A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Modelling Water Blending—Sensitivity of Optimal Policies

Water blending is modelled as a combination of a linear program and a stochastic dynamic program. Optimal policies are found for linear and integer-linear formulations using both an expected monetary value and conditional value-at-risk criterion. The sensitivity of these solutions to the discretisation over volume and over time is investigated.     

Biochemical responses in tree foliage exposed to coal-fired power plant emission in seasonally dry tropical environment

A biomonitoring study was conducted to investigate the responses of plants exposed to power plant emission in a dry tropical environment. For this purpose, five sampling sites were selected in the prevailing wind direction (NE) at different distance to thermal power plant (TPP) within 8.0 km range and a reference site was selected in eastern direction at a distance of 22.0 km. The two most common tree species, Ficus benghalensis L. (Evergreen tree) and Dalbergia sisso Roxb. (deciduous tree) were selected as test plants. Ambient sulphur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), suspended particulate matter (SPM), respirable suspended particulate matter (RSPM), dust-fall rate (DFR) and plant responses such as leaf pigments (chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b and carotenoids), ascorbic acid, sugar and sulphate-sulphur (SO4(2-)-S) contents were measured. Ambient SO(2), NO(2), SPM, RSPM and DFR showed significant spatial and temporal variation at different sites. Considerable reduction in pigment (chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b and carotenoids) and sugar contents were observed at sites receiving higher pollution load. Ascorbic acid exhibited significant positive correlation with pollution load. Accumulation of SO4(2-)-S in leaf tissue showed significant positive correlation with ambient SO(2) concentration at all the sites. At the same time, SO4(2-)-S showed significant negative correlation with pigment and sugar content. D. sisso Roxb. tree was found to be more sensitive as compared to F. benghalensis L. tree.     

The comparison of heavy metal accumulation ratios of some fish species in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey)

The metal accumulation levels for muscle, skin, gill, liver and intestine tissues of some Cyprinidae species (Carassius carassius, Condrostoma nasus, Leuciscus cephalus and Alburnus alburnus) in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey), which is mostly fed by hot spring waters, were investigated. Analyses were performed for copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), magnesium (Mg), nickel (Ni), chrome (Cr) and boron (B) using inductively coupled plasma-optic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), and cadmium (Cd) using atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS) utilizing microwave digestion techniques. The concentrations of the heavy metals found in the fish varied in the follow ing ranges: Cu: < DL-7.04, Zn: 6.96-357.25, Mn: < DL-20.70, Ni: < DL-6.21, Fe: 9.62-2500.33, Cr: < DL-1.74, Co: < DL-0.54, Cd: 0.01-0.27 and Mg: 197.44-904.90 mg/kg wet weight. While B had the second highest concentration in the water of the lake, it was not encountered in any tissue of the investigated species. In all tissues and the species, While the bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of Mn, Zn, Fe and Cu were remarkably high, the BAFs of Mg, Cr, Co, and B were also fairly low or none. Although the heavy metal accumulation levels for the muscle were generally lower than other tissues, there were some exceptions. Cd level in the muscle of C. carassius was higher than the permissible limit stated by Turkish legislation, FAO and WHO. The mean metal amounts for all the investigated tissues and species are statistically compared and discussed in this study.     

Multivariate statistical study of seasonal variation of BTEX in the surface water of Savitri River

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) analysis was carried out for the surface water of the Savitri river during the period of June 2005 to June 2007. BTEX compounds (Benzene, Toluene, Xylene & Ethyl benzene) were analyzed by using micro extraction technique (Purge & Trap). Concentrations of these BTEX compounds were ranging from 0.1 to 1.5 ppm during sampling period. Higher concentrations of BTEX were found at sampling location VI. Concentration of ethyl benzene was very low as compare to other compounds. However, the concentration of benzene was very high. Seasonal variations in conc. of BTEX compounds were observed and higher concentration was detected during the summer season. Salting-out effect had given higher quantification values. In PCA and PFA, the component loading for all the variables are positively correlated. Death of fishes was observed in the river that is indication of severe pollution problem.     

Risk assessment of trihalomethanes from tap water in Fortaleza, Brazil

The cancer risks (CR) by oral ingestion, dermal absorption, and inhalation exposure of trihalomethanes (THM) from tap water of ten districts in Fortaleza, Brazil were estimated. The mean levels of THM compounds were obtained in Fortaleza tap water as follow: 63.9 microg L(-1) for chloroform (CHCl(3)), 40.0 microg L(-1) for bromodichloromethane (CHBrCl(2)), and 15.6 microg L(-1) for dibromochloromethane (CHBr(2)Cl). Bromoform (CHBr(3)) was not detected. The mean CR for THMs in tap water is 3.96 x 10(-4). The results indicate that Fortaleza residents have a higher CR by inhalation than dermal absorption and oral ingestion. The CR for CHCl(3) contributes with 68% as compared with the total CR, followed by CHBrCl(2) (21%), and CHBr(2)Cl (11%). The hazard index (HI) is about ten times lower than unity, not indicating non-cancer effects.     

Non-intrusive characterization methods for wastewater-affected groundwater plumes discharging to an alpine lake

Streams and lakes in rocky environments are especially susceptible to nutrient loading from wastewater-affected groundwater plumes. However, the use of invasive techniques such as drilling wells, installing piezometers or seepage meters, to detect and characterize these plumes can be prohibitive. In this work, we report on the use of four non-intrusive methods for this purpose at a site in the Rocky Mountains. The methods included non-invasive geophysical surveys of subsurface electrical conductivity (EC), in-situ EC measurement of discharging groundwater at the lake-sediment interface, shoreline water sampling and nutrient analysis, and shoreline periphyton sampling and analysis of biomass and taxa relative abundance. The geophysical surveys were able to detect and delineate two high-EC plumes, with capacitively coupled ERI (OhmMapper) providing detailed two-dimensional images. In situ measurements at the suspected discharge locations confirmed the presence of high-EC water in the two plumes and corroborated their spatial extent. The nutrient and periphyton results showed that only one of the two high-EC plumes posed a current eutrophication threat, with elevated nitrogen and phosphorus levels, high localized periphyton biomass and major shifts in taxonomic composition to taxa that are commonly associated with anthropogenic nutrient loading. This study highlights the need to use non-intrusive methods in combination, with geophysical and water EC-based methods used for initial detection of wastewater-affected groundwater plumes, and nutrient or periphyton sampling used to characterize their ecological effects.     

Application of intrawell testing of RCRA groundwater monitoring data when no upgradient well exists

A statistical quality control approachto detect changes in groundwater quality from aregulated waste unit is described. The approachapplies the combined Shewhart-CUSUM control chartmethodology for intrawell comparison of analyteconcentrations over time and does not require anupgradient well. A case study from the U.S.Department of Energy's Hanford Site is used forillustration purposes. This method is broadlyapplicable in groundwater monitoring programs wherethere is no clearly defined upgradient location, thegroundwater flow rate is exceptionally slow, or wherea high degree of spatial variability exists inparameter concentrations. This study also indicatesthat the use of the Data Quality Objectives (DQO)process can assist in designing an efficient andcost-effective groundwater monitoring plan to achievethe optimum goal of both low false positive and lowfalse negative rates (high power).     

Cultured human-cell-based bioassay for environmental risk management

Among bioassays for evaluating various impacts of chemicalson humans and ecosystems, those based on culturedmammalian-cells can best predict acute lethal toxicity to humans. Weexpect them to be employed in the future in environmentalrisk management alongside mutagenicity tests and endocrine-disrupting activity tests. We recently developed adisposable bioassay device that immobilizes humanhepatocarcinoma cells in a small micropipette tip. Thisenables very quick (within 2 h) evaluation of acute lethaltoxicity to humans. For bioassay-based environmentalmanagement, 2 promising approaches have been demonstrated bythe US-EPA: toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) andtoxicity reduction evaluation (TRE). The Japanese Ministryof Environment has been supporting a multi-center validationproject, aimed at assembling a bioassay database. To makefull use of these resources, we present a numerical modelthat describes contribution of individual chemical toobserved toxicity. This will allow the selection of the mosteffective countermeasure to reduce the toxicity. Bioassay-based environmental risk management works retrospectively,whereas impact assessment using substance flow models andtoxicity databases works prospective. We expect that these 2approaches will exchange information, act complementarily,and work effectively in keeping our environment healthy inthe 21st century.