Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Interinstrument comparison of remote-sensing devices and a new method for calculating on-road nitrogen oxides emissions and validation of vehicle-specific power

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) by vehicles in real driving environments are only partially understood. This has been brought to the attention of the world with recent revelations of the cheating of the type of approval tests exposed in the dieselgate scandal. Remote-sensing devices offer investigators an opportunity to directly measure in situ real driving emissions of tens of thousands of vehicles. Remote-sensing NO₂ measurements are not as widely available as would be desirable. The aim of this study is to improve the ability of investigators to estimate the NO₂ emissions and to improve the confidence of the total NOx results calculated from standard remote-sensing device (RSD) measurements. The accuracy of the RSD speed and acceleration module was also validated using state-of-the-art onboard global positioning system (GPS) tracking. Two RSDs used in roadside vehicle emissions surveys were tested side by side under off-carriageway conditions away from transient pollution sources to ascertain the consistency of their measurements. The speed correlation was consistent across the range of measurements at 95% confidence and the acceleration correlation was consistent at 95% confidence intervals for all but the most extreme acceleration cases. VSP was consistent at 95% confidence across all measurements except for those at VSP ≥ 15 kW t^?1, which show a small underestimate. The controlled distribution gas nitric oxide measurements follow a normal distribution with 2σ equal to 18.9% of the mean, compared to 15% observed during factory calibration indicative of additional error introduced into the system. Systematic errors of +84 ppm were observed but within the tolerance of the control gas. Interinstrument correlation was performed, with the relationship between the FEAT and the RSD4600 being linear with a gradient of 0.93 and an R² of 0.85, indicating good correlation. A new method to calculate NOx emissions using fractional NO₂ combined with NO measurements made by the RSD4600 was constructed, validated, and shown to be more accurate than previous methods.

Implications: Synchronized remote-sensing measurements of NO were taken using two different remote-sensing devices in an off-road study. It was found that the measurements taken by both instruments were well correlated. Fractional NO₂ measurements from a prior study, measurable on only one device, were used to create new NO_x emission factors for the device that could not be measured by the second device. These estimates were validated against direct measurement of total NO_x emission factors and shown to be an improvement on previous methodologies. Validation of vehicle-specific power was performed with good correlation observed.     

The use of XAD-resins for the detection of mutagenic activity in water: I. Studies with surface water

A study of the effects of different XAD-resins, bed volume, flow rate, pH and type of eluent on the extraction of organic mutagens from surface water is presented. XAD-4/8 is as effective as XAD-2 in concentrating organic mutagens from surface water and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) is as efficient as acetone in eluting the adsorbed organic mutagens. The latter allows direct testing up to 0.5 ml of DMSO concentrate in the Ames test. Variation of the pH of the water after passing the XAD-4/8, followed by readsorption, shows that the majority of the mutagenic activity due to dissolved organics is adsorbed at neutral pH. Only a minor fraction is readsorbed at pH 3. Further a XAD-4/8 concentrate and a similar concentrate prepared by freeze drying gives similar mutagenic activity. This indicates that many of the organic mutagens are recovered in the XAD-4/8 concentrate.It is concluded that adsorption on XAD-4/8, followed by direct testing of the DMSO eluates in the Ames test, presents a rapid and relatively simple way to detect low concentrations of organic mutagens in surface water. The general suitability of the method is shown for different types of surface water.     

Variation in the development of cadmium resistance in Daphnia magna straus; effect of temperature, nutrition, age and genotype

The extent to which responses to toxicants can be modified by the environment and genotype of Daphnia magna is important for interpreting the results from ecotoxicity tests. Variation in the development of cadmium resistance and its relevance for survivorship has been investigated in two genetically distinct clones of D. magna. Cadmium resistance was induced by pre-exposing daphnids to a sublethal concentration of a Cd/Zn mixture and thereafter cadmium tolerance was assessed in standard acute tests. The results showed that the ability to develop cadmium resistance is affected by temperature, but there is no consistent pattern for maternal nutrition. The age of the daphnids had no apparent effect on the development of cadmium resistance. Differences in the induction of cadmium resistance between clones were seen only under resource depression.     

Petroleum and hazardous chemical spills in Newark Bay, New Jersey, USA from 1982 to 1991

Newark Bay, New Jersey, is particularly vulnerable to ecological damage from petroleum and chemical spills, as a result of the enclosed nature and shallow depth of the bay, the high frequency of shipping traffic, and the numerous chemical and petroleum transfer terminals located alongs its shores. To evaluate the potential impacts to the natural resources of this coastal estuarine ecosystem, chemical and petroleum accidents reported to the US Coast Guard (USCG) between 1982 and 1991 were compiled to determine the frequency and volume of these incidents in Newark Bay and in each of its major tributaries. Records obtained from the USCG National Response Center's computerized database indicated that more than 1453 accidental incidents, resulting in the release of more than 18 million US gallons of hazardous materials and petroleum products, occurred throughout Newark Bay during this period of time. The bulk of the materials released to the aquatic environment consisted of petroleum products, specifically No. 6 Fuel Oil (103 spills, 12 829 272 US gal) and gasoline (207 spills, 48 816 US gal). The majority of the reported incidents occurred in the Arthur Kill and its tributaries, as well as in the Kill Van Kull and the Passaic River. The results of this study indicated that the accidental discharge of petroleum and hazardous chemicals represents a significant source of chemical pollution in Newark Bay. Based on the frequency of spills and the volume of materials released to the aquatic environment, it is likely that these events are having a deleterious effect on the Newark Bay ecosystem.     

The use of the cotton-strip assay to assess cellulose decomposition in heavy metal-contaminated sewage sludge-amended soils

Cellulose decomposition in soils amended over twenty year ago with heavy metal-contaminated sewage sludges was assessed by using the cotton-strip assay. The soils of the Luddington Experiment now contain concentrations of Cu, Ni and Zn in selected plots that approximate to or exceed the statutory limits for these elements in sewage sludge-amended soils. The rates of cellulose decomposition were generally lower in the plots with elevated metal concentrations, relative to uncontaminated sludge-amended and unsludged controls. Generally, the metal-rich plots showed reductions in the time taken to reach 50% cotton-tensile-strength loss (CTSL). However, the reductions could not be consistently related to any one metal. The difference in decomposition rates between treatments was systematically reduced over the duration of a time-course experiment. A lower initial population of the appropriate decomposer community of micro-organisms may account for the observed short-term lag in decomposition rates.