Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Maternal investment in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta): reproductive costs and consequences of raising sons

Maternal investment in offspring is expected to vary according to offspring sex when the reproductive success of the progeny is a function of differential levels of parental expenditure. We conducted a longitudinal investigation of rhesus macaques to determine whether variation in male progeny production, measured with both DNA fingerprinting and short tandem repeat marker typing, could be traced back to patterns of maternal investment. Males weigh significantly more than females at birth, despite an absence of sex differences in gestation length. Size dimorphism increases during infancy, with maternal rank associated with son’s, but not daughter’s, weight at the end of the period of maternal investment. Son’s, but not daughter’s, weight at 1 year of age is significantly correlated with adult weight, and male, but not female, weight accounts for a portion of the variance in reproductive success. Variance in annual offspring output was three- to fourfold higher in males than in females. We suggest that energetic costs of rearing sons could be buffered by fetal delivery of testosterone to the mother, which is aromatized to estrogen and fosters fat accumulation during gestation. We conclude that maternal investment is only slightly greater in sons than in daughters, with mothers endowing sons with extra resources because son, but not daughter, mass has ramifications for offspring sirehood. However, male reproductive tactics supersede maternal investment patterns as fundamental regulators of male fitness. Received: 23 July 1999 / Received in revised form: 23 February 2000 / Accepted: 13 March 2000     

Reproduction, larval development and functional relationships of the burrowing, spionid polychaete Dipolydora armata with the calcareous hydrozoan Millepora complanata

Dipolydora armata (Langerhans, 1880) is a small (4 to 5 mm) spionid polychaete found burrowing in the calcareous hydrozoan Millepora complanata Lamarck, 1816, on coral reefs at Barbados, West Indies. It excavates complex networks of interconnecting burrows and forms aggregations of worms in cavities within branches of the coral. Adult worms have a mixed feeding mode (suspension feeding and deposit feeding). Size–frequency distributions of worms in branch samples suggest that they mature in a single year and that reproduction occurs throughout the year. Burrow openings on the surface of the coral develop distinctive, erect spines caused by combined growth of worm tubes and host tissue. Millepore zooids were absent in the vicinity of tube openings and on spines, and thus the potential feeding surface of the coral will be reduced in heavily colonized branches. Burrows and openings were densest at the bases of millepore branches where weakening of the skeleton would be expected to occur. The absence of openings near the branch tips suggests difficulty in larval settlement there, amongst stinging zooids. Reproduction␣and larval development of the worms were examined, and a sequence of larval stages from one to 20 segments and a juvenile stage of 22 segments are described. Eggs are deposited in brood sacs attached to the burrow wall, and the larvae feed upon nurse eggs (adelphophagy). The presence of larvae and juveniles occurring free in the burrows suggests that larval development may be completed within the host coral as an alternative or in addition to a planktonic larval phase. Lack of provisional larval setae, early development of adult capillary setae, production of special spermatophores and a protracted breeding cycle in D. armata are all traits which would favour complete development within the host skeleton. Received: 6 March 1997 / Accepted: 25 October 1997     

The role of daytime cues in the development of magnetic orientation in a night-migrating bird

To assess the role of celestial rotation during daytime in the development of the magnetic compass course, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca Pallas, Muscicapidae) were handraised in Latvia under various celestial and magnetic conditions. Tests were performed during autumn migration in the local geomagnetic field (50 000 nT, 73° inclination) in the absence of celestial cues. A group of birds that had never seen the sky showed a bimodal preference for the migratory southwest-northeast axis, whereas a second group that had been exposed to the natural sky from sunrise to sunset in the local geomagnetic field showed a unimodal preference for the seasonally appropriate southwesterly direction. A third group that had also been exposed to the daytime sky, but in the absence of magnetic compass information, also oriented bimodally along a southwest-northeast axis. These findings demonstrate that observing celestial rotation during daytime enables birds to choose the right end of the migratory axis for autumn migration at the Latvian test location. This transformation of axial behavior into appropriate migratory orientation, however, requires the birds to have simultaneous access to information on both celestial rotation and the geomagnetic field. Received: 19 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 22 November 1997     

Restricted adaptive cluster sampling

Adaptive cluster sampling can be a useful design for sampling rare and patchy populations. With this design the initial sample size is fixed but the size of the final sample (and total sampling effort) cannot be predicted prior to sampling. For some populations the final sample size can be quite variable depending on the level of patchiness. Restricted adaptive cluster sampling is a proposed modification where a limit is placed on the sample size prior to sampling and quadrats are selected sequentially for the initial sample size. As a result there is less variation in the final sample size and the total sampling effort can be predicted with some certainty, which is impor- tant for many ecological studies. Estimates of density are biased with the restricted design but under some circumstances the bias can be estimated well by bootstrapping. © Rapid Science 1998     

Metals in Feathers of Bonin Petrel, Christmas Shearwater, Wedge-Tailed Shearwater, and Red-Tailed Tropicbird in the Hawaian Islands, Northern Pacific

Levels of environmental pollutants are usually higher in mainland and coastal areas than in offshore or oceanic islands due to higher inputs from agricultural and industrial sources. Levels of heavy metals are usually higher in adult than in young birds, because they have had longer to accumulate metals in their tissues, and/or because they may eat larger, more contaminated, prey. We examined the levels of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, manganese, mercury, and selenium in the adults and young of Bonin petrel (Pterodroma hypoleuca), Christmas shearwater (Puffinus nativitatis) and red-tailed tropicbird (Phaethon rubricauda) on Midway Atoll, and adult wedge-tailed shearwater (Puffinus pacificus) on Midway Atoll and on Manana Island (off Oahu) in the northern Pacific. All birds were analyzed individually except for Christmas Shearwater chicks where samples were pooled to obtain sufficient quantities for analysis. Significant (p<0.05) age-related differences were found for mercury, selenium, manganese and chromium in Bonin petrels, for selenium and mercury in Christmas shearwaters, and for chromium and mercury in Red-tailed Tropicbirds. Lead approached significance for all three species. Adults had higher levels than young except for chromium and manganese in the petrels and arsenic in all three species. There were significant interspecific differences in concentrations of all metals except arsenic for the adults nesting on Midway. Christmas shearwaters had the highest levels of all metals except mercury and chromium. Bonin petrels, the smallest species examined, had mercury levels that were over three times higher than any of the adults of the other three species. For wedge-tailed shearwaters, levels of chromium and lead were significantly higher, and manganese and selenium were lower on Midway than Manana. Knowledge of the foraging ranges and habits of these far-ranging seabirds is inadequately known, but does not currently explain the observed differences among species. We could not find a consistent pattern of differences between the burrow nesting species (Bonin petrel, Wedge-tailed shearwater) and the surface nesting tropicbirds. There was no consistent pairwise correlation between any metals across all species.     

Effect of two major N-nitroso hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) metabolites on earthworm reproductive success

Soil and topical tests were employed to investigate the effect of two N-nitroso metabolites of RDX (hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine) on earthworm reproduction. The lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) for cocoon production and hatching was 50mg/kg for both hexahydro-1-nitroso-3,5-dinitro-1,3,5-triazine (MNX) and hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitroso-1,3,5-triazine (TNX) in soil. MNX and TNX also significantly affected cocoon hatching in soil (p<0.001) and in topical tests (p=0.001). The LOECs for cocoon hatching were 1 and 10mg/kg for MNX and TNX in soil, respectively, and 10mg/L in the topical test. Greater than 100mg/kg MNX and TNX completely inhibited cocoon hatching. In soil, the EC20 values for MNX were 8.7 and 8.8mg/kg for cocoon and juvenile production, respectively, compared to 9.2 and 9.1mg/kg for TNX, respectively. The EC20 values for the total number of cocoon hatchlings were 3.1 and 4.7mg/kg for MNX and TNX, respectively, in soil and 4.5 and 3.1mg/L in the topical test. Both MNX and TNX inhibited cocoon production and hatching, suggesting that they may have a negative affect on soil ecosystems at contaminated sites.     

Effect of field exposure to 38-year-old residual petroleum hydrocarbons on growth, condition index, and filtration rate of the ribbed mussel, Geukensia demissa

In September 1969, the Florida barge spilled 700,000 L of No. 2 fuel oil into the salt marsh sediments of Wild Harbor, MA. Today a substantial amount, approximately 100 kg, of moderately degraded petroleum remains within the sediment and along eroding creek banks. The ribbed mussels, Geukensia demissa, which inhabit the salt marsh creek bank, are exposed to the spilled oil. Examination of short-term exposure was done with transplantation of G. demissa from a control site, Great Sippewissett marsh, into Wild Harbor. We also examined the effects of long-term exposure with transplantation of mussels from Wild Harbor into Great Sippewissett. Both the short- and long-term exposure transplants exhibited slower growth rates, shorter mean shell lengths, lower condition indices, and decreased filtration rates. The results add new knowledge about long-term consequences of spilled oil, a dimension that should be included when assessing oil-impacted areas and developing management plans designed to restore, rehabilitate, or replace impacted areas.     

A quantitative approach to the traffic air quality problem: the Traffic Air Quality index

The Traffic Air Quality (TAQ) model is a simple tool to estimate traffic fine particulate emissions on roadways (g/km) and can be used for both real-time analysis and for localized conformity analysis ("hot-spot" analysis for nonattainment areas) as defined by 40 CFR 93.123. This paper is a follow-up to a study published earlier regarding the development of the TAQ model. This paper shows how local air quality levels can be a factor in traffic management in nonattainment areas. Similar to the industrial source quotas measured in tons per year, it is proposed that road segments are to be assigned emission quotas (or TAQ indices) measured in pollutant mass emitted per road length (g/km) above which traffic-measures have to be taken to reduce the fine-particulates emissions on such road links. The TAQ model as well as traffic-rerouting measures along with the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) protocols can be used to have a real-time control of the traffic conditions along expressways to maintain the fine-particulates emissions below the quota assigned per road link and consequently improving the over all local air quality in nonattainment areas.