and the Mediterranean Basin are the most threatened by N deposition; however, there is limited evidence for N deposition impacts outside of California. Consequently, more research is needed to determine critical loads for each region and vegetation type based on the most sensitive elements, such as changes in lichen species composition and N cycling.     

Depth-related shift in life history strategies of a brooding and broadcasting deep-sea asteroid

Combining field and laboratory work, this study investigated the reproductive cycle, aggregative behavior, spawning periodicity, development and early growth of the sea star Henricia lisa living at bathyal depths off eastern Canada. Marked differences were found between individuals from ~1,300 and ~600 m deep. The former had a male biased sex ratio and an aperiodic reproductive cycle, whereas the latter displayed an equal sex ratio and a biannual breeding pattern. Furthermore, the maximum size was larger and female fecundity roughly five times higher in shallower compared to deeper populations. In the tanks, aggregative behavior was recorded twice a year during the summer and winter breeding periods. The onset of aggregations and spawning coincided with a temperature of 3–4°C. Males spawned first and females typically responded inside 30–60 min. Between 12 and 20 eggs were retained to be brooded under the arched arms of the female, whereas the remainder were broadcasted and developed without parental care. The fertilized eggs underwent a first cleavage after 12 h, reached the brachiolaria stage in 1 month, became juveniles within 3–4 months and reached ~ 4 mm in diameter after 14–17 months of growth. The embryos and juveniles developed at the same rate whether brooded or not, and development of winter cohorts was typically slower due to lower prevailing temperatures. This study of H. lisa provides the first evidence of lecithotrophy in a seasonally breeding deep-sea echinoderm and of brooding in a deep-sea asteroid.