Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

Dust from Zambian smelters: mineralogy and contaminant bioaccessibility

Metal smelting is often responsible for local contamination of environmental compartments. Dust materials escaping from the smelting facilities not only settle in the soil, but can also have direct effects on populations living close to these operations (by ingestion or inhalation). In this particular study, we investigate dusts from Cu–Co metal smelters in the Zambian Copperbelt, using a combination of mineralogical techniques (XRD, SEM/EDS, and TEM/EDS), in order to understand the solid speciation of the contaminants, as well as their bioaccessibility using in vitro tests in simulated gastric and lung fluids to assess the exposure risk for humans. The leaching of metals was mainly dependent on the contaminant mineralogy. Based on our results, a potential risk can be recognized, particularly from ingestion of the dust, with bioaccessible fractions ranging from 21 to 89 % of the total contaminant concentrations. In contrast, relatively low bioaccessible fractions were observed for simulated lung fluid extracts, with values ranging from 0.01 % (Pb) up to 16.5 % (Co) of total contaminant concentrations. Daily intakes via oral exposure, calculated for an adult (70 kg, ingestion rate 50 mg dust per day), slightly exceeded the tolerable daily intake limits for Co (1.66× for fly ash and 1.19× for slag dust) and occasionally also for Pb (1.49×, fly ash) and As (1.64×, electrostatic precipitator dust). Cobalt has been suggested as the most important pollutant, and the direct pathways of the population’s exposures to dust particles in the industrial parts of the Zambian Copperbelt should be further studied in interdisciplinary investigations.     

Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) movement patterns and habitat use determined by satellite tagging in eastern Australian waters

Partial migration is considered ubiquitous among vertebrates, but little is known about the movements of oceanodromous apex predators such as sharks, particularly at their range extents. PAT-Mk10 and SPOT5 electronic tags were used to investigate tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) spatial dynamics, site fidelity and habitat use off eastern Australia between April 2007 and May 2013. Of the 18 tags deployed, 15 recorded information on depth and/or temperature, and horizontal movements. Tracking times ranged between four and 408 days, with two recovered pop-up archival tags allowing 63 days of high-resolution archived data to be analysed. Overall mean proportions of time-at-depth revealed that G. cuvier spent the majority of time-at-depths of <20 m, but undertook dives as deep as 920 m. Tagged sharks occupied ambient water temperatures from 29.5 °C at the surface to 5.9 °C at depth. Deep dives (>500 m) occurred mostly around dawn and dusk, but no definitive daily dive patterns were observed. Horizontal movements were characterised by combinations of resident and transient behaviour that coincided with seasonal changes in water temperature. While the majority of movement activity was focused around continental slope waters, large-scale migration was evident with one individual moving from offshore Sydney, Australia, to New Caledonia (c. 1,800 km) in 48 days. Periods of tiger shark residency outside of Australia’s fisheries management zones highlight the potential vulnerability of the species to unregulated fisheries and the importance of cross-jurisdictional arrangements for species’ management and conservation.     

Does the metal content in soil around a pregnant woman’s home increase the risk of low birth weight for her infant?

Low birth weight (LBW) is associated with a number of maternal environmental exposures during pregnancy. This study explored the association between soil metal concentrations around the home where the mother lived during pregnancy and the outcome of LBW. We used a retrospective cohort of 9,920 mother–child pairs who were insured by Medicaid during pregnancy and lived in ten residential areas, where we conducted soil sampling. We used a grid that overlaid the residential areas and collected soil samples at the grid intersections. The soil was analyzed for the concentration of eight metals [arsenic (As), barium (Ba), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), and mercury (Hg)], and we then used Bayesian Kriging to estimate the concentration at the actual maternal addresses, since we had the GIS coordinates of the homes. We used generalized additive modeling, because the metal concentrations had nonlinear associations with LBW, to develop the best fitting multivariable model for estimating the risk of LBW. The final model showed significant associations for female infants, maternal smoking during pregnancy, non-white mothers, Cu, and As with LBW. The As variable was nonlinear in relation to LBW, and the association between higher concentrations of As with LBW was strong (p = 0.002). We identified a statistically significant association between soil concentrations of arsenic around the home of pregnant women and an increased risk of LBW for her infant.     

Seasonal modulation of flight speed among nocturnal passerine migrants: differences between short- and long-distance migrants

Migrating birds are expected to fly at higher airspeeds when minimizing time rather than energy costs of their migratory journeys. Spring migration has often been suggested to be more time selected than autumn migration, because of the advantage of early arrival at breeding sites. We have earlier demonstrated that nocturnal passerine migrants fly at higher airspeeds during spring compared to autumn, supporting time-selected spring migration. In this study, we test the hypothesis that seasonal airspeeds are modulated differently between short- and long-distance migrants, because of a stronger element of time selection for autumn migration over long distances. In support of this hypothesis, we demonstrate that the seasonal difference in airspeed is significantly larger (spring airspeed exceeding autumn airspeed by a factor of 1.16 after correcting for the influence of altitude, wind and climb/descent on airspeed) among short-distance compared to long-distance (factor 1.12) migrants. This result is based on a large sample of tracking radar data from 3 years at Falsterbo, South Sweden. Short-distance migrants also tend to fly with more favourable winds during autumn, indicating relaxed time constraints (being able to afford to wait for favourable winds) compared to long-distance migrants. These results indicate surprisingly fine-tuned seasonal modulation of airspeed and responses to wind, associated with behavioural strategies adapted to different levels of time selection pressures during spring and autumn migration.     

Convergent development of ecological,genetic, and morphological traits in native supercolonies of the red ant Myrmica rubra

Ant supercolonies (large networks of interconnected nests) represent the most extreme form of multi-queen breeding (polygyny) and have been found across ant lineages, usually in specific long-term stable populations. Many studies on the genetic population structure and demography of ant supercolonies have been done in recent decades, but they have lacked multicolonial control patches with separated colonies headed by a single or few queens so the origin of the supercolonial trait syndrome has remained enigmatic. Here, we set out to compare sympatric supercolonial and multicolonial patches in two natural Danish populations of the common red ant Myrmica rubra. We used DNA microsatellites to reconstruct genetic colony/population structure and obtained morphological and density measurements to estimate life history and ecology covariates. We found that supercolonies in both populations completely dominated their patches whereas colonies in multicolonial patches coexisted with other ant species. Supercolony patches had very low genetic differentiation between nests, negligible relatedness within nests, and lower inbreeding than multicolonial patches, but there were no significant morphological differences. One population also had nests that approached true outbred monogyny with larger workers and males but smaller queens than in the two other social nest types. Our results suggest that once smaller colonies start to adopt additional queens, they also gain the potential to ultimately become supercolonial when the habitat allows rapid expansion through nest budding. This is relevant for understanding obligate polygyny in ants and for appreciating how and why introduced North American populations of M. rubra have recently become invasive.     

Sex ratio varies with egg investment in the red-necked phalarope (Phalaropus lobatus)

Fisher’s sex ratio theory predicts that on average parents should allocate resources equally to the production of males and females. However, when the cost/benefit ratio for producing males versus females differs, the theory predicts that parents may bias production, typically through underproduction of the sex with greater variation in fitness. We tested theoretical predictions in the red-necked phalarope, a polyandrous shorebird with sex-role reversal. Since females are larger and therefore potentially more expensive to produce and may have greater variation in reproductive success, we predicted from Fisher’s hypothesis a male bias in population embryonic sex ratio, and from sex allocation theory, female biases in the clutches of females allocating more resources to reproduction. We measured eggs and chicks and sexed 535 offspring from 163 clutches laid over 6 years at two sites in Alaska. The embryonic sex ratio of 51.1 M:48.9 F did not vary from parity. Clutch sex ratio (% male) was positively correlated with clutch mean egg size, opposite to our prediction. Within clutches, however, egg size did not differ by sex. Male phalarope fitness may be more variable than previously thought, and/or differential investment in eggs may affect the within-sex fitness of males more than females. Eggs producing males were less dense than those producing females, possibly indicating they contained more yolk relative to albumen. Albumen contributes to chick structural size, while yolk supports survivorship after hatch. Sex-specific chick growth strategies may affect egg size and allocation patterns by female phalaropes and other birds.     

Do leaf-cutter ants Atta colombica obtain their magnetic sensors from soil?

How animals sense, process, and use magnetic information remains elusive. In insects, magnetic particles are candidates for a magnetic sensor. Recent studies suggest that the ant Pachycondyla marginata incorporates iron-containing particles from soil. We used leaf-cutter ants Atta colombica to test whether soil contact is necessary for developing a functional magnetic compass. A. colombica is the only invertebrate known to calculate a path-integrated home vector using a magnetic compass. Here, we show that A. colombica requires contact with soil to incorporate magnetic particles that can be used as a magnetic compass; yet, we also show that ants can biosynthesize magnetic particles. Workers from a soil-free colony ignored a 90° shift in the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field, yet oriented homeward despite the occlusion of any geocentric cues. In contrast, workers from a soil-exposed colony oriented to an intermediate direction between their true and subjective home in the shifted field. Homeward orientations under shifted fields suggest that ants calculated a path-integrated vector using proprioceptive information. Strikingly, ants from the soil-free colony also had magnetic particles; yet, as observed by ferromagnetic resonance, these particles differed from those in soil-exposed ants and were not associated with a magnetic compass sensitive to this experimental manipulation.     

Organic compounds in water extracts of coal: links to Balkan endemic nephropathy

The Pliocene lignite hypothesis is an environmental hypothesis that has been proposed to explain the etiology of Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN). Aqueous leaching experiments were conducted on a variety of coal samples in order to simulate groundwater leaching of organic compounds, and to further test the role of the Pliocene lignite hypothesis in the etiology of BEN. Experiments were performed on lignite coal samples from endemic BEN areas in Romania and Serbia, and lignite and bituminous coals from nonendemic regions in Romania and the USA. Room temperature, hot water bath, and Soxhlet aqueous extraction experiments were conducted between 25 and 80 °C, and from 5 to 128 days in duration. A greater number of organic compounds and in higher concentrations were present in all three types of leaching experiments involving endemic area Pliocene lignite samples compared to all other coals examined. A BEN causing molecule or molecules may be among phenols, PAHs, benzenes, and/or lignin degradation compounds. The proposed transport pathway of the Pliocene lignite hypothesis for organic compound exposure from endemic area Pliocene lignite coals to well and spring drinking water, is likely. Aromatic compounds leached by groundwater from Pliocene lignite deposits in the vicinity of endemic BEN areas may play a role in the etiology of the disease. A better understanding of organic compounds leached by groundwater from Pliocene lignite deposits may potentially lead to the identification and implementation of effective strategies for the prevention of exposure to the causative agent(s) for BEN, and in turn, prevention of the disease.     

Sclerochronological studies reveal that patterns of otolith growth of adults of two co-occurring species of Platycephalidae are synchronised by water temperature variations

Chronologies are developed from the otolith growth-increment widths of adult rock flathead (Platycephalus laevigatus) and longhead flathead (Leviprora inops) collected from three inter-connected embayments in temperate south-western Australia. Marginal increment trends on otoliths, in combination with the dendrochronological technique of crossdating, provide strong evidence that an opaque zone is formed annually in the otoliths of both species. Increment widths between opaque zones in the otoliths of individuals of P. laevigatus (maximum age 20 years) and L. inops (maximum age 21 years) were synchronised within and between species. The correlation between the two master otolith chronologies, i.e. mean standardised increment width for each year, was highly significant (P < 0.01). The master otolith chronology for each species was positively correlated with mean sea surface temperatures from 1 July to 30 June, which encompassed the austral summer when growth is typically greatest, and with mean monthly sea surface temperature between September and March. Leeuwin Current strength, which influences the biotic characteristics of some marine species on the south coast, has little influence on the pattern of otolith growth, presumably because the inter-connected embayments from which fish were obtained were partially enclosed. On the basis of the above data and the geographical distributions of P. laevigatus and L. inops, it is proposed that, while both species would grow faster with increasing temperature, the temperatures on the south coast are closer to the optimum for the former species.