Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

RESEARCH: Shrub Propagation Techniques for Biological Control of Invading Tree Species

Cornus stolonifera, Salix petiolaris, and Spiraea alba clones already located within the corridor of an electrical power line. To establish the efficiency of treatments, we examined the statistical differences of growth traits between species and treatments. An analysis of the effects of layering shows, after the first growth season, differences for all growth traits in only one species, Spiraea alba. After the second growth season, we observed the development of new aerial stems. Layering favors horizontal expansion of shrubs over height development. The third year after treatment, the effect of layering is reduced except for Cornus stolonifera, which continuously increases, as shown by the significant progression of the clone issued from the layer even five years after treatments. With the cutting back technique, we expected a distinct vertical growth of the shrubs at the expense of increasing the crown diameter. This technique would be best associated with the rejuvenation of clones, followed by a layering of new shoots to allow a horizontal expansion of the shrubs. Therefore, the formation of a dense shrub community by layering should be considered a valuable approach for the biological control of undesirable trees in powerline rights-of-way.     

Stability of a Coal Waste Artificial Reef

The feasibility of using U.K. coal-fired power station waste materials for artificial reef production is being examined. in June, 1989, an experimental artificial reef was constructed in Poole Bay, off the central south coast of the U.K., using three different mixtures of pulverised fuel ash (PFA), flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) gypsum and slurry, stabilized with cement and formed into blocks. Fifty tonnes of 40 × 20 × 20 cm blocks were formed into eight conical reef units replicating three different PFA/gypsum mixtures and one concrete control. the reef structure is 10m below chart datum on a flat sandy sea-bed.

Combustion of coal concentrates the heavy metal content in the resultant ash. the purpose of stabilization of the ash as blocks is twofold: to immobilize heavy metals (or other components) and to provide hard substratum for the attachment of organisms. to examine the effectiveness of this stabilization and hence the environmental compatibility of the block materials, heavy metal (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Zn) content of the blocks has been monitored routinely over two years, to determine leaching rates. Sectional profiles indicate partial replacement of calcium content by magnesium. Associated with this there has also been some redistribution of heavy metals. Only in the case of cadmium has there been a detectable loss from the surface of blocks. Chromium and manganese concentrations appear to have increased. the metal content of the reef epibiota (including ascidians, Ascidia mentula; hydroids, Halecium spp.; bryozoans, Bugula spp. and red algae) growing on the ash blocks has been compared to that of epibiota attached to the concrete controls and surrounding sea-bed. to date no evidence of excess bioaccumulation of metals has been detected.

The physical integrity of the ash reef blocks has been maintained. There is evidence that the blocks are increasing in compressive strength.

An indication of the fishery enhancement potential of the experimental structure is given by the presence of eight commercially fished species (crustaceans and molluscs) including lobsters (Homarus gammarus).     

Is sex-biased maternal care limited by total maternal expenditure in polygynous ungulates?

We examined data on sex-specific differences in neonatal weight, litter size and adult female body weight in 32 populations of polygynous ungulates of 18 different species to test for the existence of a trade-off between sex-biased maternal care and the total amount of maternal expenditure. This corresponds to an extension of the hypothesis of Byers and Moodie (1990) that sex-biased maternal care is limited by a high level of maternal expenditure. We did not find any relationship between sex-biased care and two measures of total maternal expenditure. We highlighted high intraspecific variability in sex-biased care and very low intraspecific variability in total maternal expenditure. Even when this between-population variability in sex-biased care was accounted for, no relationship between sex-biased maternal care and maternal expenditure was detected. Apart from difficulties in finding suitable measures for both variables, two other reasons may account for the lack of a relationship between sex-biased maternal care and total maternal expenditure. Firstly, male offspring seem to be more affected than female offspring by harsh environmental conditions. This may lead to the variation observed in the extent of sex-specific differences in birth weight within a single species. If we assume that for a given maternal expenditure reproductive costs incurred by mothers are highest during harsh conditions, this could indicate the existence of a trade-off between sex-biased maternal care and maternal expenditure at the intra-specific level, thereby supporting the Byers and Moodie hypothesis. Secondly, polygyny is only a poor predictor of sex-biased care and factors such as compensatory growth or extended periods of growth may be expected to modify predictions for different species. Thus, environmental conditions and relative effects of maternal care on male and female lifetime reproductive success are better predictors of sex-biased care than total maternal expenditure.Communicated by P.M. Kappeler     

The influence of lindane and lindane metabolites on microsomal and mitochondrial ATPase in vitro

In vitro investigations of the influence of lindane and its metabolites were performed on microsomal and mitochondrial ATPases from liver, kidney and brain of rat and mouse. The microsomal Na+-K+-ATPases in rat liver were inhibited by the tested substances. An increase of activity was observed only with 2.5 X 10(-5) M gamma-HCH. Effects on the microsomal Na+-K+-ATPase from kidney and brain of rat were also indicated. The mitochondrial enzyme in rat liver was stimulated by all the compounds tested at concentrations of 10(-4) M - 10(-2) M. The effects on mitochondrial enzymes from kidney and brain varied in dependence on the tested substances. In the microsomes and mitochondria of mouse an influence on the Na+-K+-ATPases similar to the effects on the preparations from organs of rat was evident.     

Prenatal diagnosis of mosaicism for triploidy and trisomy 13

Mosaicism for trisomy 13 and triploidy was detected by amniocentesis performed at 18 weeks' gestation because of fetal anomalies. Pregnancy continued and a live-born male was delivered vaginally at 37 weeks. The infant had features common to both trisomy 13 and triploidy: intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), small abnormal ears, cleft palate, and a small jaw. In addition, he had complete cutaneous syndactyly of fingers 3 and 4 and partial syndactyly of the toes, as seen in triploidy. Mixoploidy for trisomy 13 and triploidy was confirmed postnatally in blood, skin, and placenta. Examination of chromosome heteromorphisms and DNA markers suggested the presence of two maternal contributions in the triploid cell line. In addition, the extra chromosome 13 in the trisomic cell line was derived from the mother. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a 45,X male with a SRY-bearing chromosome 21

Male phenotype associated with a 45,X karyotype is an infrequent finding. We present a case diagnosed prenatally on amniocentesis performed for maternal age. The male phenotype was associated with a translocation of a distal part of Yp including the pseudoautosomal SHOX gene and SRY gene on the short arm of a chromosome 21. By DNA analysis we could show that the X chromosome was of maternal origin and that the breakpoint was in interval 3 of the Y chromosome. Mechanisms and genetic counselling are discussed based on a review of published cases of 45,X and XX males. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.