Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Impact of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation on river sediment metal contamination

This study aimed at evidencing contaminant inputs from a rapidly growing population and the accompanying anthropogenic activities to river sediments. The Fez metropolitan area and its impacts on the Sebou's sediments (the main Moroccan river) were chosen as a case study. The Fez agglomeration is surrounded by the river Fez, receiving the wastewaters of this developing city and then flowing into the Sebou. The sediment cores from the Fez and Sebou Rivers were extracted and analysed for major elements, butyltins and toxic metals. Normalised enrichment factors and geoaccumulation index were calculated. Toxicity risk was assessed by two sets of sediment quality guideline (SQG) indices. A moderate level of contamination by butyltins was observed, with monobutyltin being the dominant species across all sites and depths. The lowest level of metal pollution was identified in the Sebou's sediments in upstream of Fez city, whilst the Fez' sediments were heavily polluted and exhibited bottom-up accumulation trends, which is a clear signature of recent inputs from the untreated wastewaters of Fez city. Consequently, the sediments of Fez and Sebou at the downstream of the confluence were found to be potentially toxic, according to the SQG levels. This finding is concerned with aquatic organisms, as well as to the riverside population, which is certainly exposed to these pollutants through the daily use of water. This study suggests that although Morocco has adopted environmental regulations aiming at restricting pollutant discharges into the natural ecosystems, such regulations are neither well respected by the main polluters nor efficiently enforced by the authorities.     

The distribution and extent of heavy metal accumulation in song sparrows along Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River

Heavy metals are persistent environmental contaminants, and transport of metals into the environment poses a threat to ecosystems, as plants and wildlife are susceptible to long-term exposure, bioaccumulation, and potential toxicity. We investigated the distribution and cascading extent of heavy metal accumulation in southwestern song sparrows (Melospiza melodia fallax), a resident riparian bird species that occurs along the US/Mexico border in Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River watershed. This study had three goals: (1) quantify the degree of heavy metal accumulation in sparrows and determine the distributional patterns among study sites, (2) compare concentrations of metals found in this study to those found in studies performed prior to a 2009 international wastewater facility upgrade, and (3) assess the condition of song sparrows among sites with differing potential levels of exposure. We examined five study sites along with a reference site that reflect different potential sources of contamination. Body mass residuals and leukocyte counts were used to assess sparrow condition. Birds at our study sites typically had higher metal concentrations than birds at the reference site. Copper, mercury, nickel, and selenium in song sparrows did exceed background levels, although most metals were below background concentrations determined from previous studies. Song sparrows generally showed lower heavy metal concentrations compared to studies conducted prior to the 2009 wastewater facility upgrade. We found no cascading effects as a result of metal exposure.     

A comparative study on mesozooplankton abundance and diversity between a protected and an unprotected coastal area of Andaman Islands

The study was carried out to understand the variability in phytoplankton production (Chlorophyll a) and mesozooplankton diversity from two different shallow coastal regions of south Andaman viz. Port Blair Bay (PBB), the only real urban area among the islands and Mahatma Gandhi Marine National Park, a Marine Protected Area (MPA) at Wandoor. Seasonal sampling was carried out during the Northeast monsoon (NEM—November 2005), Intermonsoon (IM—April 2006), and Southwest monsoon (SWM—August 2006). Significant (P?<?0.05) seasonal variation was observed in the environmental variables at both the regions. Higher average chlorophyll a (Chl. a) and mesozooplankton standing stock were observed at PBB compared to MPA, but the seasonal variation observed was marginal at both the study areas. Chl. a showed a steep increasing gradient from outer to the inner regions of the PBB. The number of zooplankton taxa recorded at both areas was quite similar, but marked differences were noticed in their relative contribution to the total abundance. Eventhough the Copepoda dominated at both the areas, the non-copepod taxa differed significantly between the regions. Dominance of carnivores such as siphonophores and chaetognaths were noticed at PBB, while filter feeders such as appendicularians and decapod larvae were more abundant at MPA. A total of 20 and 21 copepod families was recorded from PBB and MPA, respectively. Eleven species of chaetognaths were observed as common at both areas. Larval decapods were found to be predominant at MPA with 20 families; whereas, at PBB, only 12 families were recorded. In the light of the recent reports on various changes occurring in the coastal waters of the Andaman Islands, it is suspected that the difference in Chl. a as well as the mesozooplankton standing stock and community structure observed between the two study areas may be related to the various anthropogenic events influencing the coastal waters.     

Consumption of unsafe food in the adjacent area of Hazaribag tannery campus and Buriganga River embankments of Bangladesh: heavy metal contamination

The concentrations of Cr, Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in water, poultry meat, fish, vegetables, and rice plants obtained from the area adjacent to the Hazaribag tannery campus, Dhaka, Bangladesh, were estimated and compared with permissible levels established by the WHO and FAO and levels reported previously by other authors. The metal contents were in the following order according to the concentration in contaminated irrigation water: Cr?>?Pb?>?As?>?Hg?>?Cd. Mean concentrations of Cr, Pb, Hg, and As in irrigated water were above the permissible levels, whereas the results were below the permissible levels for Cd. The metal concentrations in poultry meat, fish, rice, and vegetables were in the following orders: Pb?>?Cr?>?Cd?>?Hg?>?As, Pb?>?Cr?>?Cd?>?As?>?Hg, Pb?>?As, and Cr?>?Pb?>?Cd?>?As?>?Hg, respectively. The mean concentrations of metals in poultry meat, fish, rice, and vegetables were much higher than the permissible levels. The trends of weekly intake of heavy metals (WIMs) from poultry meat, fish, rice, and vegetables were as follows: Pb?>?Cr?>?Cd?>?Hg?>?As, Pb?>?Cr?>?Cd?>?As?>?Hg, Pb?>?As, and Cr?>?Pb?>?Cd?>?As?>?Hg, respectively. WIMs for all the metals were lower than the provisional maximum weekly intake recommended by WHO/FAO and USNAS.     

Organochlorine pesticide residue levels in blood serum of inhabitants from Veracruz, Mexico

The objective of the present study was to monitor the levels of organochlorine pesticides HCB; α-, β-, γ-HCH; pp'DDE; op'DDT; and pp'DDT in blood serum of Veracruz, Mexico inhabitants. Organochlorine pesticides were analyzed in 150 blood serum samples that constituted that which remained after clinical analyses, using gas chromatography-electron-capture detection (GC-ECD). The results were expressed as milligrams per kilogram on fat basis and micrograms per liter on wet weight. Only the following pesticides were detected: p,p'-DDE was the major organochlorine component, detected in 100% of samples at mean 15.8 mg/kg and 8.4 μg/L; p,p'-DDT was presented in 41.3.% of monitored samples at mean 3.1 mg/kg and 1.4 μg/L; β-HCH was found in 48.6% of the samples at mean 4.9 mg/kg and 2.7 μg/L; op'DDT was determined to be in only 3.3% of monitored samples at mean 2.7 mg/kg and 1.4 μg/L. The pooled samples divided according to sex showed significant differences of β-HCH and pp'DDE concentrations in females. The samples grouped according to age presented the third tertile as more contaminated in both sexes, indicating age as a positively associated factor with serum organochlorine pesticide levels in Veracruz inhabitants.     

Determination of radioactive elements and heavy metals in sediments and soil from domestic water sources in northern peninsular Malaysia

Soil serves as a major reservoir for contaminants as it posseses an ability to bind various chemicals together. To safeguard the members of the public from an unwanted exposure, studies were conducted on the sediments and soil from water bodies that form the major sources of domestic water supply in northern peninsular Malaysia for their trace element concentration levels. Neutron Activation Analysis, using Nigeria Research Reactor-1 (NIRR-1) located at the Centre for Energy Research and Training, Zaria, Nigeria was employed as the analytical tool. The elements identified in major quantities include Na, K, and Fe while As, Br, Cr, U, Th, Eu, Cs, Co, La, Sm, Yb, Sc, Zn, Rb, Ba, Lu, Hf, Ta, and Sb were also identified in trace quantities. Gamma spectroscopy was also employed to analyze some soil samples from the same area. The results indicated safe levels in terms of the radium equivalent activity, external hazard index as well as the mean external exposure dose rates from the soil. The overall screening of the domestic water sources with relatively high heavy metals concentration values in sediments and high activity concentration values in soil is strongly recommended as their accumulation overtime as a consequence of leaching into the water may be of health concern to the members of the public.     

A Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Model Based on ELECTRE TRI-C for Erosion Risk Assessment in Agricultural Areas

This paper deals with a real-world decision-aiding problem for zoning the risk of erosion, total suspended solids emissions, and ecological consequences of their transfers towards the streams. One of these consequences is the decrease of fishes into the streams in agricultural watersheds, because of the clogging of spawning areas. Given the multiple criteria nature of the problem, the originality of our research is to adapt a new decision-aiding sorting method, ELECTRE TRI-C, for identifying risk zones in rural areas, where measures must be taken. The developed model was applied in a small watershed (Low Normandy, France) where the objective was to assess the most appropriate intervention for protecting the reproduction habitat of the salmonid fishes. Agricultural parcels were evaluated on multiple criteria for grouping them into four risk categories, which are related to risk levels as well as priorities on the improvement works. The decision-aiding sorting model is co-constructed, within a constructive approach, through an interaction process between decision-aiding analysts, environmental experts, and local actors for improving transparency and communication on the results. This model is linked with a geographical information system (GIS) for assessing a set of criteria and the visualization of the farming parcels along with their type of intervention they should be submitted to best practices. The assignment results were validated by the environmental experts. These results have a strong impact on the agricultural practices of the farmers into the watersheds. The model proposed in this paper can be considered as a useful decision aid tool in any regions for implementing public agricultural and environmental policies for protecting the ecological areas.     

Accuracy and uncertainty assessment on geostatistical simulation of soil salinity in a coastal farmland using auxiliary variable

Understanding the spatial soil salinity aids farmers and researchers in identifying areas in the field where special management practices are required. Apparent electrical conductivity measured by electromagnetic induction instrument in a fairly quick manner has been widely used to estimate spatial soil salinity. However, methods used for this purpose are mostly a series of interpolation algorithms. In this study, sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) and sequential Gaussian co-simulation (SGCS) algorithms were applied for assessing the prediction accuracy and uncertainty of soil salinity with apparent electrical conductivity as auxiliary variable. Results showed that the spatial patterns of soil salinity generated by SGS and SGCS algorithms showed consistency with the measured values. The profile distribution of soil salinity was characterized by increasing with depth with medium salinization (EC_e 4–8 dS/m) as the predominant salinization class. SGCS algorithm privileged SGS algorithm with smaller root mean square error according to the generated realizations. In addition, SGCS algorithm had larger proportions of true values falling within probability intervals and narrower range of probability intervals than SGS algorithm. We concluded that SGCS algorithm had better performance in modeling local uncertainty and propagating spatial uncertainty. The inclusion of auxiliary variable contributed to prediction capability and uncertainty modeling when using densely auxiliary variable as the covariate to predict the sparse target variable.     

Determination of heavy metals and metals levels in five fish species from I??kl? Dam Lake and Karaca?ren Dam Lake (Turkey)

The concentrations of heavy metals and metals (Zn, Pb, Bi, Cd, Ni, Co, Fe, Mn, Mg, Cu, Cr, Ca, Sr, Na, Li, K) were measured in muscle of five species Cyprinus carpio (from I??kl? dam), Scardinius erythrophthalmus (from I??kl? dam), Tinca tinca (from I??kl? dam), C. carpio (from Karaca?ren dam), Carassius carassius (from Karaca?ren dam) caught from I??kl? and Karaca?ren. The highest metal was Na (466.95 μg/g) in C. carassius, while the lowest levels were Fe (0.37 μg/g) and Cu (0.37 μg/g) in C. carpio from I??kl? dam. The mean concentrations μg/g d.w. some of heavy metals in muscle of C. carpio (from I??kl? dam), S. erythrophthalmus (from I??kl? dam), T. tinca (from I??kl? dam), C. carpio (from Karaca?ren dam), C. carassius (from Karaca?ren dam) were as follows: Cd 2.00-2.10-1.95-2.06-2.27, Zn 4.36-2.64-13.13-13.33-24.47, Pb 1.65-1.24-1.90-2.37-2.41, Co 2.46-2.37-2.48-2.58-2.80, Mg 138.51-154.35-218.59-204.58-202.16, Fe 0.37-2.62-3.17-3.01-12.33, respectively.