Comparison and ranking of different modelling techniques for prediction of site index in Mediterranean mountain forests

Forestry science has a long tradition of studying the relationship between stand productivity and abiotic and biotic site characteristics, such as climate, topography, soil and vegetation. Many of the early site quality modelling studies related site index to environmental variables using basic statistical methods such as linear regression. Because most ecological variables show a typical non-linear course and a non-constant variance distribution, a large fraction of the variation remained unexplained by these linear models. More recently, the development of more advanced non-parametric and machine learning methods provided opportunities to overcome these limitations. Nevertheless, these methods also have drawbacks. Due to their increasing complexity they are not only more difficult to implement and interpret, but also more vulnerable to overfitting. Especially in a context of regionalisation, this may prove to be problematic. Although many non-parametric and machine learning methods are increasingly used in applications related to forest site quality assessment, their predictive performance has only been assessed for a limited number of methods and ecosystems.In this study, five different modelling techniques are compared and evaluated, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), classification and regression trees (CART), boosted regression trees (BRT), generalized additive models (GAM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). Each method is used to model site index of homogeneous stands of three important tree species of the Taurus Mountains (Turkey): Pinus brutia, Pinus nigra and Cedrus libani. Site index is related to soil, vegetation and topographical variables, which are available for 167 sample plots covering all important environmental gradients in the research area. The five techniques are compared in a multi-criteria decision analysis in which different model performance measures, ecological interpretability and user-friendliness are considered as criteria.When combining these criteria, in most cases GAM is found to outperform all other techniques for modelling site index for the three species. BRT is a good alternative in case the ecological interpretability of the technique is of higher importance. When user-friendliness is more important MLR and CART are the preferred alternatives. Despite its good predictive performance, ANN is penalized for its complex, non-transparent models and big training effort.     

Nonlinear effects of food aggregation on interference competition in mallards

Previous studies of interference competition have shown an asymmetric effect on intake rate of foragers on clumped resources, with only subordinate individuals suffering. However, the food distributions in these studies were uniform or highly clumped, whereas in many field situations, food aggregation is intermediate. Here we investigated whether food distribution (i.e., uniform, slightly clumped, and highly clumped) affects the behavioral response of mallards foraging alone or competing with another. Although the amount of food was the same in all distributions, the mallards reached higher intake rates, visited fewer patches, and showed longer average feeding times in the highly clumped distribution. Competing mallards had lower intake rates on the slightly clumped than on the uniform or highly clumped food distributions. Subordinates generally visited more patches and had shorter feeding times per patch, but their intake rates were not significantly lower than those of dominants. Therefore, we propose that subordinates do not necessarily suffer from interference competition in terms of intake rate, but do suffer higher search costs. In addition, although dominants had significantly higher average feeding times on the best quality patches of the highly clumped food distribution, such an effect was not found in the slightly clumped distribution. These findings indicate that in environments where food is aggregated to a lesser extent, monopolization is not the best strategy for dominants. Our results suggest that interference experiments should use food distributions that resemble the natural situation animals are faced with in the field.     

Laying-order effects on sperm numbers and on paternity: comparing three passerine birds with different life histories

In birds, the number of sperm trapped between the perivitelline membranes around the ovum is an estimate of sperm numbers present at the time and place of fertilisation in the female reproductive tract. Sperm numbers may vary among species and between eggs in a clutch and can provide information about sperm utilisation and mechanisms of sperm competition. Here, we describe patterns of variation in sperm numbers through the egg-laying sequence in three passerines in which extra-pair paternity is common, but copulation behaviour differs. Sperm numbers showed no systematic change across the laying sequence in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), but decreased significantly with laying order in bluethroat (Luscinia svecica) and tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) clutches. This is consistent with observations that blue tits regularly copulate throughout the laying sequence, while bluethroats stop mate guarding and tree swallows reduce their copulation frequency once the first egg is laid. Nevertheless, cases of a sudden increase in sperm numbers in clutches of bluethroats and tree swallows suggest that successful inseminations also occurred after laying started. In blue tits and bluethroats, sperm numbers were not higher on extra-pair sired eggs than on eggs sired by the social male, suggesting that extra-pair copulations are not timed to the period of peak fertility for each egg. More extra-pair offspring originated from eggs laid early in the sequence in blue tits, while there was no systematic bias in bluethroats. Our results suggest that copulations during the laying sequence are predominantly performed by within-pair males in our study species.     

Temperature, Salinity, and Fluorescence in Southern North Sea: High-Resolution Data Sampled from a Ferry

/ In 1991 and 1992, temperature, salinity, and fluorescence were measured by automatic continuous registration using instrumentation on a ferry crossing the southern North Sea daily along a transect between Zeebrugge, Belgium, and Hull, United Kingdom. The temperature ranged between 4 and 21 degrees C off the Belgian coast and between 6 and 17 degrees C in the middle of the transect. Salinity varied between 34 and 35.5 PSU in the offshore part of the transect, but showed much larger variation along the Belgian and UK estuarine coasts. Fluorescence, which was used as a measure of phytoplankton biomass, was highest at the continental coast and lowest near the English coast. Spring blooms of phytoplankton were found along the continental coast and in the channel-influenced water; in 1991 the blooms were denser than in 1992. Some summer blooms were also recorded. Water masses could be distinguished on the basis of salinity and fluorescence patterns. The general patterns in the data are compared with the literature and discussed in relation to river discharge, light penetration, and wind speed and direction. Finally, the value of automatic and frequent measurements of fluorescence for monitoring phytoplankton is compared with less frequent observations at selected stations. It is concluded that accurate information about phytoplankton biomass can only be established from the high-frequency data. KEY WORDS: Monitoring; Sampling; North Sea; Ferry; Fluorescence; Salinity; Temperature     

Particulate matter in California: part 2--Spatial, temporal, and compositional patterns of PM2.5, PM10-2.5, and PM10

Geographic and temporal variations in the concentration and composition of particulate matter (PM) provide important insights into particle sources, atmospheric processes that influence particle formation, and PM management strategies. In the nonurban areas of California, annual-average PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations range from 3 to 10 microg/m3 and from 5 to 18 microg/m3, respectively. In the urban areas of California, annual-averages for PM2.5 range from 7 to 30 microg/m3, with observed 24-hr peaks reaching levels as high as 160 microg/m3. Within each air basin, exceedances are a mixture of isolated events as well as periods of elevated PM2.5 concentrations that are more prolonged and regional in nature. PM2.5 concentrations are generally highest during the winter months. The exception is the South Coast Air Basin, where fairly high values occur throughout the year. Annual-average PM2.5 mass, as well as the concentrations of major components, declined from 1988 to 2000. The declines are especially pronounced for the sulfate (SO4(2-)) and nitrate (NO3-) components of PM2.5 and PM10) and correlate with reductions in ambient levels of oxides of sulfur (SOx) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx). Annual averages for PM10-2.5 and PM10 exhibited similar downwind trends from 1994 to 1999, with a slightly less pronounced decrease in the coarse fraction.     

Environmental impact assessment in flanders,belgium: An evaluation of the administrative procedure

Two years of experience with EIA in Flanders (northern Belgium) was evaluated in order to gain perspective on the effectiveness of the administrative procedure. The four essential characteristics of the EIA procedure that were evaluated are: completeness, open and public character, objectivity, and verifiability. Representatives of all parties involved in the EIA procedure were interviewed. The result of the evaluation is a list of major problems with EIA. Recommendations for a more efficient procedure are suggested at a time when a proposal for a new, comprehensive, and permanent EIA decree is being discussed. The evaluation of the administrative procedure for EIA in Flanders shows that several vital characteristics of the EIA procedure are lacking. This reduces the obligatory and open nature of the process, resulting in insufficient guarantees that the environment receives the altention it deserves during the decision-making process.     

Direct calorimetry of free-moving eels with manipulated thyroid status

In birds and mammals, the thyroid gland secretes the iodothyronine hormones of which tetraiodothyronine (T4) is less active than triiodothyronine (T3). The action of T3 and T4 is calorigenic and is involved in the control of metabolic rate. Across all vertebrates, thyroid hormones also play a major role in differentiation, development and growth. Although the fish thyroidal system has been researched extensively, its role in thermogenesis is unclear. In this study, we measured overall heat production to an accuracy of 0.1 mW by direct calorimetry in a free-moving European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) with different thyroid status. Hyperthyroidism was induced by injection of T3 and T4, and hypothyroidism was induced with phenylthiourea. The results show for the first time at the organismal level, using direct calorimetry, that neither overall heat production nor overall oxygen consumption in eels is affected by hyperthyroidism. Therefore, we conclude that the thermogenic metabolism-stimulating effect of thyroid hormones (TH) is not present with a cold-blooded fish species like the European eel. This supports the concept that TH does not stimulate thermogenesis in poikilothermic species.     

An examination of shared leadership configurations and their effectiveness in teams

A key challenge in the shared leadership literature has been a limited understanding of how multiple leadership activities are shared across team members and roles. We address this issue by conceptualizing and operationalizing shared leadership using both its content (i.e., what leadership roles are shared) and distribution (i.e., how leadership is shared across members and roles). In an exploratory study comprised of 129 work teams, we use latent profile analysis (LPA) to identify multiple shared leadership configurations that vary in the extent of sharing. Our second study of 103 MBA teams supports these findings and further (a) considers what shared leadership configurations have the greatest influence on team effectiveness, (b) examines the mediating role of teamwork processes, and (c) investigates the moderating role of temporal dispersion. We advance current research by demonstrating that shared leadership typically manifests in collective (i.e., members share all leadership roles) and distributed configurations (i.e., members hold one leadership role while other members hold other leadership roles), which has implications for team processes and effectiveness. Specifically, we show that collective configurations have higher team effectiveness (compared to distributed configurations) owing to improved teamwork processes and observe that these effects are more pronounced when temporal dispersion is high.     

Nocturnal accumulation of CO2 underneath a tropical forest canopy along a topographical gradient

Flux measurements of carbon dioxide and water vapor above tropical rain forests are often difficult to interpret because the terrain is usually complex. This complexity induces heterogeneity in the surface but also affects lateral movement of carbon dioxide (CO2) not readily detected by the eddy covariance systems. This study describes such variability using measurements of CO2 along vertical profiles and along a toposequence in a tropical rain forest near Manaus, Brazil. Seasonal and diurnal variation was recorded, with atmospheric CO2 concentration maxima around dawn, generally higher CO2 build-up in the dry season and stronger daytime CO2 drawdown in the wet season. This variation was reflected all along the toposequence, but the slope and valley bottom accumulated clearly more CO2 than the plateaus, depending on atmospheric stability. Particularly during stable nights, accumulation was along lines of equal altitude, suggesting that large amounts of CO2 are stored in the valleys of the landscape. Flushing of this store only occurs during mid-morning, when stored CO2 may well be partly transported back to the plateaus. It is clear that, for proper interpretation of tower fluxes in such complex and actively respiring terrain, the horizontal variability of storage needs to be taken into account not only during the night but also during the mornings.