Model correlation in stochastic forest simulators—A case of multilevel multivariate model for seedling establishment

Forest development can be predicted by the use of forest simulators based on various statistical models describing the forest and its dynamics. One potential approach to study the reliability of the simulators is to utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to generate a predictive distribution of a forest characteristic. One problem in examining the effect of model uncertainty in forestry decision making, however, is correlation between the models. If this is not taken into account, predictions of the model systems may become biased, and the effect of errors on decision making may be underestimated. In reality, the models often are interdependent, but the correlations usually are not known because the models have been estimated in separate studies. The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of between-model dependencies on the predictive distribution of forest characteristics by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We utilise a case of predicting seedling establishment of planted Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands as an example with multivariate multilevel model structures. Regardless of low cross-correlations between the models, ignoring them led to significant underestimation of the amount of competing broadleaves to be removed in pre-commercial thinning. Therefore, we recommend that between-model dependencies are clarified and considered in stochastic simulations. In our case, between-model interdependencies can be reliably estimated with a limited dataset. In addition, estimating the models separately and using the model residuals to estimate interdependencies between models were also sufficient to take the between-model dependencies into account when producing stochastic predictions for silvicultural decision making.     

Facial asymmetry is negatively related to condition in female macaque monkeys

The face is an important visual trait in social communication across many species. In evolutionary terms, there are large and obvious selective advantages in detecting healthy partners, both in terms of avoiding individuals with poor health to minimise contagion and in mating with individuals with high health to help ensure healthy offspring. Many models of sexual selection suggest that an individual's phenotype provides cues to their quality. Fluctuating asymmetry is a trait that is proposed to be an honest indicator of quality, and previous studies have demonstrated that rhesus monkeys gaze longer at symmetric faces, suggesting preferences for such faces. The current study examined the relationship between measured facial symmetry and measures of health in a captive population of female rhesus macaque monkeys. We measured asymmetry from landmarks marked on front-on facial photographs and computed measures of health based on veterinary health and condition ratings, number of minor and major wounds sustained and gain in weight over the first 4?years of life. Analysis revealed that facial asymmetry was negatively related to condition-related health measures, with symmetric individuals being healthier than more asymmetric individuals. Facial asymmetry appears to be an honest indicator of health in rhesus macaques, and asymmetry may then be used by conspecifics in mate-choice situations. More broadly, our data support the notion that faces are valuable sources of information in non-human primates and that sexual selection based on facial information is potentially important across the primate lineage.     

Socio-ecological implications of modifying rotation lengths in forestry

The rotation length is a key component of even-aged forest management systems. Using Fennoscandian forestry as a case, we review the socio-ecological implications of modifying rotation lengths relative to current practice by evaluating effects on a range of ecosystem services and on biodiversity conservation. The effects of shortening rotations on provisioning services are expected to be mostly negative to neutral (e.g. production of wood, bilberries, reindeer forage), while those of extending rotations would be more varied. Shortening rotations may help limit damage by some of today’s major damaging agents (e.g. root rot, cambium-feeding insects), but may also increase other damage types (e.g. regeneration pests) and impede climate mitigation. Supporting (water, soil nutrients) and cultural (aesthetics, cultural heritage) ecosystem services would generally be affected negatively by shortened rotations and positively by extended rotations, as would most biodiversity indicators. Several effect modifiers, such as changes to thinning regimes, could alter these patterns.     

Replacing monocultures with mixed-species stands: Ecosystem service implications of two production forest alternatives in Sweden

Whereas there is evidence that mixed-species approaches to production forestry in general can provide positive outcomes relative to monocultures, it is less clear to what extent multiple benefits can be derived from specific mixed-species alternatives. To provide such insights requires evaluations of an encompassing suite of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and forest management considerations provided by specific mixtures and monocultures within a region. Here, we conduct such an assessment in Sweden by contrasting even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies)-dominated stands, with mixed-species stands of spruce and birch (Betula pendula or B. pubescens), or spruce and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). By synthesizing the available evidence, we identify positive outcomes from mixtures including increased biodiversity, water quality, esthetic and recreational values, as well as reduced stand vulnerability to pest and pathogen damage. However, some uncertainties and risks were projected to increase, highlighting the importance of conducting comprehensive interdisciplinary evaluations when assessing the pros and cons of mixtures.     

Legal prerequisites for ecosystem-based management in the Baltic Sea area: The example of eutrophication

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the role of law in the management of the Baltic Sea, with focus on eutrophication. It aims to identify legal instruments or structures realizing an ecosystem approach. This also includes a discussion of the prerequisites of law as contributor to ecosystem-based management (EBM), as well as evaluation of current legal instruments. While ecosystem approach to environmental management is central to contemporary environmental management policy, it is still unclear what such an approach entails in concrete legal terms. The scope of the analysis stretches from international and EU legal regimes, to implementation and regulation within the national legal systems. A conclusion is that the management structures need further development to properly realize EBM, for example, through concretization of management measures, and clarification of duties and responsibilities for their realization.     

Exposure to insecticides in the use of cold fog generators in greenhouses

The exposure of greenhouse workers to deltamethrin and dichlorvos was studied when low‐volume misters (LVM) were used for the application of these insecticides. Exposure to deltamethrin was mainly by skin contamination and the level of exposure was low. Exposure to dichlorvos was clearly higher than to deltamethrin both through skin and inhalation. These two insecticides are different from chemical structure and character dichlorvos being a highly volatile chemical. The re‐entry period for deltamethrin was calculated to be about ten hours and for dichlorvos two or three days.     

Global change shifts vegetation and plant-parasite interactions in a boreal mire

The aim of this study was to detect vegetation change and to examine trophic interactions in a Sphagnum-dominated mire in response to raised temperature and nitrogen (N) addition. A long-term global-change experiment was established in 1995, with monthly additions of N (30 kg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) and sulfur (20 kg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) during the vegetation period. Mean air temperature was raised by 3.6 degrees C with warming chambers. Vegetation responses were negligible for all treatments for the first four years, and no sulfur effect was seen during the course of the experiment. However, after eight years of continuous treatments, the closed Sphagnum carpet was drastically reduced from 100% in 1995 down to 41%, averaged over all N-treated plots. Over the same period, total vascular plant cover (of the graminoid Eriophorum vaginatum and the two dwarf-shrubs Andromeda polifolia and Vaccinium oxycoccos) increased from 24% to an average of 70% in the N plots. Nitrogen addition caused leaf N concentrations to rise in the two dwarf-shrubs, while for E. vaginatum, leaf N remained unchanged, indicating that the graminoid to a larger extent than the dwarf-shrubs allocated supplemented N to growth. Concurrent with foliar N accumulation of the two dwarf-shrubs, we observed increased disease incidences caused by parasitic fungi, with three species out of 16 showing a significant increase. Warming caused a significant decrease in occurrence of three parasitic fungal species. In general, decreased disease incidences were found in temperature treatments for A. polifolia and in plots without N addition for V. oxycoccos. The study demonstrates that both bryophytes and vascular plants at boreal mires, only receiving background levels of nitrogen of about 2 kg x ha(-1) x yr(-1), exhibit a time lag of more than five years in response to nitrogen and temperature rise, emphasizing the need for long-term experiments. Moreover, it shows that trophic interactions are likely to differ markedly in response to climate change and increased N deposition, and that these interactions might play an important role in controlling the change in mire vegetation composition, with implications for both carbon sequestration and methane emission.     

Evaluating the management strategies of a forestland estate--the S-O-S approach

Connecting Multiple Criteria Decision Support (MCDS) methods with SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis yields analytical priorities for the factors included in SWOT analysis and makes them commensurable. In addition, decision alternatives can be evaluated with respect to each SWOT factor. In this way, SWOT analysis provides the basic frame within which to perform analyses of decision situations. MCDS methods, in turn, assist in carrying out SWOT more analytically and in elaborating the results of the analyses so that alternative strategic decisions can be prioritized also with respect to the entire SWOT. The A'WOT analysis is an example of such hybrid methods. It makes combined use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and SWOT. In this study, a hybrid method of the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal criteria (SMAA-O) and SWOT is developed as an elaboration of the basic ideas of A'WOT. The method is called S-O-S (SMAA-O in SWOT). SMAA-O enables the handling of ordinal preference information as well as mixed data consisting of both ordinal and cardinal information. Using SMAA-O is enough to just rank decision elements instead of giving them cardinal preference or priority ratios as required by the most commonly used MCDS methods. Using SMAA-O, in addition to analyzing what the recommended action is under certain priorities of the criteria, enables one to analyze what kind of preferences would support each action. The S-O-S approach is illustrated by a case study, where the shareholders of a forest holding owned by a private partnership prepared the SWOT analysis. Six alternative strategies for the management of their forest holding and of old cottage located on the holding were formed. After S-O-S analyses were carried out, one alternative was found to be the most recommendable. However, different importance orders of the SWOT groups would lead to different recommendations, since three of the six alternatives were efficient according to S-O-S analyses.     

Influence of diesel concentration on the fate of phenanthrene in soil

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of diesel on the loss and bioavailability of soil-associated [14C]phenanthrene with time. In addition, the temporal development of phenanthrene catabolic activity and the impact of co-contaminant mixtures on the soil microflora were also assessed. With respect to compound fate, the results suggested that competitive effects between dissimilar co-contaminants did influence [14C]phenanthrene loss. Where diesel was present at a concentration of 0, 20, 200 and 2000 mg kg(-1), increased phenanthrene loss was observed with increasing diesel concentrations. In the 20,000 mg kg(-1) diesel treatment, however, a significantly higher amount of the initial [14C]activity remained after 225 days. Furthermore, initial degradation of phenanthrene in this treatment was retarded as a result of repressed phenanthrene catabolic activity. These results were complemented by a 4-fold increase in total culturable bacterial cell numbers in the 20,000 mg kg(-1) treatment when compared with the 2000 mg kg(-1) after 225 days of incubation time.     

Removal by sorption and in situ biodegradation of oil spills limits damage to marine biota: a laboratory simulation

This study examined the efficiency of cotton grass fibers in removing diesel oil from the surface of water in conditions prevailing in the Baltic Sea. The effect of low temperature, salinity, and bacterial amendments were tested in laboratory-scale set-ups, whereas 600-L mesocosms filled with Baltic Sea water were used for testing the effects of diesel oil and rapid removal of the oil on microorganisms, phytoplankton, and mussels. Cotton grass proved to be an excellent sorbent for diesel oil from the water surface at a low temperature. Inoculation with diesel-enriched microorganisms enhanced degradation of oil significantly in laboratory-scale experiments. In mesocosm experiments, the addition of diesel oil (0.66 mg L(-1), 0.533 L m(-2)) to the basins resulted in higher microbial density than in all other basins, including inoculated ones, suggesting that the Baltic Sea contains indigenous hydrocarbon degraders. The removal of oil with cotton grass significantly improved the survival of mussels in the mesocosm tests: 100% mortality in diesel basins versus 0% mortality in basins with cotton grass, respectively. However, the surviving mussels suffered from histopathological changes such as inflammatory responses, degenerations, and cell death. The observed rescuing effect was observable even when the cotton grass-bound oil was left in the water. The results underline the importance of rapid action in limiting damage caused by oil spills.