Testing the capability of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to forecast PM10 levels in the Netherlands

Since particulate matter has a direct and adverse impact on public health, a good air quality forecast is important. Several European countries presently use statistical forecasting models, which have their limitations, especially for PM10. An alternative approach is to use a chemistry transport model. Here, the ability of the chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS to forecast PM10 concentrations in the Netherlands was investigated. LOTOS-EUROS models several PM10 components individually. For sulphate, nitrate and ammonium aerosol the evaluation against observations shows that the modelled annual mean concentrations are within 20% of the measured concentration and that the temporal correlation is reasonably good (R > 0.6). For sea salt the model tended to overestimate the measured concentrations. For elemental carbon the correspondence with black smoke observations was reasonable. However, total PM10 is seriously underestimated, due to unmodelled components (secondary organic aerosols, mineral dust) and missing sources. Therefore, a simple bias correction for four seasons was derived based on the years 2004–2006. The model was compared with the Dutch operational statistical model PROPART and ground-level observations. With bias correction, LOTOS-EUROS performed better than PROPART regarding the timing of events. The major flaw of LOTOS-EUROS was that high values (>50 μg m^?3) were still underestimated. Another advantage of LOTOS-EUROS over the statistical model was the more detailed information in space and time, which facilitates communication of the forecast to the general public.     

Carbonyl atmospheric reaction products of aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air

To convert gaseous carbonyls to oximes during sampling, an XAD-4 resin denuder system pre-coated with O-(2,3,4,5,6-pentafluorobenzyl)hydroxylamine and followed by analysis with methane positive chemical ionization gas chromatography/mass spectrometry was used to measure carbonyls in ambient air samples in Riverside, CA. In conjunction with similar analyses of environmental chamber OH radical-initiated reactions of o- and p-xylene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, ethylbenzene, 4-hydroxy-2-butanone and 1,4-butanediol, we identified benzaldehyde, o-, m- and p-tolualdehyde and acetophenone and the dicarbonyls glyoxal, methylglyoxal, biacetyl, ethylglyoxal, 1,4-butenedial, 3-hexene-2,5-dione, 3-oxo-butanal, 1,4-butanedial and malonaldehyde in the ambient air samples. As discussed, these carbonyls and dicarbonyls can be formed from the OH radical-initiated reactions of aromatic hydrocarbons and other volatile organic compounds emitted into the atmosphere, and we conclude that in situ atmospheric formation is a major source of these carbonyls in our Riverside, CA, ambient air samples.     

Quantitative chemical composition and characteristics of aerosols over western India: One-year record of temporal variability

One-year quantitative chemical data set consisting of water-soluble constituents (NH₄⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO₃^?, SO₄^2? and HCO₃^?), crustal and trace elements (Al, Fe, Ca, Mg, K, Mn, Zn, Pb) and carbonaceous species (OC, EC) in ambient aerosols, collected over an urban site located in a high-dust semi-arid region of western India, reveals excellent linear relationship (r² = 0.92; slope = 0.96 ± 0.05) between gravimetrically assessed TSP (total suspended particulates) and chemically analyzed aerosol mass. The TSP abundance ranging from 60 to 250 μg m^?3, over a period of 12 months (January–December), is dominated by mineral dust (～70%); whereas contribution from sea-salts, anthropogenic and carbonaceous species exhibits significant temporal variability depending upon the wind regimes. The mineral dust is enriched in Ca, Mg and Fe with respect to upper continental crust (UCC); whereas Zn and Pb exhibit a characteristic anthropogenic source and high enrichment factors. The carbonaceous species show significant seasonality; with dominance of OC (range: 4.6–28 μg m^?3; average: 12.8 μg m^?3; SD: 6.8) and minor contribution from EC (range: 0.3–4.4 μg m^?3; average: 2.4 μg m^?3; SD: 1.4). The observed concentrations are significantly lower than those reported for the metro cities in South Asia but the OC/EC ratios (range: 4.3–35; average: 8.3; SD: 5.7) are significantly higher than the characteristic ratio (～2–4) reported for the urban atmosphere. Such quantitative chemical characterization of aerosols is essential in assessing their role in atmospheric chemistry and climate change. This study could also be useful in understanding the physical and optical aerosol properties documented from the same site and thus, in validating regional climate models.     

Meteorological variability in NO2 and PM10 concentrations in the Netherlands and its relation with EU limit values

The extent of the exceedance of the EU limit values for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations within the Netherlands is expected to decrease significantly, in the coming years. Whether limit values will actually be exceeded, in the next decade, depends not only on European, national and local policies, but also on the effects of inevitable interannual meteorological fluctuations. An analysis of model calculations and measurements yields variations (1 sigma) in the annual average concentration of about 5% for NO₂ and 9% for PM₁₀, due to meteorological fluctuations. These deviations from long-term average concentrations affect assessments of future levels, set against limit values. For instance, an NO₂ concentration of 39 μg m^?3, estimated for a given year with long-term average meteorology, indicates that it is likely (chance >66%) that the limit value of 40 μg m^?3 will not be exceeded in that particular year. At the same time, the estimation also indicates, for example, that this situation is unlikely (change <33%) to continue for three years in a row. However, with an estimated concentration of 38 μg m^?3, it is likely that the limit value will not be exceeded for three years in a row. The limit value for the daily average PM₁₀ concentration is equivalent to an annual average of about 32 μg m^?3. This threshold is unlikely to be exceeded for three years in a row, when an annual average concentration of 29 μg m^?3 is estimated. Interannual variations in concentrations of NO₂ and PM₁₀ are linked to large-scale meteorological fluctuations. Therefore, similar results can be expected for other European countries.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental     

Defining and Evaluating the Umbrella Species Concept for Conserving and Restoring Landscape Connectivity

Conserving or restoring landscape connectivity between patches of breeding habitat is a common strategy to protect threatened species from habitat fragmentation. By managing connectivity for some species, usually charismatic vertebrates, it is often assumed that these species will serve as conservation umbrellas for other species. We tested this assumption by developing a quantitative method to measure overlap in dispersal habitat of 3 threatened species—a bird (the umbrella), a butterfly, and a frog—inhabiting the same fragmented landscape. Dispersal habitat was determined with Circuitscape, which was parameterized with movement data collected for each species. Despite differences in natural history and breeding habitat, we found substantial overlap in the spatial distributions of areas important for dispersal of this suite of taxa. However, the intuitive umbrella species (the bird) did not have the highest overlap with other species in terms of the areas that supported connectivity. Nevertheless, we contend that when there are no irreconcilable differences between the dispersal habitats of species that cohabitate on the landscape, managing for umbrella species can help conserve or restore connectivity simultaneously for multiple threatened species with different habitat requirements. Definición y Evaluación del Concepto de Especie Paraguas para Conservar y Restaurar la Conectividad de Paisajes