PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall-runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.     

Does trait affect promote job attitude stability?

Trait affect has been studied as a factor which may help explain why job attitudes tend to be rather enduring over time. In this study, test-retest correlations of various job attitudes measured 7 years apart were relatively unaffected by controlling for five measures of affective disposition.     

Evaluating the potential of biodiversity offsets to achieve net gain

Evaluating the outcomes and tracking the trajectory of biodiversity offsets is essential to demonstrating their effectiveness as a mechanism to conciliate development and conservation. We reviewed the literature to determine the principles that should underpin biodiversity offset planning and the criteria for offset evaluation at the project level. According to the literature, the core principles of equivalence, additionality, and permanence are used as criteria to evaluate conservation outcomes of offsets. We applied the criteria to evaluate offsets of a large iron ore mining project in the Atlantic Forest in Brazil. We examined equivalence in terms of the amount of area per biodiversity value affected and fauna and flora similarity, additionality in terms of landscape connectivity, and permanence in terms of guarantees to ensure protection and restoration offsets lasting outcomes. We found an offset ratio (amount of affected area:offset area) of 1:1.8 for forests and 1:2 for grasslands. Ecological equivalence (i.e., similarity between affected and offset areas) was found for forested areas, but not for ferruginous rupestrian grasslands or for fauna. Landscape metrics showed that connectivity improved relative to the preproject situation as a result of locating restoration offsets in the largest and best-connected forest patch. Permanence of offsets was addressed by establishing covenants and management measures, but financial guarantees to cover maintenance costs after mine closure were lacking. Offsets should be equivalent in type and size, provide conservation outcomes that would not be obtained without them (additionality), and be lasting (permanence). To monitor and evaluate offsets, it is necessary to determine how well these 3 principles are applied in the planning, implementation, and maintenance of offsets. Achieving measurable conservation outcomes from offsets is a long-term endeavor that requires sustained management support, and is information intensive. Thus, offsets require ongoing monitoring and evaluation as well as adaptive management.     

Spatial distribution of calcium in food, water and soil and its possible influence on rickets disease in Northern Nigeria

Since the 1990s, children of the Gbagyi tribe in Northern Nigeria have been suffering severe rickets with an incidence of up to 40% in the children's generation. The disease seems to be prevalent in an area of approximately 100 km(2) south-east of Kaduna. According to broad medical studies in that area, there is no evidence for a genetic disposition but for a nutritional cause of the disease. A lack of calcium was found in blood and was calculated to originate from diet. We therefore checked parent material, soil, maize cobs (Zea mays) and drinking water for their specific Ca contents from a region with rickets problem (study area A) and compared the results to Ca amounts in similar samples from a region where rickets is unknown among the Gbagyi population (study area B). It thereby became apparent that there are no differences in mineralogical composition of the parent material between the study areas, but that Ca contents in soil, maize cobs and drinking water are 47.6%, 26.6%, respectively, 79.1% lower in study area A compared to study area B. This result suggests that there may indeed be a nutritionally and/or environmentally influence on rickets disease. Nevertheless, further research on this topic is required.     

Cadmium and lead toxicity and bioaccumulation in Microcystis aeruginosa

The growth of human population leads to intensification of agriculture and promotes, through eutrophication, development of cyanobacteria. One of the most widespread and bloom-forming species in freshwater is toxic Microcystis aeruginosa （M. aeruginosa）. Combustion of fossil fuels and metallurgical processes are the main sources of heavy metals contamination in surface water including cadmium （Cd） and lead （Pb）. The following study was conducted in order to determine the effect of 1- 20 mg. L-1 of Cd and Pb on photochemistry （using flow cytometry） and growth （based on chlorophyll concentra- tion） ofM. aeruginosa as well as to estimate levels of metal bioaccumulation. We have found that 1-10mg.L-1 of Cd and 1-5 rag. L1 of Pb induced continuous enhancement of chlorophyll fluorescence during 24 h of incubation. No significant degradation of chlorophyll was observed in these samples. At higher concentrations of 20 mg. L-1 of Cd and 10-20 mg.L-1 of Pb chlorophyll level significantly decreased and its fluorescence was quenched. M. aeruginosa demonstrated high capability of Cd and Pb bioaccumulation, proportionally to initial metal concentration. In samples with initial concentration of 20 mg. L-1 of Cd and Pb bioaccumulation of 87.3% and 90.1% was observed, respectively. Our study demonstrates that M. aeruginosa can potentially survive in highly metals polluted environments, be a primary source of toxic metals in the food chain and consequently contribute to enhanced toxicity of heavy metals to living organisms including human.     

Frequent colony fusions provide opportunities for helpers to become reproductives in the termite Zootermopsis nevadensis

In many termite taxa, colonies occupying the same nesting resource can meet, interact, and merge with unrelated conspecific neighbors. Because proto-termite ancestors likely also co-inhabited resources and experienced interactions with neighboring conspecific families, extant species that form fused colony units may offer fundamental clues to explaining the origins of eusociality in Isoptera, particularly if both original families retain the potential for reproduction. We allowed entire colonies of Zootermopsis nevadensis (Archotermopsidae) to interact, merge, and develop in the lab, then used genetic markers to determine the family of origin of reproductives, soldiers, and helpers. Persisting and new members of all castes arose from both original colonies and in some cases were hybrids of the two original lineages. We also measured the frequency of mixed-family colonies in natural settings. Ten out of 30 field sampled colonies contained mixed families, demonstrating that interactions and fusions are common in nature. We discuss the implications of our findings as a model system for understanding the evolution of eusociality in termites, highlighting the importance of ecological circumstances impacting direct, indirect, and colony-level fitness.     

Responses of the flea beetles Phyllotreta nemorum and P. cruciferae to metabolically engineered Arabidopsis thaliana with an altered glucosinolate profile

Summary. Insects feeding on Cruciferae recognize their host plants at least partially by means of specific responses to glucosinolates. However, the effects of variations in glucosinolate levels on the acceptability of plants for specialized insects are not well understood. A survey of the literature demonstrated positive, no, as well as negative correlations between plant acceptability and glucosinolate levels. The present study took advantage of the presence of transgenic Arabidopsis thaliana plants with increased glucosinolate levels. Transgenic A. thaliana contain the CYP79A1 gene from Sorghum bicolor. This gene encodes an enzyme which converts L-tyrosine into p-hydroxyphenylacetaldoxime in the biosynthesis of cyanogenic glycosides in S. bicolor. In transgenic A. thaliana plants, endogenous enzymes convert p-hydroxyphenylacetaldoxime into p-hydroxybenzylglucosinolate (sinalbin), which is not found naturally in this plant. The introduction of CYP79A1 resulted in a four-fold increase in total glucosinolate levels in transgenic A. thaliana plants. Although these changes in glucosinolate levels were rather dramatic, they did not have any effects on the acceptability of A. thaliana for the two flea beetle species, Phyllotreta nemorum and P. cruciferae. The flea beetles did not discriminate between transgenic and wildtype plants. Furthermore, they did not discriminate between leaf discs of wildtype plants where different concentrations of p-hydroxybenzylglucosinolate had been applied topically on the leaf surface. Feeding in P. nemorum was stimulated by extremely high levels of allylglucosinolate while this compound had no effect on P. cruciferae. It is concluded that the effect of glucosinolates on adapted insects depends on the chemical or physical environment in which the glucosinolates are found.     

Bleiverunreinigung von trinkwasser durch leitungssysteme in Berlin

There are many acute and chronic adverse effects of lead on human beings. This is especially true for infants and children. In Germany, the intake of lead through drinking water is commonly due to metal corrosion of the user’s plumbing. In the last years and decades, many lead pipes in Germany were replaced by pipes made of alternative materials. The aim of this study was to assess the present state of drinking water contamination and the resulting lead exposure in infants, the most sensitive population group. For this purpose, mothers of newborn babies were offered a free examination of their drinking water. After a written declaration of consent had been received, two composite samples collected during the day were obtained from the families. The samples were analyzed for their lead concentration using atomic absorption spectrometry. A total of 2109 samples from house holds in the area of Berlin, Germany were collected. From the first composite samples 5.6% and 7.0% of the second composite samples demonstrated lead concentrations higher than 0.01 mg/l (recommended limit of the WHO). 0.95% of the first composite samples and 1.3% of the second composite samples had concentrations above the limit of the German drinking water regulation (0.04 mg/l). The highest measured lead concentrations is the first and second composite samples were 0.19 and 0.13 mg/l, respectively. By region, the suburbs of Charlottenburg, Neukölln, Schöneberg, Wilmersdorf and Zehlendorf were particularly severley affected with more than 10% and their samples being elevated above 0.01 mg/l.