Developing new approaches and strategies to promote sustainability and environmental integration in the Mediterranean region

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -     

NELUP: Some Reflections on Undertaking and Reporting InterdisciplinaryRiver Catchment Modelling

NELUP was a five-year academic research project into interdisciplinary river catchment modelling. The experience of staff involved offers useful insights into the intellectual and practical problems associated with interdisciplinary catchment management research and the dissemination and acceptance of results. In particular, it is suggested that: entrenched academic territories, derived from disciplinary and data differences, make managing an interdisciplinary team of researchers a non-trivial task; data errors, model complexity and model generality masked by a seductively sophisticated-looking DSS risk an illusion of technique; and that acceptance of decision support is hindered by practitionersand policy makers' suspicion of potential automated decision making by default.     

Testis size variation in the greenfinch Carduelis chloris : relevance for some recent models of sexual selection

Interspecific evidence that testis size responds to selection caused by sperm competition has been obtained from many taxa. However, little is known about the sources of intraspecific variation in testis size, although such variation may have functional significance. Variation in testis size and asymmetry was studied within and between eight geographically separated (and genetically differentiated) populations of greenfinches Carduelis chloris. The relationships between testis size and plumage brightness (degree of yellowness) and the prevalence of haematozoan infections were also investigated in three of these populations, as they related to the predictions of the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis, and Møller's hypothesis relating directional testis asymmetry to phenotypic quality. There were large differences between populations in testis size, with males from northern populations having larger testes than those from southern populations. Within populations, large testes were associated with larger body size and greater age. When the influence of these factors was removed statistically, males with large testes were more likely to be infected with haematozoan parasites, and had brighter yellow plumage. No evidence was found that directional asymmetry in testis size was related to either of these measures of phenotypic quality. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that males with large testes, while signalling higher phenotypic quality as revealed by increased plumage brightness, also pay a cost in terms of reduced immunocompetence, revealed by the increased probability of infection in these males. That these patterns were similar in three different populations adds further strength to these conclusions. Our results suggest that studying the sources of variation in testis size among individuals can reveal interesting processes in sexual selection.     

Mechanisms of lead, copper, and zinc retention by phosphate rock

The solid-liquid interface reaction between phosphate rock (PR) and metals (Pb, Cu, and Zn) was studied. Phosphate rock has the highest affinity for Pb, followed by Cu and Zn, with sorption capacities of 138, 114, and 83.2 mmol/kg PR, respectively. In the Pb-Cu-Zn ternary system, competitive metal sorption occurred with sorption capacity reduction of 15.2%, 48.3%, and 75.6% for Pb, Cu, and Zn, respectively compared to the mono-metal systems. A fractional factorial design showed the interfering effect in the order of Pb>Cu>Zn. Desorption of Cu and Zn was sensitive to pH change, increasing with pH decline, whereas Pb desorption was decreased with a strongly acidic TCLP extracting solution (pH = 2.93). The greatest stability of Pb retention by PR can be attributed to the formation of insoluble fluoropyromorphite [Pb(10)(PO(4))(6)F(2)], which was primarily responsible for Pb immobilization (up to 78.3%), with less contribution from the surface adsorption or complexation (21.7%), compared to 74.5% for Cu and 95.7% for Zn. Solution pH reduction during metal retention and flow calorimetry analysis both supported the hypothesis of retention of Pb, Cu, and Zn by surface adsorption or complexation. Flow calorimetry indicated that Pb and Cu adsorption onto PR was exothermic, while Zn sorption was endothermic. Our research demonstrated that PR can effectively remove Pb from solutions, even in the presence of other heavy metals (e.g. Cu, Zn).     

Evaluating unintended consequences of intentional species introductions and eradications for improved conservation management

Increasingly intensive strategies to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function are being deployed in response to global anthropogenic threats, including intentionally introducing and eradicating species via assisted migration, rewilding, biological control, invasive species eradications, and gene drives. These actions are highly contentious because of their potential for unintended consequences. We conducted a global literature review of these conservation actions to quantify how often unintended outcomes occur and to elucidate their underlying causes. To evaluate conservation outcomes, we developed a community assessment framework for systematically mapping the range of possible interaction types for 111 case studies. Applying this tool, we quantified the number of interaction types considered in each study and documented the nature and strength of intended and unintended outcomes. Intended outcomes were reported in 51% of cases, a combination of intended outcomes and unintended outcomes in 26%, and strictly unintended outcomes in 10%. Hence, unintended outcomes were reported in 36% of all cases evaluated. In evaluating overall conservations outcomes (weighing intended vs. unintended effects), some unintended effects were fairly innocuous relative to the conservation objective, whereas others resulted in serious unintended consequences in recipient communities. Studies that assessed a greater number of community interactions with the target species reported unintended outcomes more often, suggesting that unintended consequences may be underreported due to insufficient vetting. Most reported unintended outcomes arose from direct effects (68%) or simple density-mediated or indirect effects (25%) linked to the target species. Only a few documented cases arose from more complex interaction pathways (7%). Therefore, most unintended outcomes involved simple interactions that could be predicted and mitigated through more formal vetting. Our community assessment framework provides a tool for screening future conservation actions by mapping the recipient community interaction web to identify and mitigate unintended outcomes from intentional species introductions and eradications for conservation.     

COVID-19 and beliefs about tobacco use: an online cross-sectional study in Iran

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - There is mixed evidence surrounding the relationship between tobacco use and COVID-19 infection/progression. The current study investigates beliefs...     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Non-invasive fetal genotyping for maternal alleles with droplet digital PCR: A comparative study of analytical approaches

Objectives

To develop a flexible droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) workflow to perform non-invasive prenatal diagnosis via relative mutation dosage (RMD) for maternal pathogenic variants with a range of inheritance patterns, and to compare the accuracy of multiple analytical approaches.

Methods

Cell free DNA (cfDNA) was tested from 124 archived maternal plasma samples: 88 cases for sickle cell disease and 36 for rare Mendelian conditions. Three analytical methods were compared: sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), Bayesian and z-score analyses.

Results

The SPRT, Bayesian and z-score analyses performed similarly well with correct prediction rates of 96%, 97% and 98%, respectively. However, there were high rates of inconclusive results for each cohort, particularly for z-score analysis which was 31% overall. Two samples were incorrectly classified by all three analytical methods; a false negative result predicted for a fetus affected with sickle cell disease and a false positive result predicting the presence of an X-linked IDS variant in an unaffected fetus.

Conclusions

ddPCR can be applied to RMD for diverse conditions and inheritance patterns, but all methods carry a small risk of erroneous results. Further evaluation is required both to reduce the rate of inconclusive results and explore discordant results in more detail.     

Is there a role for fetal interventions in gastroschisis management? – An updated comprehensive review

We conducted a comprehensive evidence-based review on the epidemiology and current standard of care of gastroschisis management as well as the pathophysiology, rationale and feasibility of fetal therapy as a viable alternative. Gastroschisis is a periumbilical abdominal wall defect characterized by abdominal viscera herniation in utero. It affects 4 in 10 000 live births, but the prevalence has steadily increased in recent years. Gastroschisis is typically diagnosed on routine second-trimester ultrasound. The overall prognosis is favorable, but complex gastroschisis, which accounts for about 10% to 15% of cases, is associated with a higher mortality, significant disease burden and higher healthcare costs due to long- and short-term complications. The current standard of care has yet to be established but generally involves continued fetal surveillance and multidisciplinary perinatal care. Postnatal surgical repair is achieved with primary closure, staged silo closure or sutureless repair. Experimental animal studies have demonstrated the feasibility of in utero closure, antiinflammatory therapy and prenatal regenerative therapy. However, reports of early preterm delivery and amnioinfusion trials have failed to show any benefit in humans. Further experimental studies and human trials are necessary to demonstrate the potential benefit of fetal therapy in gastroschisis.     

Kinetic parameter estimation for decomposition of organic peroxides by means of DSC measurements

The thermal stability of organic peroxides (cumene hydroperoxide 80 wt% and dicumyl peroxide) was studied by means of calorimetric measurement (DSC, TA Q1000) in an isotherm mode and a dynamic mode. Analysis of power profiles released in the isothermal mode was combined with the analysis of the decomposed compounds by a gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer (GC/MS) to determine the reaction mechanisms corresponding to each of the two reactions. In this work, a methodology for estimating kinetic parameters was based on the comparison of the power profile (dynamic mode) given by the model to that obtained experimentally by changing the parameters values. Parameter estimation is achieved using the mixed estimation method where a genetic algorithm is combined with a locally convergent method.