Differences in risk perception,priorities, worry and demand for risk mitigation in transport among Norwegians in 2004 and 2008

The present study aimed to investigate differences in risk perception, the demand for risk mitigation, priorities and worry related to transport among the Norwegian public in 2004 and 2008. Age, gender, education, driver licence and number of injuries in transport were controlled for. The comparison was carried out with questionnaire surveys among representative samples of the Norwegian public in 2004 (n = 1730) and 2008 (n = 1864). The results showed that the perceived probabilities of transport accidents decreased, whereas the perceived severity of consequences increased during this period. Both samples estimated higher probabilities of accidents by private means of transport. The demand for risk mitigation and priorities related to transport safety increased significantly in the same period. The 2008 sample also reported more worry regarding accidents by private transport. Results were discussed in relation to transport safety campaigns, safety measures and significant accidents which occurred in this period.     

Association of reproductive traits with captive- versus wild-sourced birds in trade

The wildlife trade is a billion-dollar global business, involving millions of people, thousands of species, and hundreds of millions of individual organisms. Unravelling whether trade targets reproductively distinct species and whether this preference varies between captive- and wild-sourced species is a crucial question. We used a comprehensive list of all bird species traded, trade listings and records kept in compliance with the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), and a suite of avian reproductive parameters to examine whether wildlife trade is associated with particular facets of life history and to examine the association between life-history traits and captive- and wild-sourced traded volumes over time. Across all trade, CITES listing, and CITES trade, large birds were more likely to be traded and listed, but their longevity and age at maturity were not associated with CITES listing or trade. We found species across almost the full range of trait values in both captive and wild trade between 2000 and 2020. Captive trade volumes clearly associated with relatively longer lived and early-maturing species; these associations remained stable and largely unchanged over time. Trait–volume associations in wild-sourced trade were more uncertain. Only body mass had a clear association, and it varied from negative to positive over time. Although reproductive traits were important in captive-sourced trade, species-level variation dominated trade, with even congeneric species varying greatly in volume despite similar traits. The collection and incorporation of trait data into sustainability assessments of captive breeding facilities are crucial to ensure accurate quotas and guard against laundering.     

Geographic patterns of natal dispersal in barn swallows <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hirundo rustica</Emphasis> from Denmark and Spain

Dispersal is an important factor that determines the degree of gene flow and, hence, the degree of differentiation among populations. Using two long-term datasets on natal philopatry and short-distance dispersal in barn swallows Hirundo rustica from Denmark and Spain, we evaluated the fitness costs and benefits and test a number of predictions about the functional significance of dispersal. The proportion of philopatric individuals was more than six times larger in Spain than in Denmark, with a higher rate of philopatry in males than in females. Dispersal propensity decreased in both populations during the course of the study. Males from the more philopatric Spanish population lived longer when philopatric rather than dispersing while that was not the case for either sex of the less philopatric Danish population. There were large differences in dispersal propensity among cohorts and breeding sites, suggesting that sites differed in their suitability as sites for immigrants. We found no evidence consistent with the mate competition hypothesis suggesting that males in better condition or with larger condition-dependent secondary sexual characters were more likely to be philopatric. These findings suggest that there is a high degree of intraspecific variation in dispersal propensity between populations, probably relating to local differences in costs and benefits of philopatry and dispersal.     

The effectiveness of katydid (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Neoconocephalus ensiger</Emphasis>) song cessation as antipredator defence against the gleaning bat <Emphasis Type="Italic">Myotis septentrionalis</Emphasis>

Many nocturnal katydids (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) produce intense calling songs, and some bat species use these songs to detect and locate prey. One Nearctic katydid species, Neoconocephalus ensiger, ceases or pauses singing in response to bat echolocation calls. We tested the hypothesis that song cessation is an effective defence against gleaning bats (i.e., bats that take prey from surfaces). We observed Myotis septentrionalis, a sympatric bat species that uses prey-generated sounds when gleaning, attack and feed on singing N. ensiger in an outdoor flight room. These bats demonstrated a preference for the calling song of N. ensiger over a novel cricket calling song when they were broadcast from a speaker in the flight room. Bats attacked speakers broadcasting N. ensiger calling song as long as the song was continuous and aborted their attack if the sound stopped as they approached, regardless of whether a katydid was present as a physical target on the speaker. Echolocation calls were recorded during attacks and no significant differences were found between continuous and interrupted song approaches for four call parameters, suggesting that M. septentrionalis may not use echolocation to locate silent prey. Therefore, song cessation by katydids in response to ultrasound is an effective defence against gleaning bats.     

Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to a variety of assumptions that are difficult to meet or to apply to evolutionary timescales. Furthermore, such methods cannot be rigorously applied to high-gene-flow species. Here, we employ genetic parentage assignments in conjunction with demographic simulations to infer the level of immigration into a putative sink population. We use individual-based demographic models to estimate expected distributions of parent-offspring dyads under competing sink and closed-population models. By comparing the actual number of parent-offspring dyads (identified from multilocus genetic profiles) in a random sample of individuals taken from a population to expectations under these two contrasting demographic models, it is possible to estimate the rate of immigration and test hypotheses related to the role of immigration on population processes on an ecological timescale. The difference in the expected number of parent-offspring dyads between the two population models was greatest when immigration into the sink population was high, indicating that unlike traditional population genetic inference models, the highest degree of statistical power is achieved for the approach presented here when migration rates are high. We used the proposed genetic parentage approach to demonstrate that a threatened population of Marbled Murrelets (Braclhyrarmphus marmotus) appears to be supplemented by a low level of immigration (approximately 2-6% annually) from other populations.     

Air quality mapping using GIS and economic evaluation of health impact for Mumbai City,India

Mumbai, a highly populated city in India, has been selected for air quality mapping and assessment of health impact using monitored air quality data. Air quality monitoring networks in Mumbai are operated by National Environment Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB), and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). A monitoring station represents air quality at a particular location, while we need spatial variation for air quality management. Here, air quality monitored data of NEERI and BMC were spatially interpolated using various inbuilt interpolation techniques of ArcGIS. Inverse distance weighting (IDW), Kriging (spherical and Gaussian), and spline techniques have been applied for spatial interpolation for this study. The interpolated results of air pollutants sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) were compared with air quality data of MPCB in the same region. Comparison of results showed good agreement for predicted values using IDW and Kriging with observed data. Subsequently, health impact assessment of a ward was carried out based on total population of the ward and air quality monitored data within the ward. Finally, health cost within a ward was estimated on the basis of exposed population. This study helps to estimate the valuation of health damage due to air pollution.

Implications: Operating more air quality monitoring stations for measurement of air quality is highly resource intensive in terms of time and cost. The appropriate spatial interpolation techniques can be used to estimate concentration where air quality monitoring stations are not available. Further, health impact assessment for the population of the city and estimation of economic cost of health damage due to ambient air quality can help to make rational control strategies for environmental management. The total health cost for Mumbai city for the year 2012, with a population of 12.4 million, was estimated as USD8000 million.     

Local governing of climate change in Denmark: recasting citizens as consumers

This paper is concerned with the ways in which Danish municipalities seek to mitigate climate change through a range of governance strategies. Through the analysis of ten municipal climate plans using the framework of Mitchell Dean, as well as extensive ethnographic fieldwork in two municipalities, this paper explores how local climate change mitigation is shaped by particular rationalities and technologies of government, and thus seeks to illustrate how the strategies set out in the plans construe climate change mitigation from a certain perspective, thereby rendering some solutions more likely than others and recasting citizens as passive consumers who are to be guided to consume in more climate-friendly ways in the process.     

Correcting for non-response bias in contingent valuation surveys concerning environmental non-market goods: an empirical investigation using an online panel

Data collection for economic valuation by using Internet surveys and pre-recruited Internet panels can be associated with severe disadvantages. Problems concerning sample coverage and sample representativeness can be expected. Representation errors may occur since people can choose whether to be part of an Internet panel and subsequently whether they wish to participate in the survey, thereby introducing two elements of potential self-selection. These elements may be correlated with preferences, thus making the respondents a non-random and non-representative sample, ultimately biasing results. This paper analyses a sample used for an Internet contingent valuation method survey eliciting preferences for improvements in water quality of a river. We find that some variables that affect the survey participation decision also affect willingness-to-pay, consequently biasing our welfare estimates. We show how adjusting willingness-to-pay for this bias can be accomplished by using a grouped data model incorporating a correlation parameter to account for selection.     

Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience

Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Mälaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience.     

Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive adaptation of Pearson residuals, i.e. the difference between observations and posterior means, even if this approach is flawed. Here, we consider validation of state space models through one-step prediction errors, and discuss principles and practicalities arising when the model has been fitted with a tool for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations are continuous or discrete. With both simulated data, and a real data set related to geolocation of seals, we demonstrate both the potential and the limitations of the techniques. Our results fill a need for convenient methods for validating a state space model, or alternatively, rejecting it while indicating useful directions in which the model could be improved.