The impact of climate change on global energy use

Robust decision making, a growing approach to infrastructure planning under climate change uncertainty, aims to evaluate infrastructure performance across a wide range of possible conditions and identify the most robust strategies and designs. Robust decision making seeks to find potential weaknesses in systems in order to gird these through a combination of policy, infrastructure, and, in some cases, resilient or recovery strategies. A system can be explored by simulating many combinations of uncertain climatic and economic parameters; statistical clustering can identify parameter thresholds that lead to unacceptable performance. Often, however, uncertain variables are correlated, complicating the robustness analysis and casting doubt upon the thresholds identified. Here, we evaluate the impact of ordinary, hidden correlations in uncertainty parameters that drive simulation in robust decision making. We induced correlations between temperature and key climatic and economic parameters. We tested correlations of 0%, 30%, 60%, and 90% between temperature and the absolute value of precipitation, coefficient of variation, and downward surface solar radiation, and negative correlations between temperature and net variable benefit and the discount rate. We used a calibrated simulation model of a dam system regulating Lake Tana, Ethiopia, to compute the agricultural supply and net present value of the reservoirs. As the correlation strength increased, the results converged in a smaller region. We found that strong correlations depressed robustness scores of lower-performing alternatives and conversely increased results of the higher-performing alternatives. As the correlations increased in favorable alternatives, the failure thresholds became more extreme, speciously suggesting that only intense changes would result in poor performance. This overall analysis highlights the degree to which correlations of an interconnected climatic and economic system can impact outcomes of robust decision making and suggests methods to avoid confounding results.

     

Mineral licks: motivational factors for visitation and accompanying disease risk at communal use sites of elk and deer

Free-ranging cervids acquire most of their essential minerals through forage consumption, though occasionally seek other sources to account for seasonal mineral deficiencies. Mineral sources occur as natural geological deposits (i.e., licks) or as anthropogenic mineral supplements. In both scenarios, these sources commonly serve as focal sites for visitation. We monitored 11 licks in Rocky Mountain National Park, north-central Colorado, using trail cameras to quantify daily visitation indices (DVI) and soil consumption indices (SCI) for Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) during summer 2006 and documented elk, mule deer, and moose (Alces alces) visiting licks. Additionally, soil samples were collected, and mineral concentrations were compared to discern levels that explain rates of visitation. Relationships between response variables; DVI and SCI, and explanatory variables; elevation class, moisture class, period of study, and concentrations of minerals were examined. We found that DVI and SCI were greatest at two wet, low-elevation licks exhibiting relatively high concentrations of manganese and sodium. Because cervids are known to seek Na from soils, we suggest our observed association of Mn with DVI and SCI was a likely consequence of deer and elk seeking supplemental dietary Na. Additionally, highly utilized licks such as these provide an area of concentrated cervid occupation and interaction, thus increasing risk for environmental transmission of infectious pathogens such as chronic wasting disease, which has been shown to be shed in the saliva, urine, and feces of infected cervids.     

Three-dimensional analysis of coherent turbulent flow structure around a single circular bridge pier

The coherent turbulent flow around a single circular bridge pier and its effects on the bed scouring pattern is investigated in this study. The coherent turbulent flow and associated shear stresses play a major role in sediment entrainment from the bed particularly around a bridge pier where complex vortex structures exist. The conventional two-dimensional quadrant analysis of the bursting process is unable to define sediment entrainment, particularly where fully three-dimensional flow structures exist. In this paper, three-dimensional octant analysis was used to improve understanding of the role of bursting events in the process of particle entrainment. In this study, the three-dimensional velocity of flow was measured at 102 points near the bed of an open channel using an Acoustic Doppler Velocity meter (Micro-ADV). The pattern of bed scouring was measured during the experiment. The velocity data were analysed using the Markov process to investigate the sequential occurrence of bursting events and to determine the transition probability of the bursting events. The results showed that external sweep and internal ejection events were an effective mechanism for sediment entrainment around a single circular bridge pier. The results are useful in understanding scour patterns around bridge piers.     

Competition for electrons between reductive dechlorination and denitrification

It is common that 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (TCP) coexists with nitrate or nitrite in industrial wastewaters. In this work, simultaneous reductive dechlorination of TCP and denitrification of nitrate or nitrite competed for electron donor, which led to their mutual inhibition. All inhibitions could be relieved to a certain degree by augmenting an organic electron donor, but the impact of the added electron donor was strongest for TCP. For simultaneous reduction of TCP together with nitrate, TCP’s removal rate value increased 75% and 150%, respectively, when added glucose was increased from 0.4 mmol?L^–1 to 0.5 mmol?L^–1 and to 0.76 mmol?L^–1. For comparison, the removal rate for nitrate increased by only 25% and 114% for the same added glucose. The relationship between their initial biodegradation rates versus their initial concentrations could be represented well with the Monod model, which quantified their half-maximum-rate concentration (K _S value), and K _S values for TCP, nitrate, and nitrite were larger with simultaneous reduction than independent reduction. The increases in K _S are further evidence that competition for the electron donor led to mutual inhibition. For bioremediation of wastewater containing TCP and oxidized nitrogen, both reduction reactions should proceed more rapidly if the oxidized nitrogen is nitrite instead of nitrate and if readily biodegradable electron acceptor is augmented.

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Migration of aluminum from food contact materials to food—a health risk for consumers? Part III of III: migration of aluminum to food from camping dishes and utensils made of aluminum

Background

When cooking on a barbecue grill, consumers often use aluminum grill pans. For one, the pan catches the fats and oils that would drip into the embers causing the formation of potentially noxious smoke, and the pan also protects the food from being burned by direct heat from the coals. In addition, new aluminum products for use in ovens and grills are becoming increasingly popular. Due to their light weight and excellent heat transfer camping, utensils made of aluminum are, for example, often used by fishermen and mountain climbers. Preparing food in aluminum utensils can, however, result in migration of the aluminum to the foodstuffs.

Results/Conclusions

In this study presented here, it was found that the transfer limit of 5.00 mg/L for aluminum is not exceeded using simulants for oil or for tap water; however, with an aqueous solution of 0.5% citric acid, the limit is clearly exceeded at 638 mg/L. This means that the Tolerable Weekly Intake (TWI) is exceeded by 298% for a child weighing 15 kg and for an adult weighing 70 kg it is equivalent to 63.8% of the TWI, assuming a daily uptake of 10 mL marinade containing lemon juice over a period of 1 week. Preparation of a fish dish with a marinade containing lemon juice in camping dishes would result in the TWI being exceeded by 871% for a child weighing 15 kg and by 187% for an adult weighing 70 kg assuming a daily uptake of 250 g over a period of 1 week.

     

Investigation of the Influence of Seagrass on Fisheries Catch Level Using Isotonic Regression

The relationship between seagrass area and the commercial catch of some economically important South Australian fish species is not known in any quantitative sense. However, there is evidence in the literature to suggest that seagrass decline will detrimentally impact on species abundance and composition, and consequently that the presence or absence of seagrass will compromise the commercial and recreational fishery. In this paper we describe the construction of models based on order restricted (isotonic) regression and discuss the role of seagrass area, in terms of its influence on the level of commercial catch through modifying the effect of fishing 'effort'.     

Changes in electrical generator cooling systems: Are they cost-effective sources of water now and under climate change?

In the United States, thermal power plant electrical generators (EGs) are large water diverters and consumptive users who need water for cooling. Retrofitting existing cooling systems to dry cooling and building new facilities with dry cooling can save water and reduce EG's vulnerability to drought. However, this can be an expensive source of water. We estimate that the cost of water saved by retrofitting cooling in existing EGs ranges from $0.04/m³ to $18/m³ depending on facility characteristics. Also water savings from building new EGs with dry cooling ranges in cost per unit water from $1.29/m³ to $2.24/m³. We compare costs with that for water development projects identified in the Texas State Water Plan. We find the water cost from converting to dry cooling is lower than many of the water development possibilities. We then estimate the impact of climate change on the cost of water saved, finding climate change can increase EG water use by up to 9.3% and lower the costs of water saved. Generally, it appears that water planners might consider cooling alterations as a cost competitive water development alternative whose cost would be further decreased by climate change.     

Assessment of soil erosion under rainfed sugarcane in KwaZulu‐Natal,South Africa

Soil erosion from agricultural land use runoff is a major threat to the sustainability of soil composition and water resource integrity. Sugarcane is an important cash and food security crop in South Africa, subjected to an intensive soil erosion, and consequently, severe land degradation. This study aimed to investigate soil erosion and associated soil and cover factors under rainfed sugarcane, in a small catchment, KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa. Three replicated runoff plots were installed at different slope positions (down, mid and upslope) within cultivated sugarcane fields to monitor soil erosion during the 2016–2017 rainy season. On average, annual runoff (RF) was significantly greater from 10 m² plots with 1163.77 ± 2.63 l/m/year compared to 1 m² plots. However, sediment concentration (SC) was significantly lower in 10 m² (0.34 ± 0.04 g/l) compared to 1 m² (6.94 ± 0.24 g/l) plots. The annual soil losses (SL) calculated from 12 rainfall events was 58.36 ± 0.77 and 8.84 ± 0.20 t/ha from 1 m² and 10 m² plots, respectively. The 1 m² plot, SL (2.4 ± 1.41 ton/ha/year) in the upslope experienced 33% more loss than the midslope and 50% more loss than the downslope position. SL was relatively lower from the 10 m² plots than the 1 m² plots, which is explained by high sediment deposition at the greater plot scale. SL was negatively correlated with the soil organic carbon stocks (r = ?0.82) and soil surface cover (r = ?0.55). RF decreased with the increase of slope gradient (r = ?0.88) and soil infiltration rate (r = ?0.87). There were considerable soil losses from cultivated sugarcane fields with low organic matter. These findings suggest that to mitigate soil erosion, soil organic carbon stocks and vegetation cover needs to be increased through appropriate land management practices, particularly in cultivated areas with steep gradients.     

Habitat Improvements and Fish Community Response Associated with an Agricultural Two‐Stage Ditch in Mower County,Minnesota

Water quality and stream habitat in agricultural watersheds are under greater scrutiny as hydrologic pathways are altered to increase crop production. Ditches have been traditionally constructed to remove water from agricultural lands. Little attention has been placed on alternative ditch designs that are more stable and provide greater habitat diversity for wildlife and aquatic species. In 2009, 1.89 km of a conventional drainage ditch in Mower County, Minnesota, was converted to a two‐stage ditch (TSD) with small, adjacent floodplains to mimic a natural system. Cross section surveys, conducted pre‐ and post‐construction, generally indicate a stable channel with minor adjustments over time. Vegetation surveys showed differences in species composition and biomass between the slopes and the benches, with changes ongoing. Longitudinal surveys demonstrated a 12‐fold increase in depth variability. Fish habitat quality improved with well‐sorted gravel riffles and deeper pool habitat. The biological response to improved habitat quality was investigated using a Fish Index of Biological Integrity (FIBI). Our results show higher FIBI scores post‐construction with scores more similar to natural streams. In summary, the TSD demonstrated improvements in riparian and instream habitat quality and fish communities, which showed greater fish species richness, higher percentages of gravel spawning fish, and better FIBI scores. This type of management tool could benefit ditches in other regions where gradient and geology allow.