A dynamic host selection model for mountain pine beetle,Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins

The link between individual habitat selection decisions (i.e., mechanism) and the resulting population distributions of dispersing organisms (i.e., outcome) has been little-studied in behavioural ecology. Here we consider density-dependent habitat (i.e., host) selection for an energy- and time-limited forager: the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We present a dynamic state variable model of individual beetle host selection behaviour, based on an individual’s energy state. Field data are incorporated into model parameterization which allows us to determine the effects of host availability (with respect to host size, quality, and vigour) on individuals’ decisions. Beetles choose larger trees with thicker phloem across a larger proportion of the state-space than smaller trees with thinner phloem, but accept lower quality trees more readily at low energy- and time-states. In addition, beetles make habitat selection decisions based on host availability, conspecific attack densities, and beetle distributions within a forest stand. This model provides a framework for the development of a spatial game model to examine the implications of these results for attack dynamics of beetle populations.     

Foraging in a tidally structured environment by Red Knots (Calidris canutus): ideal, but not free

Besides the "normal" challenge of obtaining adequate intake rates in a patchy and dangerous world, shorebirds foraging in intertidal habitats face additional environmental hurdles. The tide forces them to commute between a roosting site and feeding grounds, twice a day. Moreover, because intertidal food patches are not all available at the same time, shorebirds should follow itineraries along the best patches available at a given time. Finally, shorebirds need additional energy stores in order to survive unpredictable periods of bad weather, during which food patches are covered by extreme tides. In order to model such tide-specific decisions, we applied stochastic dynamic programming in a spatially explicit context. Two assumptions were varied, leading to four models. First, birds had either perfect (ideal) or no (non-ideal) information about the intake rate at each site. Second, traveling between sites was either for free or incurred time and energy costs (non-free). Predictions were generated for three aspects of foraging: area use, foraging routines, and energy stores. In general, non-ideal foragers should feed most intensely and should maintain low energy stores. If traveling for such birds is free, they should feed at a random site; otherwise, they should feed close to their roost. Ideal foragers should concentrate their feeding around low tide (especially when free) and should maintain larger energy stores (especially when non-free). If traveling for such birds is free, they should feed at the site offering the highest intake rate; otherwise, they should trade off travel costs and intake rate. Models were parameterized for Red Knots (Calidris canutus) living in the Dutch Wadden Sea in late summer, an area for which detailed, spatially explicit data on prey densities and tidal heights are available. Observations of radio-marked knots (area use) and unmarked knots (foraging routines, energy stores) showed the closest match with the ideal/non-free model. We conclude that knots make state-dependent decisions by trading off starvation against foraging-associated risks, including predation. Presumably, knots share public information about resource quality that enables them to behave in a more or less ideal manner. We suggest that our modeling approach may be applicable in other systems where resources fluctuate in space and time.     

Ethnicity as a factor in pizza delivery crashes

A subjective assessment of patients admitted acutely to the orthopedic directorate revealed that there had been--over a short period of time--a small series of patients who had sustained fractures during the course of their employment as pizza delivery moped drivers. Consequently an observational study was performed in our district general hospital in order to investigate this further, and establish the demographic domain of the patients involved and the cost of their injuries. Our hospital has a patient catchment area of 350,000 and an emergency department that treats 95,000 patients annually. The patients in this series were described in terms of their injuries, ethnicity, and cost of injury treatment. The main findings were that pizza delivery personnel admitted acutely were male Afghans, with poor English language skills, who sustained significant fractures in moped accidents that were expensive to treat.     

Atrazine effects on in vitro maturation and in vitro fertilization in the bovine oocyte

The effect of low levels of atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) on in vitro oocyte maturation, in vitro capacitation of sperm, or in vitro fertilization of bovine oocytes and on the quality of blastocyst formation was studied. Bovine oocytes collected from abattoir ovaries were matured, fertilized, and developed to the blastocyst stage in vitro. Embryos that reached a morula or blastocyst stage were stained with Hoechst 33258 stain to determine the number of blastomeres per embryo. Three bulls whose fertilization rates were proven consistent among straws were used for this study. Atrazine was tested at concentrations of 0.01, 0.1, 1, and 10 microM in either the maturation medium, sperm capacitation medium, or the fertilization medium. Because atrazine was dissolved in ethanol, an ethanol control was used to determine any possible effects of ethanol on the in vitro process. The addition of atrazine to both the maturation and fertilization media did not result in any significant difference in fertilization rates between the controls and the treatments. In the capacitation medium, a significant difference between the controls and the atrazine levels of 0.1, 1, and 10 microM was noted for one bull. Atrazine did not affect the number of blastomeres per embryo. There was not a significant difference (p>0.05) in the number of blastomeres per embryo between the controls and the different levels of atrazine in each medium. This study indicates that low levels of atrazine do not have an effect on in vitro fertilization rates or the number of blastomeres per embryo produced in vitro.     

System theory formulation of site-specific water quality standards and protocols

Habitat variability makes site-specific considerations a necessity in the specification of water quality standards. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recognized this in its development of procedures for site-specific modification of national standards. These procedures involves translation of laboratory toxicology data into field situations where such data are often poor predictors of biotoxicity. The whole problem is poorly specified.This paper formulates a system theory approach to better specification of the problems associated with setting water quality standards. A state space model of the general environmental protection problem is presented: Find a set of diagnostic variables whose maintenance within specifiable limits (standards) is both necessary and sufficient to protect all variables of a subject ecosystem. The program for this comprises a site-specific protocol.Stages in such a protocol include (1) choice of diagnostic variables, (2) establishment of necessity and sufficiency for these variables, and (3) determination of standards through (4) toxicity testing. Problems associated with the latter include (a) spatiotemporal variability, system (b) linearity-nonlinearity, and (c) stationarity-nonstationarity, and (d) monitoring for: baseline information, impact detection, determining compliance, establishing causality and making predictions. Each of these problems is structured in terms of the state space model. Then, current procedures of the EPA site-specific methodology are reviewed, and a set of recommendations proposed for their improvement using the system theory formulation to guide further developments.     

SOIL EROSION AND SEDIMENT YIELD PREDICTION ACCURACY USING WEPP1

ABSTRACT: The objectives of this paper are to discuss expectations for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) accuracy, to review published studies related to WEPP goodness of fit, and to evaluate these in the context of expectations for WEPP's goodness of fit. WEPP model erosion predictions have been compared in numerous studies to observed values for soil loss and sediment delivery from cropland plots, forest roads, irrigated lands and small watersheds. A number of different techniques for evaluating WEPP have been used, including one recently developed where the ability of WEPP to accurately predict soil erosion can be compared to the accuracy of replicated plots to predict soil erosion. In one study involving 1,594 years of data from runoff plots, WEPP performed similarly to the Universal Soil Loss Erosion (USLE) technology, indicating that WEPP has met the criteria of results being “at least as good with respect to observed data and known relationships as those from the USLE,” particularly when the USLE technology was developed using relationships derived from that data set, and using soil erodibility values measured on those plots using data sets from the same period of record. In many cases, WEPP performed as well as could be expected, based on comparisons with the variability in replicate data sets. One major finding has been that soil erodibility values calculated using the technology in WEPP for rainfall conditions may not be suitable for furrow irrigated conditions. WEPP was found to represent the major storms that account for high percentages of soil loss quite well—a single storm application that the USLE technology is unsuitable for—and WEPP has performed well for disturbed forests and forest roads. WEPP has been able to reflect the extremes of soil loss, being quite responsive to the wide differences in cropping, tillage, and other forms of management, one of the requirements for WEPP validation. WEPP was also found to perform well on a wide range of small watersheds, an area where USLE technology cannot be used.     

THE AMERICAN INDIAN AND MISSOURI RIVER WATER DEVELOPMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The construction of three Missouri River main stem dams, Garrison, Oahe and Fort Randall, and the related reservoir taking caused social and economic changes on five Indian reservations, Fort Berthold, Cheyenne River, Standing Rock, Crow Creek and Lower Brute. The inundation of Missouri River riparian lands caused the loss of important cultural, social and economic environments. Ninety percent of the reservations timber, seventy-five percent of its wildlife and most of the fertile cropland were in the reservoir taking area. Urban and more fertile environments downstream and to the east received most of the projects benefits. The Indian minority on the five reservations received few economic and social benefits after bearing a disporportionate share of the social and economic costs of the developments. Relocation was forced upon those who had the longest historic and cultural claim to the land. The social costs to the American Indian occasioned by the Missouri River water developments illustrates two broad areas seldom considered during the decision process. First, the unique historic, cultural or religious values of minorities affected by developments. Second, the disproportionate spacial allocation of both benefits and costs. The second item includes social, economic and cultural considerations in not just a geographic framework but a cultural framework as well.