Exploring red deer culling strategies using a population-specific calibrated management model

Wildlife management is generally carried out under conditions of uncertainty. The exact population size is unknown, its future dynamics are uncertain and clear management objectives are often not formulated. In order to provide management advice in this situation, a framework is presented for combining different sources of information using a Bayesian approach for calibrating a management model. Harvesting strategies can then be explored based on predictions of future populations size and structure which incorporate parameter uncertainty. This method makes it possible to evaluate the probability of achieving certain objectives with different management strategies. The advantage of the approach presented in this paper lies in that both the model and the harvesting strategies are adaptable to any particular population of interest. The approach is illustrated for two Scottish red deer populations for which culling strategies corresponding to different management objectives are explored and their benefits evaluated. It is found that each population requires different culling rates for keeping population number stable, demonstrating the benefits of the population specific calibration of the management model.     

Simulation of Live and Dead Phytomass Formation and Transformation in Optimized Agrocenoses

The formation and transformation of live and dead phytomass in agrocenoses with a complex horizontal structure are described. These processes are demonstrated to be specific and to be determined by differences in the horizontal structure. Only agrocenoses of a mosaic structure (with square parcels) have optimal conditions for these processes.     

On Methods for Analyzing Ecotones of Forest Margins

A simple method for the quantitative gradient analysis of a xerotermic forest-margin ecotone is described. In this method, the mean value of the coefficient of similarity between all plots of the transect is used for estimating the rate of changes in species composition. Changes in the phytosociological spectrum are analyzed. The method adequately reflects trends in the displacement of forest species by forest-margin, steppe, and meadow species.     

Lightning Fires in a Brazilian Savanna National Park: Rethinking Management Strategies

Fire occurrences and their sources were monitored in Emas National Park, Brazil (17°49′–18°28′S; 52°39′–53°10′W) from June 1995 to May 1999. The extent of burned area and weather conditions were registered. Forty-five fires were recorded and mapped on a GIS during this study. Four fires occurred in the dry winter season (June–August; 7,942 ha burned), all caused by humans; 10 fires occurred in the seasonally transitional months (May and September) (33,386 ha burned); 31 fires occurred in the wet season, of which 30 were caused by lightning inside the park (29,326 ha burned), and one started outside the park (866 ha burned). Wet season lightning fires started in the open vegetation (wet field or grassy savanna) at a flat plateau, an area that showed significantly higher fire incidence. On average, winter fires burned larger areas and spread more quickly, compared to lightning fires, and fire suppression was necessary to extinguish them. Most lightning fires were patchy and extinguished primarily by rain. Lightning fires in the wet season, previously considered unimportant episodes, were shown to be very frequent and probably represent the natural fire pattern in the region. Lightning fires should be regarded as ecologically beneficial, as they create natural barriers to the spread of winter fires. The present fire management in the park is based on the burning of preventive firebreaks in the dry season and exclusion of any other fire. This policy does not take advantage of the beneficial effects of the natural fire regime and may in fact reduce biodiversity. The results presented here stress the need for reevaluating present policies and management procedures concerning fire in cerrado conservation areas.     

Application of a stochastic, Weibull probability generator for replacing missing data on ambient concentrations of gaseous pollutants

A stochastic, three-parameter, Weibull frequency distribution, probability generator was tested by using theoretical data. Subsequently, it was applied to replace missing values of hourly atmospheric concentrations of trace gases that were continuously monitored at three study sites, for 2 years. The results were highly accurate and realistic. The cumulative means and the medians calculated by the Weibull method were intermediate between corresponding values calculated by uniform substitution of missing values with 'zero' or with half of the minimum detection limit of the appropriate measurement instrument used. Furthermore, the Weibull method allowed the replacement of as many as 100 missing values on either side of a measured data sub-set, without altering the overall characteristics of the true frequency distribution of the entire data set.     

Exposure Programme on Atmospheric Corrosion Effects of Acidifying Pollutants in Tropical and Subtropical Climates

Many national exposure programmes have been performed in tropical and subtropical climates during the last 50 years. However, ambitious programmes involving more than a few countries are scarce. In this paper a recently formed network of test sites is described involving 12 test sites in Asia (India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and China including Hong Kong) and four test sites in Africa (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). This effort is part of the 2001–2004 Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) funded Programme on Regional Air Pollution in Developing Countries (RAPIDC). Corrosion attack after one (2002–2003) year of exposure (carbon steel, zinc, copper, limestone and paint coated steel) are presented together with environmental data (SO₂, NO₂, HNO₃, O₃, particles, amount and pH of precipitation, temperature and relative humidity) for all the test sites. The obtained corrosion values are substantially higher than expected for limestone, higher than expected for carbon steel and lower than expected for zinc compared to values calculated using the best available dose–response functions.     

Technological improvements in automotive battery recycling

Recycling of automotive batteries for the recovery of secondary lead is extremely important in Brazil, for the country does not possess large reserves of this metal. Lead is one of the most widely used metals in the world, but it is highly toxic, posing risks for humans and for the environment if not utilized or treated adequately. Industrial waste containing lead in Brazil are classified by the Brazilian Residue Code (NBR—10004:2004) as hazardous. The lead recycling process employed by the recycling industry in Brazil is the pyrometallurgical process in a rotary furnace. This process consists of four stages: (1) grinding of the battery to separate plastic, electrolyte and lead plates; (2) lead reduction in a rotary furnace; (3) separation of metallic lead from slag; and (4) refining of recycled lead. The purpose of this work is to propose process improvements aimed primarily at increasing production output by reducing the loss of lead in slag and particulates, thereby providing a healthier work environment in line with Brazilian environmental and labor laws.     

Modeling of n-butane ignition, combustion, and preflame oxidation in the 20-l vessel

The objective of the study reported herein is to simulate various physical and chemical phenomena accompanying fuel-rich n-butane–oxygen mixture preparation, ignition, preflame oxidation, and combustion in the standard 20-l explosion vessel, by applying mathematical models. Based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the mixing process and natural convection of the ignition kernel, as well as on the analysis of the detailed reaction mechanism of n-butane oxidation, laminar flame propagation, and self-ignition, possible explanations for the phenomena observed experimentally have been suggested. The results of the study indicate that seemingly inflammable mixtures can become hazardous depending on the mixture preparation procedure and forced ignition timing.     

Fire and explosion risk assessment for large-scale oil export terminal

Now in Russian Federation and other countries large-scale oil terminals (volume of one tank exceeds 100 000 m³, total volume of tanks exceeds 300 000 m³) are designed and constructed. Therefore fire safety of such objects becomes a very important task, solution of which is hardly possible without detail fire risk assessment. This study is aimed to a solution of this problem. Potential, individual and social risks were calculated. The potential risk was defined as a frequency of occurrence of hazardous factors of fires and explosions in a given point of space (the so-called risk contours). The individual risk was defined as a frequency of injuring a given person by hazardous factors of fires and explosions. Time of presence of this person in hazardous zones (near the hazardous installation) is taken into account during calculations of the individual risk. Social risk was defined as a dependence of frequency of injuring a given number of people by hazardous factors of fires and explosions on this number. In practice the social risk is usually determined on injuring not less than 10 people.

The oil terminal under consideration includes the following main parts: crude oil storage consisting of three tanks of volume 100 000 m³ each, input crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.6 m, crude oil pumps, output crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.8 m, auxiliary buildings and facilities. The following main scenarios of tank fires have been considered: rim seal fire, pool fire on a surface of a floating roof, pool fire on a total cross-section surface of the tank, pool fire in a dyke, explosions in closed or semiclosed volumes. Fires and explosions in other parts of the terminal are also taken into account. Effects of escalation of accidents are considered.

Risk contours have been calculated both for the territory of the terminal and for the neighbouring space. The potential risk for the storage zone is near 10⁻⁴–10⁻⁵ year⁻¹, and at a distance 500 m from the terminal the potential risk values do not exceed 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. The values of the individual risk for various categories of workers are in the range of 10⁻⁵–10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. Because of low number of the workers on the terminal and large distances to towns and villages the social risk value is negligible. These risk values are consistent with practice of the best oil companies, and fire hazard level of the terminal can be accepted as tolerable.