LONG-TERM CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW FOLLOWING LOGGING IN WESTERN OREGON AND ASSOCIATED FISHERIES IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: The long-term effect of logging on low summer streamflow was investigated with a data set of 36 years. Hydrologic records were analyzed for the period 1953 and 1988 from Watershed (WS) 1 (clear-cut logged and burned), WS 2 (unlogged control), and WS 3 (25 percent patch-cut logged and burned) in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, western Cascade Range, Oregon. These records spanned 9–10 years before logging, and 21–25 years after logging and burning. Streamfiows in August were the lowest of any month, and were unaffected by occasional heavy rain that occurred at the beginning of summer. August streamfiows increased in WS 1 compared to WS 2 by 159 percent following logging in WS 1, but this increase lasted for only eight years following the start of logging in 1962. Water yield in August for 1970–1988 observed from WS 1 was 25 percent less than predicted from the control (WS 2, ANOVA, p=0.032). Water yield in August increased by 59 percent after 25 percent of the area of WS 3 was patch-cut logged and burned in 1963. In contrast to WS 1, however, water yields from WS 3 in August were consistently greater than predicted for 16 years following the start of logging, through to 1978. For the 10 years, 1979–1988, water yield observed in August from WS 3 was not different than predicted from the control (WS 2, ANOVA, p-0.175). The contrasting responses of WS 1 and 3 to logging are thought to be the result of differences in riparian vegetation caused by different geomorphic conditions. A relatively wide valley floor in WS 1 allowed the development of hardwoods in the riparian zone following logging, but the narrow valley of WS 3 and limited sediment deposits prevented establishment of riparian hardwoods. Low streamflows during summer have implications for salmonid survival. Reduced streamflow reduces the amount of rearing habitat, thus increasing competition. Combined with high water temperatures, reduced streamflow can lead directly to salmonid mortality by driving salmonids from riffles and glides, and trapping them in drying pools. Low streamflow also increases oxygen depletion caused by leaves from riparian red alders.     

A 576‐Year Weber River Streamflow Reconstruction from Tree Rings for Water Resource Risk Assessment in the Wasatch Front,Utah

We present a 576‐year tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of streamflow for northern Utah's Weber River that exhibits considerable interannual and decadal‐scale variability. While the 20th Century instrumental period includes several extreme individual dry years, it was the century with the fewest such years of the entire reconstruction. Extended droughts were more severe in duration, magnitude, and intensity prior to the instrumental record, including the most protracted drought of the record, which spanned 16 years from 1703 to 1718. Extreme wet years and periods are also a regular feature of the reconstruction. A strong early 17th Century pluvial exceeds the early 20th Century pluvial in magnitude, duration, and intensity, and dwarfs the 1980s wet period that caused significant flooding along the Wasatch Front. The long‐term hydroclimatology of northern Utah is marked by considerable uncertainty; hence, our reconstruction provides water managers with a more complete record of water resource variability for assessment of the risk of droughts and floods for one of the largest and most rapidly growing population centers in the Intermountain West.     

From Environmental Auditing to Integrated Environmental Management: Local Government Experience in the United Kingdom and Japan

Local authority experien ce with state of the environment reporting in the UK is discussed and com pared with the Japanese approach to integrated environmental management. Two case studies are presented, Lancashire County Council and Osaka Prefectural Government, and the progress made by each authority is examined. The paper argues that two very different approaches to local environm ental m anagement have evolved in the UK and Japan. The Japanese approach is essentially technocratic and pre-occupied with pollution control issues. In contrast, the UK approach has evolved out of the town planning tradition with its emphasis on conservation and am enity issues. Local authorities in Japan have greater jurisdictional powers, financial and technical resources to devote to environmental management. This allows them more direct control over the policy-making process. Constraints on local authority financial resources in the UK, and fragmentation of environmental responsibilities between various organizations, have resulted in a form of environm ental management which is based on interorganizational co-operation.     

Incorporating landscape stochasticity into population viability analysis.

The importance of incorporating landscape dynamics into population viability analysis (PVA) has previously been acknowledged, but the need to repeat the landscape generation process to encapsulate landscape stochasticity in model outputs has largely been overlooked. Reasons for this are that (1) there is presently no means for quantifying the relative effects of landscape stochasticity and population stochasticity on model outputs, and therefore no means for determining how to allocate simulation time optimally between the two; and (2) the process of generating multiple landscapes to incorporate landscape stochasticity is tedious and user-intensive with current PVA software. Here we demonstrate that landscape stochasticity can be an important source of variance in model outputs. We solve the technical problems with incorporating landscape stochasticity by deriving a formula that gives the optimal ratio of population simulations to landscape simulations for a given model, and by providing a computer program that incorporates the formula and automates multiple landscape generation in a dynamic landscape metapopulation (DLMP) model. Using a case study of a bird population, we produce estimates of DLMP model output parameters that are up to four times more precise than those estimated from a single landscape in the same amount of total simulation time. We use the DLMP modeling software RAMAS Landscape to run the landscape and metapopulation models, though our method is general and could be applied to any PVA platform. The results of this study should motivate DLMP modelers to consider landscape stochasticity in their analyses.     

Factors contributing to process variance in annual survival of female greater sage-grouse in Montana.

Populations of Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have declined by 69-99% from historic levels, and information on population dynamics of these birds at a landscape scale is essential to informed management. We examined the relationships between hen survival and a suite of landscape-scale habitat and environmental conditions. We radio-marked 237 female Sage-Grouse and measured 426 vegetation plots during 2001-2004 at four sites in a 3200-km2 landscape in north-central Montana, USA. We used program MARK to model monthly survival rates for 11 seasonal intervals. There was strong support for the best-approximating model (AICc weight = 0.810), which indicated that (1) hen survival varied by season within years and by year within seasons, (2) nesting hens had higher nesting-season survival than non-nesting hens, and (3) individuals at one site had lower hunting-season survival than at other sites. We observed considerable variation in hen survival. Process variation was 0.255, with an expected range of annual survival of 0.12 to 1.0. The ratio of process to total variation was 0.999, indicating that observed variation was real and not attributable to sampling variation. We observed a nearly fourfold difference in maximum and minimum annual survival, ranging from 0.962 +/- 0.024 (mean +/- SE) for nesting hens in 2001-2002 to 0.247 +/- 0.050) for non-nesters in 2003-2004. Low annual survival in 2003 resulted from the compounded effects of a West Nile virus outbreak in August and a severe winter in 2003-2004. Increased hen mortality associated with severe winter weather contrasts with prior beliefs that Sage-Grouse populations are typically unaffected by winter weather conditions and underscores the importance of protecting winter sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats.     

Assessing representativeness of places for conservation reservation and heritage listing

Problems arising from application of the representative criterion for conservation and natural heritage evaluation are discussed. An ecological basis to this criterion is suggested that focuses on those key environmental factors dominating biotic response. A methodology is proposed that utilizes computer-based methods of establishing and interrogating spatial data bases (geographic information systems), environmental modeling, and numeric analysis. An example is presented illustrating some of the advantages and limitations of classification and dimension reduction techniques in both defining bioenvironments and displaying their spatial distribution. The advantages of this method for representativeness evaluation are that it maximizes the utility of available data, is explicit and repeatable, and enables large areas to be analyzed at relatively fine scales.     

Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species.     

Ecology of loggerhead marine turtles Caretta caretta in a neritic foraging habitat: movements, sex ratios and growth rates

Much is still to be learned about the spatial ecology of foraging marine turtles, especially for juveniles and adult males which have received comparatively little attention. Additionally, there is a paucity of ecological information on growth rates, size and age at maturity, and sex ratios at different life stages; data vital for successful population modelling. Here, we present results of a long-term (2002–2011) study on the movements, residency, growth and sex ratio of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) in Amvrakikos Gulf (39°0′N 21°0′E), Greece, using satellite telemetry (N = 8) and ongoing capture–mark–recapture (CMR; N = 300 individuals). Individuals encountered at sea ranged from large juvenile to adult (46.2–91.5 cm straight carapace length) and demonstrated growth rates within published norms (<2.7 cm yr^?1) that slowed with increasing body size. We revealed that an unexpectedly high proportion of animals were male (>44 % of captures above 65 cm straight carapace length), compared to region-wide female-biased hatchling production, indicating sex-biased survival or possible behavioural drivers for likelihood of capture in the region. Satellite tracking confirmed that some turtles establish discrete, protracted periods of residency spanning more than 1 year, whilst others migrated away from the site. These findings are underlined by CMR results with individual capture histories spanning up to 7 years, and only 18 % of individuals being recaptured.     

Foraging habitats and migration corridors utilized by a recovering subpopulation of adult female loggerhead sea turtles: implications for conservation

From 1998 to 2008, 68 adult female loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were instrumented with platform transmitter terminals at nesting beaches in Georgia, North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC) on the East Coast of the United States of America (30°48′N, 81°28′W to 33°51′N, 77°59′W). The majority of post-nesting loggerheads (N = 42, 62 %) migrated to foraging habitats in the Mid-Atlantic Bight during May–October, with a subsequent migration occurring during November–March to foraging habitats south of Cape Hatteras, NC. Nine (13 %) loggerheads initially foraged in the near-shore, coastal areas of the South Atlantic Bight, but moved to offshore habitats—closer to the Gulf Stream—during November–March, while fourteen (21 %) loggerheads remained in foraging areas along the mid-continental shelf off of the eastern coast of Florida and/or continued southward to Florida Bay and the Bahamas. The present study delineates important, post-nesting foraging habitats and migration corridors where loggerheads may interact with commercial fisheries—providing managers opportunities to develop and implement optimally effective conservation actions for the recovery of this threatened species.