The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: Development of an Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a “test bed” for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implementation of an evaluation protocol. This Pilot Program enlisted three regional-scale air quality models, serving as prototypes, to forecast ozone (O₃) concentrations across the northeastern United States during the summer of 2002. A suite of statistical metrics was identified as part of the protocol that facilitated evaluation of both discrete forecasts (observed versus modeled concentrations) and categorical forecasts (observed versus modeled exceedances/nonexceedances) for both the maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) forecasts produced by each of the models. Implementation of the evaluation protocol took place during a 25-day period (August 5–29), utilizing hourly O₃ concentration data obtained from over 450 monitors from the U.S. Environment Protection Agency’s Air Quality System network.     

The influence of grassland management on ground beetles (Carabidae, Coleoptera) in Swiss montane meadows

Effects of grassland management type and intensity on carabid species richness, number of individuals and species composition were studied in the Swiss Prealps. Carabids were censused in 2001 and 2002 in 21 mown and 20 grazed meadows by means of pitfall traps.Mean species richness was significantly higher in mown plots than in grazed plots and species composition was significantly different between these two management types. Additionally, different species characteristic for mown and grazed plots were found. These results suggest that mown meadows and grazed meadows represent two habitat types for carabid beetles.Within both habitats, management intensity was quantified by fertilizing intensity, the number of cuts, cattle density and/or grazing intensity. The relationship between management intensity and the number of individuals and species was positive. Higher fertilizing intensity was the most important factor for higher species richness and had a significant influence on species composition in both habitats. Other variables positively related to the number of individuals, were the number of cuts in mown meadows and grazing intensity and altitude in grazed meadows. Additionally to fertilizing intensity, cattle density was positively related to the number of species in grazed meadows. These results illustrate that in the extensive management systems found in the Swiss Alps and Prealps, even intensively managed meadows can sustain high carabid diversity and abundance.     

A hybrid modeling approach to resolve pollutant concentrations in an urban area

A modeling tool that can resolve contributions from individual sources to the urban environment is critical for air-toxics exposure assessments. Air toxics are often chemically reactive and may have background concentrations originated from distant sources. Grid models are the best-suited tools to handle the regional features of these chemicals. However, these models are not designed to resolve pollutant concentrations on local scales. Moreover, for many species of interest, having reaction time scales that are longer than the travel time across an urban area, chemical reactions can be ignored in describing local dispersion from strong individual sources making Lagrangian and plume-dispersion models practical. In this study, we test the feasibility of developing an urban hybrid simulation system. In this combination, the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) provides the regional background concentrations and urban-scale photochemistry, and local models such as Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) and AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) provide the more spatially resolved concentrations due to local emission sources. In the initial application, the HYSPLIT, AERMOD, and CMAQ models are used in combination to calculate high-resolution benzene concentrations in the Houston area. The study period is from 18 August to 4 September of 2000. The Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) is used to create meteorological fields with a horizontal resolution of 1×1 km². In another variation to this approach, multiple HYSPLIT simulations are used to create a concentration ensemble to estimate the contribution to the concentration variability from point sources. HYSPLIT simulations are used to model two sources of concentration variability; one due to variability created by different particle trajectory pathways in the turbulent atmosphere and the other due to different flow regimes that might be introduced when using gridded data to represent meteorological data fields. The ensemble mean concentrations determined by HYSPLIT plus the concentrations estimated by AERMOD are added to the CMAQ calculated background to estimate the total mean benzene concentration. These estimated hourly mean concentrations are also compared with available field measurements.     

Exploring the Relationship Between Hydrologic Parameters and Nutrient Loads Using Digital Elevation Model and GIS – A Case Study from Sugarcreek Headwaters, Ohio, U.S.A.

Ohio is typical among the Midwestern and Eastern United States with high levels of water pollutants, the main sources being from agriculture. In this study, we used a digital elevation model in conjunction with hydrological indices to determine the role of landscape complexity affecting the spatial and temporal variation in pollutant levels, in one of the most impaired headwater streams in Ohio. More than eighty five percent of the study area is dominated by agriculture. Spatial distribution of slope (S), altitude and wetness index along with other watershed parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, stream networks, flow stream orders and erosion index were used within a Geographic Information Systems framework to quantify variation in nitrate and phosphate loads to headwater streams. Stream monitoring data for nutrient loads were used to correlate the observed spatial and temporal patterns with hydrological parameters using multiple linear regressions. Results from the wetness index calculated from a digital elevation model suggested a range of 0.10–16.39, with more than 35% having values less than 4.0. A Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) predicted soil loss in the range of 0.01–4.0 t/ha/yr. Nitrate nitrogen levels in the study area paralleled precipitation patterns over time, with higher nitrate levels corresponding to high precipitation. Atmospheric deposition through precipitation could explain approximately 35% of total nitrate levels observed in streams. Among the different topographic variables and hydrological indices, results from the step-wise multiple regression suggested the following best predictors, (1) elevation range and upstream flow length for nitrate, (2) flow direction and upstream flow length for ammonia-nitrogen and slope, and (3) elevation range for phosphate levels. Differences in the landscape models observed for nitrate, phosphate and ammonia-nitrogen in the surface waters were attributed partly to differences in the chemical activity and source strengths of the different forms of these nutrients through agricultural management practices. The results identify geomorphologic and landscape characteristics that influence pollutant levels in the study area.     

Toxicity persistence in runoff and soil from experimental soybean plots following insecticide applications

Persistence of toxicity in runoff water and soil was investigated in experimental soybean plots subjected to successive runoff events following pesticide application. Runoff events were produced by irrigation using a sprinkler system. The pesticides applied were cypermethrin and endosulfan, which are widely used in soy production in Argentina. Toxicity tests were performed on two abundant components of the regional fauna, the amphipod Hyalella curvispina and the fish Cnesterodon decemmaculatus. Runoffs from two pesticide applications were assayed at different stages of the growing season: an early application when the soil was almost bare and a late one close to harvest, when the ground was covered by vegetation and just before soy leaves fell. Toxicity to H. curvispina in runoff ceased almost one month after the early application of the two pesticides, while it persisted for over three months after the late application. Soil toxicity to H. curvispina and runoff toxicity to C. decemmaculatus followed the same pattern. Higher temperatures and solar radiation are likely to have enhanced insecticide degradation after the early application. Lower temperatures and solar radiation in combination with increased organic matter from litter probably contributed to the longer persistence of toxicity recorded after the late application, as compared with the early application. Cypermethrin caused no mortality to C. decemmaculatus after the early application, while endosulfan toxicity persisted for almost four months after the late one.     

Quantification of biotransformation of chlorinated hydrocarbons in a biostimulation study: added value via stable carbon isotope analysis

Stable carbon isotope analysis of chlorinated aliphatic compounds was performed at an in situ biostimulation pilot test area (PTA) at a site where 1,2-dichloroethane (1,2-DCA) and trichloroethene (TCE) were present in groundwater. Chlorinated products of TCE reductive dechlorination (cis-dichloroethene (cDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC)) were present at concentrations of 17.5 to 126.4 micromol/L. Ethene, a potential degradation product of both 1,2-DCA dihaloelimination and TCE reductive dechlorination was also present in the PTA. Emulsified soybean oil and lactate were added as electron donors to stimulate anaerobic dechlorination in the PTA. Stable carbon isotope analysis provided evidence that dechlorination was occurring in the PTA during biostimulation, and a means of monitoring changes in dechlorination efficiency over the 183 day monitoring period. Stable carbon isotope analysis was also used to determine if ethene production in the PTA was due to dechlorination of TCE, 1,2-DCA, or both. Fractionation factors (alpha) were determined in the laboratory during anaerobic biotransformation of 1,2-DCA via a dihaloelimination reaction in four separate enrichment cultures. These alpha values (as well as the previously published ranges of alpha for the dechlorination of TCE, cDCE and 1,2-DCA) were used, along with isotopic values measured during the pilot test, to derive quantitative estimates of biotransformation during the pilot test. Dechlorination was found to account for 10.7 to 35.9%, 21.9 to 74.9%, and 54.4 to 67.8% of 1,2-DCA, TCE and cDCE concentration loss respectively in the PTA. Stable carbon isotope analysis indicates that dechlorination of 1,2-DCA, TCE and cDCE were all significant processes during the pilot test, while ethene production during the pilot test was dominated by 1,2-DCA dihaloelimination. This study demonstrates how stable carbon isotope analysis can provide more conservative estimates of the extent of biotransformation than do conventional protocols. In addition, in a complex mixed plume such as this, compound specific isotope analysis is shown to be one of the few methods available for clarifying dominant biotransformation pathways where breakdown products are non-exclusive (i.e. ethene).     

Environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and social impact assessment (SIA) of small-scale biorefineries implemented in rural zones: the avocado (Persea Americana var. Americana) case in Colombia

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The objective of this study is to compare the environmental and social performance of two small-scale avocado biorefineries implanted in a rural zone...