Land use planning and wildfire risk mitigation: an analysis of wildfire-burned subdivisions using high-resolution remote sensing imagery and GIS data

This paper evaluates risk factors that influence the probability that a house will burn from wildfire. A logistic regression is used to analyse data processed from pre-fire and post-fire IKONOS images and other geo-referenced data. The dependent variable is the probability that a given house will burn. A total of 12 independent variables are evaluated: vegetation density; area of defensible space; adjacency of a parcel to public lands; proximity of a house to fire station; road width; road type; parcel size; subdivision morphology; assessed value; elevation; slope and aspect. Model results generally support dominant land use planning and design strategies for wildfire risk reduction including vegetation treatments, site selection with respect to topography, and improving access to fire stations.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Handling data uncertainties in event tree analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is an established risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an accident. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing (or sparse), and even if available, is subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision (vagueness). Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, ETA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. This paper explores two approaches to address data uncertainties, namely, fuzzy sets and evidence theory, and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulations. A fuzzy-based approach is used for handling imprecision and subjectivity, whereas evidence theory is used for handling inconsistent, incomplete and conflicting data. Application of these approaches in ETA is demonstrated using the example of an LPG release near a processing facility.     

Ecological footprint: an indicator of environmental sustainability of a surface coal mine

Ecological footprint of mining can be used as an indicator to monitor and regulate mining operations and ensure long-term environmental sustainability. It can be viewed as a mining footprint, which is surrogate of the environmental impacts of mining. In this paper, a methodological framework is developed to demonstrate how ecological footprint can be used as an indicator of environmental degradation. Nine air quality and 26 soil quality samples are collected from the adjoining area of a mechanized coal mine, located in Raniganj coal mining belt of Burdwan district, West Bengal. Geographical information system is used for data interpolation and preparation of air and soil quality maps. The weights of different air and soil quality parameters are calculated by running principal component analysis. These derived weights are used for preparation of final composite air and soil quality maps. The composite maps show the mining footprints, expressed as land equivalent, around the active mine sites. The impact zones reveal the extent of degradation of the soil and air qualities in the areas near a mine. It is found that the impact zones, with respect to air and soil qualities, extend over areas which are 7.7 and 7.8 times the actual mining areas, that is, the area covered under mining operations, respectively. The results show the extent of degradation of air and soil qualities of the area. At different stages of mining, these footprints can be used as indicators to reveal the areas where soil and air qualities are adversely impacted.     

Sustainable cooking energy options for rural poor people in India: an empirical study

Currently, energy consumption for cooking in rural households of India is mostly based on fuelwood used in traditional stoves. This paper presents results of a study carried out in a forest fringe area of India on cooking energy use. The concept of calculating levelized cost as cost per unit of useful energy is applied on source–device combinations of cooking and validated in Bargaon Community Development Block of Sundergarh District in Odisha, India. About 92 % of the households in the study area use fuelwood as the only energy source for cooking; the total use of fuelwood for only cooking, in the Block is nearly 1.8 times the total sustainable wood supply showing an urgent need for promoting alternative cooking energy options. This paper also presents an assessment of different cooking options in terms of cost per unit of useful cooking energy. LPG, biogas and gasifier stoves are found to be far too expensive for the local people. Briquette-fired improved stoves appear to be a promising cooking energy option in the study area. Government support and intervention are recommended for promoting this option.     

Using linear regression to measure bird abundance

This study investigated methods for identifying daily incidence rates for bird species. It focused on relationships between incidence rates, site and season. We used sightings of 23 common resident species routinely reported every month from January 2004 to December 2007 at seven wetland locations in the Thale Noi non-hunting area of southern Thailand. Our findings revealed that the log-linear model gives a quite satisfactory fit, so it appears a suitable type of model for bird abundance. On taking logarithms of the incidence rates though, the zero counts must be replaced by an appropriate constant. Our model suggests that Cattle Egret (Bubulcus ibis) was found at the Thale Noi non-hunting area with the highest incidence rate. In contrast, we found a low mean of model outputs for Lesser Whistling-Duck (Dendrocygna javanica) relative to the mean in the data, and this species was not observed on at least 25 % or 3 days per year. These data had a low number of zeros and a large number of various species. Therefore, we recognize a remark on “what is being counted” that it is important to reasonably explain the species abundance in terms of statistical and ecological approaches.     

Consumer attitudes on the use of plastic and cloth bags

This paper examines consumer attitudes and behavior on the use of plastic and cloth bags in Eski?ehir, Turkey. To this end, a structural equation model is proposed. Environmental consciousness regarding the use of plastic bags, social pressure, support for the banning of plastic bags, the intention to use cloth bags and behavior to reduce plastic bag use are employed as latent variables in the model. The intention to use cloth bags and the behavior to reduce the use of plastic bags are defined as endogenous latent variables in the structural model. In the conclusion of the study, it is identified that consumers who are environmentally conscious and feel under social pressure, tend to reduce the use of plastic bags and switch to using cloth bags.     

Economic potential for conversion to organic farming: a net present value analysis in the East Mau Catchment,Nakuru, Kenya

This paper discusses the economic potential in terms of income changes that may result from conversion to low-external-input agriculture (LEIA) organic farming in a Kenya’s catchment area. A spreadsheet model applying the gross margin and net present value analysis was developed to estimate economic returns to labour and land of alternative smallholder cropping systems in the East Mau Catchment. The income and costs over a 10-year horizon associated with current cropping practices of a typical farm household cultivating 1.12 hectares of maize–bean intercrop, Irish potato, carrots, tomatoes, cabbages and kales mix were characterized based on field work conducted in 2008–2010. An “average” smallholder LEIA organic farm was simulated based on the conventional one, and its income discounted. A comparison was then made of the two farm types. Results indicate annual net present value returns to cropped land average Ksh 21,878/ha ($ 267/ha) and Kshs 22,561/ha (€ 275/ha) in 2010 values for conventional and prototype LEIA organic farming systems, respectively. Net returns are particularly sensitive to crop yields and price and cost of fertilizers and seeds. Further efforts should be made to provide an economic analysis of other LEIA organic farming practices such as composting, double digging and agroforestry in terms of additional labour costs resultant. The model can be extended to build more scenarios on the role of price premiums. Additionally, further research should be done to exploit the socio-demographic factors affecting the adoption of low-external-input systems.