Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metals and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in Spruce Forest Soil under Conditions of Regional Pollution

The influence of horizontal structure of spruce forest on the spatial distribution of acid-soluble Zn, Cd, Pb compounds and ¹³⁷Cs in the litter and the humus horizon of soddy podzolic soil has been studied in the territory with the regional background level of industrial fallout. It has been found that the distribution pattern of Zn in the forest litter is a result of biogeochemical processes. The litter in fern–wood sorrel microplots contains increased amounts of Zn and Cd, while the contents of Pb and ¹³⁷Cs are decreased. The distribution patterns of Pb and ¹³⁷Cs in the litter are positively correlated with each other, since both elements are deposited from the atmosphere, and similar mechanisms account for their redistribution in the spruce forest ecosystem.     

Overcoming barriers to sustainability by combining conceptual,visual, and networking systems

Sustainability challenges rarely align with the conventional boundaries of our disciplines, institutions and means of communication. To address these challenges amid real-world complexity, we need to think holistically and collaborate across disciplines. In this paper, we synthesise three themes: (1) more integrated conceptual frameworks; (2) digital visual communication which provides fluid expression of complex ideas and perceptions; and (3) online networks which can empower sustainability initiatives and communicate them across social and institutional barriers at a global scale. Each of these tools can help to overcome persistent barriers to sustainability. When used together, they provide a strategic basis for the design of digital collaboration platforms for addressing sustainability challenges. Using design thinking, we developed a Synergy Map which identifies relationships among a number of barriers to sustainability and conceptual and digital tools which help to address them. The Map identifies the potential for synthesising these tools into effective digital artefacts. We provide several examples and identify characteristics of particular value for overcoming barriers to sustainability. Combining new theoretical developments in sustainability sciences with recent advances in communication and networking technologies offers substantial potential for advancing sustainability on multiple fronts.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Towards quantifying the glacial runoff signal in the freshwater input to Tyrolerfjord–Young Sound,NE Greenland

Terrestrial freshwater runoff strongly influences physical and biogeochemical processes at the fjord scale and can have global impacts when considered at the Greenland scale. We investigate the performance of the HIRHAM5 regional climate model over the catchments delivering freshwater to Tyrolerfjord and Young Sound by comparing to the unique Greenland Ecological Monitoring database of in situ observations from this region. Based on these findings, we estimate and discuss the fraction of runoff originating from glacierized and non-glacierized land delivered at the daily scale between 1996 and 2008. We find that glaciers contributed on average 50–80% of annual terrestrial runoff when considering different sections of Tyrolerfjord–Young Sound, but snowpack depletion on land and consequently runoff happens about one month earlier in the model than observed in the field. The temporal shift in the model is a likely explanation why summer surface salinity in the inner fjord did not correlate to modelled runoff.     

Goose management schemes to resolve conflicts with agriculture: Theory,practice and effects

In 2012, the four countries hosting the Svalbard population of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus along its flyway launched an International Species Management Plan for the population. One of the aims was to reduce conflicts between geese and agriculture to an acceptable level. Since 2006, Norway has offered subsidies to farmers that provide refuge areas for geese on their land. We evaluate the mid-Norwegian goose management subsidy scheme, with a view to its adjustment to prevailing ecological and socio-economic parameters. The analysis indicates that the legitimacy of the scheme is highly dependent on transparency of knowledge management and accountability of management scheme to the farming community. Among farmers, as well as front-line officials, outcomes of prioritisation processes within the scheme are judged unfair when there is an evident mismatch between payments and genuine damage. We suggest how the scheme can be made more fair and responsive to ecological changes, within a framework of adaptive management.     

Scaring as a tool to alleviate crop damage by geese: Revealing differences between farmers’ perceptions and the scale of the problem

Expanding populations of farmland foraging geese are causing escalating conflict with agriculture. We used questionnaires to investigate farmers´ perceptions in mid-Norway of spring staging geese and the extent to which they attempt to reduce pasture damage by goose scaring. We predicted farmers’ scaring effort (a measure of dissatisfaction) to increase on fields closer to goose roosting sites where goose grazing intensity was highest (measured by dropping counts). Results showed no such relationship, suggesting that farmers’ perception of goose use was not linked to actual goose use, but influenced by sociological factors and individual opinion. These results confirm the need to distribute subsidies/compensation to affected farmers based upon quantifiable measures of goose use rather than complaint levels. To avoid further conflict escalation, it is equally important that managers are aware of farmers´ perceptions and their causes, to effectively target communication about policies and measures to mitigate goose–agriculture problems.     

A new approach for the modelling of chestnut wood photo-degradation monitored by different spectroscopic techniques

The aim of this work is to study the colour and chemical modifications of the surfaces in chestnut wood samples as a consequence of irradiating in a controlled environment. The changes were investigated by a new analytical approach by combining traditional techniques such as reflectance spectrophotometry in the visible range and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with new hyperspectral imaging, in order to obtain forecast models to describe the phenomenon. The statistical elaboration of the experimental data allowed to validate the measurements and to obtain models enabling to relate the investigated parameters; the elaboration of the hyperspectral images by chemometric methods allowed for studying the changes in the reflectance spectra. A result of great importance is the possibility to correlate the oxidation of wood chemical components with the colour change in a totally non-invasive modality. This result is particularly relevant in the field of cultural heritage and in general in the control processes of wooden materials.     

Development of the hybrid cells in series model to simulate ammonia nutrient pollutant transport along the Umgeni River

Discharge of organic waste results in high nutrient pollution of the water bodies which is a major menace to the environment. A high quantity of nutrients such as ammonia causes a reduction in the dissolved oxygen level and induces algal growth in the water bodies. Water quality models have been the tools to evaluate the rate at which streams can disperse the pollutants they receive. Many water quality models are flawed either because of their inadequacy to completely simulate the advection component of the pollutant transport, or because of the limited application of the models, due to inaccurate estimation of model parameters. The hybrid cell in series (HCIS) developed by Ghosh et al. (2004) has been able to overcome such difficulties associated with the mixing cell-based models. Thus, the current study focuses on developing an analytical solution for the pollutant transport of the ammonia concentration through the plug flow, the first and second well-mixed cells of the HCIS model. The HCIS model coupled with the first order kinetic equation for ammonia nutrient was developed to simulate the ammonia pollutant concentration in the water column. The ammonia concentration at various points along the river system was assessed by considering the effects of the transformation of ammonia to nitrite, the uptake of ammonia by the algae, the respiration rate of the algae and the input of benthic source to the ammonia concentration in the water column. The proposed model was tested using synthetic data, and the HCIS-NH₃ model simulations for spatial and temporal variation of ammonia pollutant transport were analysed. The simulated results of the HCIS-NH₃ model agreed with the Fickian-based advection-dispersion equation (ADE) for simulating ammonia concentration solved using an explicit finite difference scheme. The HCIS-NH₃ model also showed a good agreement with the observed data from the Umgeni River, except during rainy periods.