Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) and a disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over‐estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent‐based method did not accurately reflect long‐term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic‐connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions.     

Aldehyde and Monocyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Mixing Ratios at an Urban Site in Las Vegas,Nevada

ABSTRACT

Linhong Jing completed a master's degree in chemistry at UNLV and is currently enrolled in the Ph.D. program at Purdue University. Her address is Department of Chemistry, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907. Dr. Spencer Steinberg is an associate professor of chemistry at UNLV. His address is UNLV Department of Chemistry, P.O. Box 454003, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4003. Dr. Brian Johnson is an associate professor of chemistry at UNLV. His address is UNLV Department of Chemistry, P.O. Box 454003, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4003.

Oxidation of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) in air, of significance due to, for example, the potential for O₃ formation, is believed to be initiated by OH attack on the ring (addition) or on the alkyl side chain (H abstraction). A series of ring-breaking reactions follows, with major products predicted to be a-dicarbonyls, simple aldehydes, and organic acids. To test this prediction, ambient air mixing ratios of aldehydes (formaldehyde, ac-etaldehyde, benzaldehyde, glyoxal, and pyruvaldehyde), along with some supporting BTEX data, were measured at an urban site in Las Vegas, NV. Samples were collected on sorbents and determined by chromatographic methods; mixing ratios were compared to ambient levels of CO, O₃, and NO_x. A meteorological analysis (temperature, wind speed, and wind direction) was also included. Statistically significant relationships were noted among the BTEX hydrocarbons (HCs) and among the photochemi-cally derived species (e.g., O₃, NO₂, and some of the aldehydes), although there was seasonal variation. The observations are consistent with a common primary source (i.e., vehicular exhaust or fuel evaporation) for the BTEX compounds and a common secondary source (e.g., OH attack) for glyoxal and pyruvaldehyde.     

A Framework for Risk Characterization of Environmental Pollutants

Risk characterization is defined by both the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. EPA as the estimation of human health risk due to harmful (i.e., toxic or carcinogenic) substances or organisms. Risk characterization studies are accomplished by integrating quantitative exposure estimates and dose-response relationships with the qualitative results of hazard identification.

A Risk Characterization Framework has been developed to encourage a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk estimates. This methodology subdivides the four common components of the risk assessment process into ten elements. Each of these elements is based on a term in a predictive risk equation. The equation allows independent computations of exposure, dose, lifetime individual risk, and risk to affected populations. All key assumptions in the predictive risk equation can be explicitly shown. This is important to understand the basis and inherent uncertainties of the risk estimation process.

The systematic treatment of each of the ten elements in this framework aids in the difficult job of comparing risk estimates by different researchers using different methodologies. The Risk Characterization Framework has been applied to various indoor and outdoor air pollutants of a carcinogenic nature. With further development, it also promises to be applicable to noncarcinogenic effects.     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

Predicting Pressure Loss for Pulse Jet Filters

The analysis of pressure loss characteristics for pulse jet filters suggests that the relationship between dust adhesion to the fabric and the opposing force generated by pulse jet action plays a major role in dust removal. Hence, fabric cleanability is examined in terms of the adhesion-cohesion forces bonding the dust to the fabric vs. the intensity and frequency of the dust dislodgement forces produced by the high energy air pulses. The effect of jet size and location, jet air volume, and the intensity (pressure) and duration of the jet pulses is related to operating pressure loss.

The mechanics of energy transfer from the jet pulse to the dustladen fabric are explored in terms of jet pressure, solenoid valve action, the ratio of delivered pulse air volume to bag (tube) volume, and the elastic and flex properties of the felt bags. Effective and actual fabric dust holdings before and after cleaning are discussed with respect to steady-state dust deposition and removal rates, and operating pressure losses. Finally, predictive equations are proposed for estimating pressure loss over a broad range of design and operating parameters.     

The world agricultural system and ethical considerations relating to the rural environment: Some perspectives on cause and effect in underdeveloped countries

Food is a basic human need and therefore a basic human right. While food output has increased to a level where there is enough food produced to feed the world, still millions starve. Using the concept of capitalist world economy as a framework, this paper provides a structural analysis of the food production and distribution system within monopoly capitalism and its implications for countries of the underdeveloped world. Focusing on the impact of a dominant world food supply system on indigenous systems (particularly through the rise of science, technology, and monopoly capital), considerations relating to environmental use and food production and distribution are raised. Finally a call is made for a new agricultural ethic.