Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

Forecasting the e ects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area di erentiated (100 m 100 m) approach. REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, e ective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The e ects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the e ects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

Soil moisture determines the effectiveness of two urease inhibitors to decrease N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O emission

Among the mitigation strategies to prevent nitrogen (N) losses from ureic fertilizers, urease inhibitors (UIs) have been demonstrated to promote high N use efficiency by reducing ammonia (NH₃) volatilization. In the last few years, some field experiments have also shown its effectiveness in reducing nitrous oxide (N₂O) losses from fertilized soils under conditions of low soil moisture. An incubation experiment was carried out with the aim of assessing the main biotic mechanisms behind N₂O emissions once that the UIs N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamid (NBPT) and phenil phosphorodiamidate (PPDA) were applied with Urea (U) under different soil moisture conditions (40, 60 and 80 % water-filled pore space, WFPS). In the same study we tried to analyze to what extent soil WFPS regulates the effect of these inhibitors on N₂O emissions. The use of PPDA in our study allowed us to compare the effect of NBPT with that of another commercially available urease inhibitor, aiming to see if the results were inhibitor-specific or not. Based on the results from this experiment, a WFPS (i.e. 60 %) was chosen for a second study (i.e. mesocosm experiment) aiming to assess the efficiency of the UIs to indirectly affect N₂O emissions through influencing the pool of soil mineral N. The N₂O emissions at 40 % WFPS were almost negligible, being significantly lower from all fertilized treatments than that produced at 60 and 80 % WFPS. When compared to U alone, NBPT+U reduced the N₂O emissions at 60 % WFPS but had no effect at 80 % WFPS. The application of PPDA significantly increased the emissions with respect to U at 80 % WFPS whereas no significant effect was found at 60 %. At 80 % WFPS, denitrification was the main source of N₂O emissions for all treatments. In the mesocosm study, the application of NBPT+U was an effective strategy to reduce N₂O emissions (75 % reduction compared to U alone), due to a lower soil ammonium (NH₄ ⁺) content induced by the inhibitor. These results suggest that adequate management of the UI NBPT could provide, under certain soil conditions, an opportunity for mitigation of N₂O emissions from fertilized soils.     

Carbon mitigation potential of Indian steel industry

Steel dominates the global metal production accounting for 5 % of increase in Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Today, India is the 4th largest producer of crude steel in the world. The sector contributes around 3 % to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) but adds 6.2 % to the national greenhouse gas (GHG) load. It accounts for 28.4% of the entire industry sector emissions, which are 23.9% of the country’s total emissions. Being a developing country, India is not obliged to cut its emissions under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), but gave voluntary commitment to reduce the emission intensity of its GDP by 20–25 % from the 2005 level by 2020. This paper attempts to find out if the Indian steel sector can help the country in fulfilling this commitment. The sector reduced its CO₂ emissions per ton of steel produced by 58% from 1994 to 2007. The study generates six scenarios for future projections which show that the sector can reduce its emission intensity by 12.5 % to 63 %. But going by the conservative estimates, the sector can reduce emission intensity by 30 % to 53 %. However, actual emissions will go up significantly in every case.     

Using activated biochar for greenhouse gas mitigation and industrial water treatment

This study explored the feasibility of using residual biomass to both mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and remediate water contaminated by hydrocarbons. Using produced (process-affected) water from Canada’s oil sands operations as a case study, activated biochar (ACB) was found to have a higher affinity to organics than activated coal and removed 75 % of total organic carbon (TOC) from produced water in steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operations or 90 % of the TOC from synthetic tailings (ST) water sample. Up to 6 Tg dry biomass year^?1 would be required to treat the waters associated with the 93?×?10⁶-m³ of bitumen recovered per year. Landfilling the spent ACB and flaring any biogas produced were estimated to provide a greater GHG benefit than the combustion of the biochar + organics for heat to offset natural gas demand. Net costs for the ACB were about 13.84?$?m^?3 bitumen for SAGD operations and 1.76?$?m^?3 bitumen for mining operations. The values for mining operations justify further work to create a value chain that will integrate bioprocesses into the fossil fuel industry.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-fertilization and potential future terrestrial carbon uptake in India

There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO ₂ -fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO₂-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO₂ concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO₂-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions, modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO₂ levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited at 1975 levels of CO₂ concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption regarding CO₂-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited CO₂-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO₂ emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities.     

Endogenous market structures in non-cooperative international emissions trading

The literature on cost-effective international emissions trading (IET) assumes exogenous market structures. This paper develops a game-theoretical model along with numerical simulations for the world economy in order to analyze the equilibrium market structures of an IET scheme. Countries’ decisions regarding the exercise of market power and their initial permit endowments are made non-cooperatively, being guided by their national self-interest. The theoretical results show that both price-influencing and price-taking countries choose an optimal permit endowment in light of their damage costs. Low-damage (high-damage) countries choose more emission permits and act as permit sellers (buyers). The numerical results further suggest that an imperfectly competitive IET market with all price-influencing countries being permit buyers (sellers) has lower (higher) emissions than a perfectly competitive IET market. Finally, the IET scheme has an equilibrium market structure of imperfect competition where the high-damage European Union acts as a unique price maker. This equilibrium imperfectly competitive IET has the lowest global emissions.     

Metal accumulation in sediments and benthic invertebrates in lakes of Latvia

The concentrations of cadmium, lead, nickel and copper in waters, sediments (total metal concentrations and their speciation forms) and benthic macroinvertebrates in 11 lakes of Latvia were determined using atomic absorption spectroscopy. Metal concentrations in lake waters, sediments and biota were compared with water chemistry. Compared to total concentrations, metal speciation forms in sediments were better correlated with respective metal concentrations in invertebrates. Therefore, the evaluation of potential metal bioaccumulation should consider metal speciation. The mean concentrations of trace metals in benthic invertebrates in Latvia were much lower than in other countries, which can be explained by comparatively lower anthropogenic loads. However, local areas of anthropogenic impacts were evident.