Modelling gas release event behaviour in hazardous waste tanks

Certain radioactive waste storage tanks at the United States Department of Energy Hanford facilities continuously generate gases as a result of radiolysis and chemical reactions. The congealed sludge in these tanks traps the gases beneath it and causes the level of the waste within the tanks to rise. The waste level continues to rise until the sludge loses its buoyancy and rolls over, changing places with fluid on top. During a rollover, the trapped gases are released, resulting in a sudden drop in the waste level. This is known as a gas release event (GRE). After a GRE, the waste re-congeals and gas again accumulates, leading to another GRE. We are interested in the time between consecutive GREs. Understanding the probabilistic behaviour of the time between consecutive GREs is important because the hydrogen and nitrous oxide gases released during a GRE are flammable and the ammonia that is released is a health risk. From a safety perspective, activity around such waste tanks should be halted when a GRE is imminent. With a credible probability model for the time between consecutive GREs, we can establish time windows in which waste tank research and maintenance activities can be safely performed. We discuss the application of non-linear time series models to this problem.     

Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

Aspects of a zooplankton,phytoplankton, phosphorus system

In this paper a three-dimensional dynamical system which models the three-species system made up of phytoplankton, zooplankton and organic phosphorus nutrient in a lake environment is studied. The system is part of a more general limnological model for eutrophic lakes and impoundments which has been developed by Battelle Northwest Laboratories. It is shown that this system, henceforth referred to as Z-P-P, has a phase portrait comprised of a plane portrait embedded in the three-dimensional space R³ as an “attractor”.¹ Under a small perturbation of the nutrient equation it is shown that the system is essentially a classical Volterra-Lotka system embedded in a three-dimensional phase space R³.The system derived from Z-P-P by the addition of a term to the nutrient equation which represents the organic phosphorus contribution of dying phytoplankton is also considered. The equilibria of this system are studied and what can be deduced of the phase portrait is compared with that of the above systems. It is found that these phase portraits are qualitatively indifferent to the form of the growth rate functions for zooplankton and phytoplankton provided they are monotone increasing. Some discussion about the stability of these systems is included. Throughout this paper results are interpreted in limnological terms.     

Geolocation of free-ranging fish on the European continental shelf as determined from environmental variables II. Reconstruction of plaice ground tracks

Between December 1993 and February 1997, 302 electronic data storage tags (DSTs), programmed to record depth at 10-min intervals and temperature daily, were attached to mature female plaice, Pleuronectes platessa, and released in the southern North Sea. Fifty tags were returned, 38 of which functioned fully and recorded 2,955 days of data. Twenty-seven tags recorded data over the full period at liberty, and 34 geographical ground tracks were reconstructed. Reconstruction was performed using a two-dimensional tidal stream simulation model that translated vertical movement of fish, recorded by DSTs, into horizontal movement assuming an initial down-tide swimming speed of 0.6 body lengths s^–1. Geographical accuracy of reconstructed tracks was assessed based on closeness of fit between (1) reconstruction endpoint and reported recapture position; (2) reconstructed locations and corresponding locations based on tidal data recorded by DSTs using the tidal location method (TLM; location of areas with similar tidal range and time of high water); and (3) DST temperature records and corresponding averaged sea surface temperature data records for corresponding locations. The results demonstrate that the assumptions of the tidal stream simulation model were sufficient to reconstruct geographically accurate representations of the migrations of individual plaice, which have in turn provided new information on the extent, duration, and directionality of movement. Our study demonstrates how DSTs can provide fishery-independent data with direct management applications in behaviourally driven, individual-based predictive models of fish migration.Communicated by J.P. Thorpe, Port Erin     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital cystic adenomatoid lung malformation: A report of seven cases

Six cases of macrocystic and one case of microcystic congenital adenomatoid lung malformation were diagnosed by ultrasound between 20 and 31 weeks of gestation. Combined polyhydramnios and fetal hydrops was present in three cases, polyhydramnios alone in one case, and isolated fetal hydrops also in one case. In the remaining two cases, both polyhydramnios and fetal hydrops were absent. Fetal outcome was poor, i.e., two terminations of pregnancy, three early neonatal deaths, and two survivors.     

Congenital myotonic dystrophy: An often unsuspected cause of severe polyhydramnios

Two cases of severe polyhydramnios are presented in which the unsuspected diagnosis of myotonic dystrophy was made in the patient and the fetus.     

Mosaicism and accuracy of prenatal cytogenetic diagnoses after chorionic villus sampling and placental biopsies

Discrepant chromosome findings in placenta and fetus (false negative and false positive) after chorionic villus sampling (CVS) are mainly due to confined mosaicism. Non-mosaic normal or abnormal chromosome counts after direct preparation and culture nearly always correctly reflect the fetal chromosome constitution. False-negative results have almost exclusively been restricted to cytotrophoblast cells not representing a fetal chromosome abnormality. Diagnosis of placental mosaicism definitely requires an adequate follow-up by amniocentesis, fetal blood sampling, or sonography before a pregnancy is terminated. When direct preparations and cultured cells are used for cytogenetic diagnoses and placental mosaicism is not taken as proof for a chromosomal abnormality in the fetus, CVS is an accurate diagnostic tool.     

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and fetal triploidy

Fetal triploidy is commonly found in early pregnancy. The majority of these pregnancies spontaneously abort in the first trimester. Occasionally, the pregnancy progresses to the second and third trimesters. We reviewed the maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP), amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), amniotic fluid acetylcholinesterase (ACHE), fetal pathology, and placental pathology in sex second-trimester pregnancies complicated by fetal triploidy. Four of these patients had MSAFP values greater than 7.5 multiples of the median (MoM). Five of six pregnancies had MSAFP values greater than 2.25 MoM. All five of these patients had a partial mole. Four patients had amniotic fluid AFP values greater than 2.0 MoM. Two fetuses had associated neural tube defects. These were the only patients with positive amniotic fluid ACHE. None of the other patients had fetuses with anomalies that are known to be associated with an elevated MSAFP. The elevated MSAFP appeared to be related to the presence of a partial mole. Two of the five cases with an MSAFP greater than 2.25 MoM did not have sonographic evidence of a significant anomaly. Therefore, karyotyping can be of benefit in evaluating patients with elevated MSAFP.