A dynamic model of the spatial spread of an infectious disease: the case of fox rabies in Illinois

A spatially explicit computer model is developed to examine the dynamic spread of fox rabies across the state of Illinois and to evaluate possible disease control strategies. The ultimate concern is that the disease will spread from foxes to humans through the pet population. Modeling the population dynamics of rabies in foxes requires comprehensive ecological and biological knowledge of the fox and pathogenesis of the rabies virus. Variables considered including population densities, fox biology, home ranges, dispersal rates, contact rates, and incubation periods, can greatly effect the spread of disease. Accurate reporting of these variables is paramount for realistic construction of a spatial model. The spatial modeling technique utilized is a grid-based approach that combines the relevant geographic condition of the Illinois landscape (typically described in a georeferenced database system) with a nonlinear dynamic model of the phenomena of interest in each cell, interactively connected to the other appropriate cells (usually adjacent ones). The resulting spatial model graphically links data obtained from previous models, fox biology, rabies information and landscape parameters using various hierarchical scales and makes it possible to follow the emergent patterns and facilitates experimental stimulus/result data collection techniques. Results of the model indicate that the disease would likely spread among the native healthy fox population from East to West and would occur in epidemiological waves radiating from the point of introduction; becoming endemic across the State in about 15 years. Findings also include the realization that while current hunting pressures can potentially wipe out the fox in the State, some level of hunting pressure can be effectively utilized to help control the disease. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Recovery of sulfate saturated soils in the Plynlimon catchments, mid-Wales following reductions in atmospheric S inputs from the 1980s to 2011

Sulfate adsorption capacity of B-horizons of base-poor, predominantly stagnopodzol, soils from the Plynlimon catchments, mid-Wales was determined by combination of laboratory adsorption and desorption isotherms. Results show that sulfate adsorption capacity of a range of stagnopodzol (Histic-stagno-podzol (Leptic), WRB), brown podzolic soil (Histic-umbrisol (Leptic), WRB) and stagnohumic gley (Histic-stagno-gleysol, WRB) B-horizons was positively related to the amounts of extractable (pyrophosphate and oxalate) Fe + Al, with the stagnopodzol and brown podzolic soil Bs horizon having the largest adsorption capacity and stagnohumic gley Bg horizon the smallest adsorption capacity. Results show that dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has a negative but limited effect on sulfate adsorption in these soils. Results obtained from a set of historical soil samples revealed that the grassland brown podzolic soil Bs horizon and afforested stagnopodzol Bs horizon were highly saturated with sulfate in the 1980s, at 63% and 89% respectively, whereas data from some recently sampled soil from two sites revisited in 2010-11 indicates that percentage sulfate adsorption saturation has since fallen substantially, to 41% and 50% respectively. Between 1984 and 2009 the annual rainfall-weighted mean excess SO(4)-S concentration in bulk precipitation declined linearly from 0.37 mg S l(-1) to 0.17 mg S l(-1). Over the same period, flow weighted annual mean stream water SO(4)-S concentrations decreased approximately linearly from 1.47 mg S l(-1) to 0.97 mg S l(-1) in the plantation afforested Hafren catchment compared to a drop from 1.25 to 0.69 mg S l(-1) in the adjacent moorland catchment of the Afon Gwy. In flux terms, the mean decrease in annual stream water SO(4)-S flux has been approximately 0.4 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1), whilst the recovery in stream water quality in the Afon Cyff grassland catchment has been partly offset by loss of SO(4)-S by desorption from the soil sulfur pool of approximately 0.2 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1).     

A long-term monitoring study of chlorophyll,microbial contaminants,and pesticides in a coastal residential stormwater pond and its adjacent tidal creek

Stormwater ponds are commonly used in residential and commercial areas to control flooding. The accumulation of urban contaminants in stormwater ponds can lead to water-quality problems including nutrient enrichment, chemical contamination, and bacterial contamination. This study presents 5 years of monitoring data assessing water quality of a residential subdivision pond and adjacent tidal creek in coastal South Carolina, USA. The stormwater pond is eutrophic, as described by elevated concentrations of chlorophyll and phosphorus, and experiences periodic cyanobacterial blooms. A maximum monthly average chlorophyll concentration of 318.75 μg/L was measured in the stormwater pond and 227.63 μg/L in the tidal creek. Fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) levels were measured in both the pond and the tidal creek that exceeded health and safety standards for safe recreational use. A maximum monthly average FCB level of 1,247 CFU/100 mL was measured in the stormwater pond and 12,850 CFU/100 mL in the tidal creek. In addition, the presence of antibiotic resistant bacteria and pathogenic bacteria were detected. Low concentrations of herbicides (atrazine and 2,4-D), a fungicide (chlorothalonil), and insecticides (pyrethroids and imidacloprid) were measured. Seasonal trends were identified, with the winter months having the lowest concentrations of chlorophyll and FCB. Statistical differences between the stormwater pond and the tidal creek were also noted within seasons. The tidal creek had higher FCB levels than the stormwater pond in the spring and summer, whereas the stormwater pond had higher chlorophyll levels than the tidal creek in the summer and fall seasons. Chlorophyll and FCB levels in the stormwater pond were significantly correlated with monthly average temperature and total rainfall. Pesticide concentrations were also significantly correlated with temperature and rainfall. Pesticide concentrations in the stormwater pond were significantly correlated with pesticide concentrations in the adjacent tidal creek. Chlorophyll and FCB levels in the tidal creek, however, were not significantly correlated with levels in the pond. While stormwater ponds are beneficial in controlling flooding, they may pose environmental and human health risks due to biological and chemical contamination. Management to reduce residential runoff may improve water quality in coastal stormwater ponds and their adjacent estuarine ecosystems.     

Evaluating the utility and seasonality of NDVI values for assessing post-disturbance recovery in a subalpine forest

Forest disturbances around the world have the potential to alter forest type and cover, with impacts on diversity, carbon storage, and landscape composition. These disturbances, especially fire, are common and often large, making ground investigation of forest recovery difficult. Remote sensing offers a means to monitor forest recovery in real time, over the entire landscape. Typically, recovery monitoring via remote sensing consists of measuring vegetation indices (e.g., NDVI) or index-derived metrics, with the assumption that recovery in NDVI (for example) is a meaningful measure of ecosystem recovery. This study tests that assumption using MODIS 16-day imagery from 2000 to 2010 in the area of the Colorado’s Routt National Forest Hinman burn (2002) and seedling density counts taken in the same area. Results indicate that NDVI is rarely correlated with forest recovery, and is dominated by annual and perennial forb cover, although topography complicates analysis. Utility of NDVI as a means to delineate areas of recovery or non-recovery are in doubt, as bootstrapped analysis indicates distinguishing power only slightly better than random. NDVI in revegetation analyses should carefully consider the ecology and seasonal patterns of the system in question.     

An investigation into the origins of a series of PM10 anomalies at a remote location in NW England

Throughout 2004, PM(10) concentrations were measured at 10 min intervals at Hazelrigg, a remote location in NW England. The annual mean concentration was 6.1 microg m(-3) and likely origins were determined using directional and particle size characteristics. The fine temporal resolution of the monitoring also allowed several short periods (< 20 h) of persistently high PM(10) concentration to be identified and then 'typed' by event start time, duration, wind direction and particle size characteristics. A series of night time PM(10) anomalies (concentration < 465 microg m(-3)) of no obvious source were identified, and by elimination assumed to have originated from a ground-based fire of particle-rich fodder. A novel methodology combining Stokes' Law with systematic and rigorous modelling of source strength (using ADMS3.2) was developed to locate a possible burn site. The process was limited by the lack of previous modelling studies related to ground-based fires, and also by the capacity of ADMS3.2 to model sub-hourly time-varying emissions and fluctuations in wind speed and direction in the near field. However, modelling did suggest the source was located <400 m SSE of Hazelrigg, and investigation of this area revealed a burn site where tyres and plastic bags were piled nearby. Few studies have combined directional analysis and modelling to locate a source based on sampled data. This innovative methodology could be used by regulatory bodies to investigate the origins of unidentified PM(10) observed within the particle record.     

Modeling the dispersion of drilling muds using the bblt model: the effects of settling velocity

The benthic boundary layer transport (bblt) model was widely used in the Atlantic Canadian offshore region to assess the potential impact zones from drilling wastes discharges from offshore oil and gas drilling. The current version of the bblt uses a single-class settling velocity scenario, which may affect its performance, as settling velocity is size, shape, and material dependent. In this study, the effects of settling velocity on bblt predictions were assessed by replacing this single-class settling velocity scenario with a multi-class size-dependent settling velocity scenario. The new scenario was used in a hypothetical study to simulate the dispersion of barite and fine-grained drilling cuttings. The study showed that the effects of settling velocity on bblt predictions are spatial, temporal, and material dependent.     

A Comparison of Alternative Strategies for Cost-Effective Water Quality Management in Lakes

Roughly 45% of the assessed lakes in the United States are impaired for one or more reasons. Eutrophication due to excess phosphorus loading is common in many impaired lakes. Various strategies are available to lake residents for addressing declining lake water quality, including septic system upgrades and establishing riparian buffers. This study examines 25 lakes to determine whether septic upgrades or riparian buffers are a more cost-effective strategy to meet a phosphorus reduction target. We find that riparian buffers are the more cost-effective strategy in every case but one. Large transaction costs associated with the negotiation and monitoring of riparian buffers, however, may be prohibiting lake residents from implementing the most cost-effective strategy. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Planning for a neighborhood and city-scale green network system in Qatar: the case of MIA Park

In the past decade, Doha has witnessed fast-urban growth, an increased population rate, and an over-reliance on the automobile as the main mode of urban transportation. These factors caused social and environmental problems related to (1) the loss of a compact urban pattern, (2) an increased level of air pollution (3) high traffic congestions and (4) increasing landscape fragmentation. In consideration of such concerns, The State of Qatar invested large funds into the urban landscape development of Doha, as envisioned by Qatar National Vision 2030. As a result, in the past five years various parks and/or green areas, such MIA Park, a major public green space located around the Museum of Islamic Art (MIA), were planned and developed within metropolitan Doha. The authors argue that this park is currently facing issues and challenges related to (1) accessibility to/from the neighboring districts, and (2) connectivity to/from the neighboring parks. Therefore, this research study aims at assessing the existing conditions of MIA Park, at considering the broader city context and, at recommending strategies for implementing MIA Park’s green network system. It approached the investigative challenge using a multi-pronged comprehensive methodology, that deployed focus groups, semi-structured interviews and a comprehensive network analysis based on graph theory. The findings, revealed through these hybrid research tactics, allowed the researchers to generate a framework to enhance accessibility and connectivity of MIA Park through a green network system, planned at inter-related neighborhood-scale and city-scale levels. While the research examines most notably a single case, it is advocated that the proposed framework represents not just an optional feature pertaining to the case in Doha, but a valuable reference for the sustainable master planning of future cities in the State of Qatar and across the GCC. The paper proffers numerous key contributions, including the critical exploration of manufactured landscapes in Doha Qatar and the delineation of broadly applicable environmental design strategies to improve the fabric and livability of cities.

     

Modeling Effects of Natural Flow Restoration on Metals Fate and Transport in a Mountain Stream Impacted by Mine Waste1

Abstract: The effects of natural flow restoration on metals fate and transport in the Upper Tenmile Creek Watershed, Montana, were modeled using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). This 50‐km² watershed has over 150 historic abandoned mines, including mine waste rock and tailings, as well as adits discharging acid mine drainage, and is the primary drinking water supply for the City of Helena. Water supply diversions almost completely dewater some stream reaches during summer low flows, but the city is considering a new drinking water source and restoration of natural flows in Tenmile Creek as part of acid mine drainage remediation and broader aquatic habitat restoration. One dimensional steady‐state simulation of total recoverable cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in the mainstem was performed, and the model was calibrated to June 2000 base‐flow data. Representative low‐flows in August and high‐flow snowmelt conditions in June were modeled using mean monthly natural flow estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey and representative USEPA metals concentrations data. The modeling showed that total recoverable metals concentrations, and especially loads, can vary significantly among input locations and over time in the watershed. Some data gaps limit evaluation of variability and increase uncertainty in several locations. Model results indicated, however, that natural low‐ and high‐flow restoration by itself can reduce some metals concentrations in the mainstem compared to June 2000 values, which were influenced by significant water diversion. Some values (such as Zn) may still exceed standards during natural August low flow due to the remaining high concentrations and loads in the primary inputs to the mainstem. Others (such as Cu) can increase during high flow due to remaining mine waste sources and loading of particulate Cu associated with erosion and transport of solids. Greater than 50% reduction in concentrations and loads from some of the main tributaries may be necessary to meet all standards, especially for potential particulate loads with higher flows in June.     

The Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme: objectives, achievements in the first four years, and plans for future development

The Scottish Raptor Monitoring Scheme (SRMS) comprises 7 partner organizations and was established in 2002 after i) the publication of the UK Government's Raptor Working Group Report that made recommendations for enhanced monitoring, ii) increased applied data needs (e.g., for site designation), and iii) concerns for the status of some species. The SRMS has 3 major objectives: i) to facilitate cooperation between parties; ii) to provide robust information on Scottish raptor populations by determining trends in numbers, range, survival, and productivity and understanding the causes of change; and iii) to maintain high and uniform standards for the collection, collation, auditing, and analysis of data and reporting of information. Data are collected for 19 species: 14 diurnal raptors, 4 owls, and 1 corvid, the Common Raven. Here we describe the development of the scheme, challenges, and achievements during its first 4 y, the nature and value of the data collected, and plans for the future.