Strength of evidence for density dependence in abundance time series of 1198 species

Population limitation is a fundamental tenet of ecology, but the relative roles of exogenous and endogenous mechanisms remain unquantified for most species. Here we used multi-model inference (MMI), a form of model averaging, based on information theory (Akaike's Information Criterion) to evaluate the relative strength of evidence for density-dependent and density-independent population dynamical models in long-term abundance time series of 1198 species. We also compared the MMI results to more classic methods for detecting density dependence: Neyman-Pearson hypothesis-testing and best-model selection using the Bayesian Information Criterion or cross-validation. Using MMI on our large database, we show that density dependence is a pervasive feature of population dynamics (median MMI support for density dependence = 74.7-92.2%), and that this holds across widely different taxa. The weight of evidence for density dependence varied among species but increased consistently, with the number of generations monitored. Best-model selection methods yielded similar results to MMI (a density-dependent model was favored in 66.2-93.9% of species time series), while the hypothesis-testing methods detected density dependence less frequently (32.6-49.8%). There were no obvious differences in the prevalence of density dependence across major taxonomic groups under any of the statistical methods used. These results underscore the value of using multiple modes of analysis to quantify the relative empirical support for a set of working hypotheses that encompass a range of realistic population dynamical behaviors.     

Surface-mediated formation of PBDD/Fs from the high-temperature oxidation of 2-bromophenol on a CuO/silica surface

As a model brominated hydrocarbon that may form brominated dioxins, we studied the surface-mediated, oxidative thermal degradation of 2-bromophenol on a supported copper oxide catalyst in a 1 mm i.d., fused silica flow reactor at a constant concentration of 90 ppm over a temperature range from 250 to 550 degrees C. Observed products included: dibenzo-p-dioxin (DD), 1-monobromodibenzo-p-dioxin (1-MBDD), dibromodibenzo-p-dioxin (DBDD), tribromodibenzo-p-dioxin (TrBDD), 4-monobromodibenzofuran (4-MBDF), 2,4,6-tribromophenol, 2,4- and 2,6-dibromophenol, and polybrominated benzenes. The results are compared and contrasted with previous work on surface catalyzed oxidative thermal degradation of 2-chlorophenol as well as our own work with the surface-catalyzed pyrolytic thermal degradation of 2-bromophenol. Typically 20 to 200x higher yields of PBDDs are observed for 2-bromophenol than for the analogous PCDDs for 2-chlorophenol. However the anticipated PBDF, 4,6-DBDF, was not observed and 4-MBDF was observed at very low yields. Surprisingly, the maximum yields of PBDDs were observed at higher temperatures than under pyrolytic conditions. This is attributed to regeneration of the catalytic surface due to the presence of oxygen. Higher yields of polybrominated phenols and polybrominated benzenes were also observed than for the analogous chlorinated phenols and benzenes from the oxidation of 2-chlorophenol. This can be attributed to the ease of bromination over chlorination based on the higher abundance of bromine atoms present for 2-bromophenol than chlorine atoms present for 2-chlorophenol.     

On inferring population trends of mobile waterbirds from aerial transect surveys in variable environments

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Monitoring waterbird populations in Australia is challenging for reasons of counting logistics, and because population aggregation and dispersion can shift...