Employee risk perception related to offshore oil platform movements

The results presented in this paper are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey regarding perceived risk and organizational factors conducted among 179 respondents on an offshore oil-installation in the Norwegian part of the North Sea. The aims are (1) to measure perceived risk caused by platform movements, potentially hazardous circumstances, and during the conducting of work tasks; (2) to measure employee evaluations of organizational and social factors, and (3) to analyze the associations between risk perception and the organizational and social factors. Ordinary occupational accidents caused the greatest proportion of respondents who felt unsafe. Perceived risk caused by catastrophes and disasters also created insecurity. The respondents were most satisfied with the status of contingency measures, and especially with the use of personal protective equipment and availability of personal protective equipment.     

Uncertainties in Predictions of Surface Water Acidity using the MAGIC Model

In this study, we have used the MAGIC model together with data from the Birkenes catchment in Norway, at which 27 years of data (1974–2000) are available. We calibrated the MAGIC model to the five year observed average chemistry around 1990, and then used the data from the five year period around 1980 to refine the calibration. From 1990, forecasts were run for the different sets of inputs and parameters, and the sets of inputs and parameters were further refined using observations for the period 1996–2000. Through an automatic calibration routine, the model was calibrated a large number of times with different sets of input data to account for the uncertainties in the observed data using a Monte Carlo set-up. The results show that the uncertainty in the model predictions decreases as more observed data from different points in time are used in the model calibration. The results also show that when usingthe time series data in calibration, the distribution of the forecastchanged. The distribution of the predicted Acid Neutralisation Capacity (ANC) in the future is lower for the more refined model calibration. The 10 and 90 percentiles of predicted ANC in 2010 are –3 to 21 μeq L^-1 when only a five-year average is used for calibration, but are –7 to 9 μeq L^-1 when data from the three different time periods are used.     

Climate Change and Local Pollution Effects – An Integrated Approach

Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.     

The impact of prenatal diagnosis on the occurrence of chromosome abnormalities

From the public health point of view, several formal attempts have been made to measure the impact of prenatal diagnosis (PND) on the incidence of Down's Syndrome (DS), but the results have varied widely. The impact of PND (reduction in the birth rate of chromosomally abnormal neonates) is related to utilization rates but quantitative estimates of this have not been established. In a three-year (1981–1983) total population study from Queensland, Australia, we present results to measure the impact of a voluntary PND programme on the birth incidence of DS, and also other chromosomally abnormal births. Utilization rates for the PND service were 15·5 per cent in that population of mothers 35 years and over. Numbers and rates of all cases of chromosomal abnormalities are presented, subclassified by type of diagnosis–-either by PND or by clinical diagnosis after birth. For the total population, 7·3 per cent of cases of DS were detected prenatally, and 15·4 per cent of all chromosome abnormalities. (A method for measuring the impact of PND is described.) Using this in conjunction with our demographic data, we estimate that with a 15 per cent utilization rate of PND by older mothers, 14 per cent of DS births can be prevented in this age group, or a 5 per cent overall reduction can be achieved if mothers of all ages are considered. One index–-the ratio of the percentage of DS births which are preventable compared with the population utilization rates of PND–-has potential for widespread use. Queensland data for this ratio is 0·34, a figure consistent with that from other studies. Thus a 3·5 per cent drop in the overall DS birth rate may be expected for each 10 per cent increase in the utilization rates of PND for mothers of 35 years and over. A diagram is presented which may serve as a model for improved data collection and better impact estimates in the future.