Space-time analysis of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 1 air quality simulations

This study presents an evaluation of summertime ozone concentrations over North America (NA) and Europe (EU) using the database generated from Phase 1 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The analysis focuses on identifying temporal and spatial features that can be used to stratify operational model evaluation metrics and to test the extent to which the various modeling systems can replicate the features seen in the observations. Using a synoptic map typing approach, it is demonstrated that model performance varies with meteorological conditions associated with specific synoptic-scale flow patterns over both eastern NA and EU. For example, the root mean square error of simulated daily maximum 8-hr ozone was twice as high when cloud fractions were high compared with when cloud fractions were low over eastern NA. Furthermore, results show that over both NA and EU the regional models participating in AQMEII were able to better reproduce the observed variance in ambient ozone levels than the global model used to specify chemical boundary conditions, although the variance simulated by almost all regional models is still less that the observed variance on all spatiotemporal scales. In addition, all modeling systems showed poor correlations with observed fluctuations on the intraday time scale over both NA and EU. Furthermore, a methodology is introduced to distinguish between locally influenced and regionally representative sites for the purpose of model evaluation. Results reveal that all models have worse model performance at locally influenced sites. Overall, the analyses presented in this paper show how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance statistics and to test the modeling systems’ ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features, especially at scales the modeling systems are designed to capture.

Implications: The analyses presented in this paper demonstrate how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance and to test the modeling systems’ ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features. Decisions for the improvement of regional air quality models should be based on the information derived from only regionally representative sites.     

Ecosystem services in coupled social–ecological systems: Closing the cycle of service provision and societal feedback

Both the ‘cascade model’ of ecosystem service provision and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework individually contribute to the understanding of human–nature interactions in social–ecological systems (SES). Yet, as several points of criticism show, they are limited analytical tools when it comes to reproducing complex cause–effect relationships in such systems. However, in this paper, we point out that by merging the two models, they can mutually enhance their comprehensiveness and overcome their individual conceptual deficits. Therefore we closed a cycle of ecosystem service provision and societal feedback by rethinking and reassembling the core elements of both models. That way, we established a causal sequence apt to describe the causes of change to SES, their effects and their consequences. Finally, to illustrate its functioning we exemplified and discussed our approach based on a case study conducted in the Alpujarra de la Sierra in southern Spain.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0651-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The New Zealand experience of varroa invasion highlights research opportunities for Australia

The Varroa mite (Varroa destructor) is implicated as a major disease factor in honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations worldwide. Honey bees are extensively relied upon for pollination services, and in countries such as New Zealand and Australia where honey bees have been introduced specifically for commercial pollinator services, the economic effects of any decline in honey bee numbers are predicted to be profound. V. destructor established in New Zealand in 2000 but as yet, Australia remains Varroa-free. Here we analyze the history of V. destructor invasion and spread in New Zealand and discuss the likely long-term impacts. When the mite was discovered in New Zealand, it was considered too well established for eradication to be feasible. Despite control efforts, V. destructor has since spread throughout the country. Today, assessing the impacts of the arrival of V. destructor in this country is compromised by a paucity of data on pollinator communities as they existed prior to invasion. Australia’s Varroa-free status provides a rare and likely brief window of opportunity for the global bee research community to gain understanding of honey bee-native pollinator community dynamics prior to Varroa invasion.     

In vitro approaches to assess bioavailability and human gastrointestinal mobilization of food-borne polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)

This study reports on the potential for gastrointestinal (GI) mobilization and bioavailability of food-borne PCBs in humans. The development and validation of a GI simulator and operational protocols, developed in compliance with the requirements of German DIN 19738 risk assessment test procedure, are presented. Food, naturally contaminated with PCBs, was homogenized with simulated saliva fluid and shaken in the GI simulator with simulated gastric fluids (containing pepsin, mucine) for 2 h at 37°C. Afterwards, the simulated intestinal fluids (containing pepsin, mucine, trypsin, pancreatin, bile) were added and the mixture shaken for a further 6 h prior to centrifugation and filtration using Buchner funnels to separate the undigested GI residues from GI fluids. PCBs were recovered from GI residues and fluids by Soxhlet and liquid-liquid extraction respectively, cleaned up using silica-SFE, and analyzed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry detection (GC-MSD). Detailed studies with fish indicate variations in mobilization and bioavailability of Σ PCBs (28, 52, 101, 118, 153, 138 and 180). For example, the bioavailable fractions (fractions mobilized) in mackerel, salmon, crab and prawn were 0.77, 0.60, 0.54, and 0.72 respectively of the Σ PCBs initially present in these food samples. The bioavailable fraction was dependent on the physicochemical characteristics of the PCBs. In mackerel bioavailable fractions for individual PCB congeners ranged from 0.47–0.82, from 0.30–0.70 in salmon, 0.44–0.64 in crab and in prawn from 0.47–0.77. Future studies will focus on understanding better, the variability in bioavailable fractions to be expected for different foodstuffs, in addition to tissue culture techniques using human gut cell lines to investigate a simultaneous mobilization and absorption of food-borne PCBs.     

In vitro effects of citrus oils against Mycobacterium tuberculosis and non-tuberculous Mycobacteria of clinical importance

We evaluated the in vitro activity of citrus oils against Mycobacterium tuberculosis and other non-tuberculous Mycobacterium species. Citrus essential oils were tested against a variety of Mycobacterium species and strains using the BACTEC radiometric growth system. Cold pressed terpeneless Valencia oil (CPT) was further tested using the Wayne model of in vitro latency.

Exposure of M. tuberculosis and M. bovis BCG to 0.025 % cold pressed terpeneless Valencia orange oil (CPT) resulted in a 3-log decrease in viable counts versus corresponding controls. Inhibition of various clinical isolates of the M. avium complex and M. abscessus ranged from 2.5 to 5.2-logs. Some species/strains were completely inhibited in the presence of CPT including one isolate each of the following: the M. avium complex, M. chelonae and M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. CPT also inhibited the growth of BCG more than 99 % in an in vitro model of latency which mimics anaerobic dormancy thought to occur in vivo. The activity of CPT against drug-resistant strains of the M. avium complex and M. abscessus suggest that the mechanism of action for CPT is different than that of currently available drugs. Inhibition of latently adapted bacilli offers promise for treatment of latent infections of MTB. These results suggest that the antimycobacterial properties of CPT warrant further study to elucidate the specific mechanism of action and clarify the spectrum of activity.     

Effect of Refractory on the Thermal Stability of SF6

The thermal decomposition of SF₆ is known to be oxygen-independent. Nevertheless, because of its high stability, the use of SF6 as a "conservative" surrogate in incinerator performance evaluation has been advocated and researched. This paper shows that refractory decreases markedly the stability of SF₆. The resulting increase in SF₆ decomposition was from 0 percent to 95 percent at 900°C, and the temperatures at which 90-99 percent decomposition occurred were lowered by 300-150°C. Refractory also decreased the stability of CCl₄ and C₂Cl₄, but to a lesser extent. The difference between the decompositions of C₂Cl₄ and SF₆ was reduced from several orders of magnitude to a factor of 2-4. Such a drastic and adverse change in relative stability could render SF₆ unsuitable as a "conservative" surrogate. The requirements for a "conservative" surrogate and the need for caution in its use are discussed, and further research areas are indicated.     

Use of inorganic and organic wastes for in situ immobilisation of Pb and Zn in a contaminated alkaline soil

Purpose  

This study aims to examine whether addition of immobilising agents to a sandy, alkaline (pH = 8.1) soil, which had been contaminated with Pb and Zn by airborne particles from a Pb/Zn smelter, would substantially reduce metal bioavailability.     

Properties of alkali-activated systems with stone powder sludge

This article investigates the effects of stone powder sludge on the microstructure and strength development of alkali-activated fly ash and blast furnace slag mixes. Stone powder sludge produced from a crushed aggregate factory was used to replace fly ash and granulated blast furnace slag at replacement ratios of 0%, 10%, 20%, and 30% by mass. The unit weight and compressive strength of the samples were measured, and scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses were performed. The test results indicated that the compressive strength of alkali-activated blast furnace slag mixes using stone powder sludge was higher than that of the alkali-activated blast furnace slag control mix, but the compressive strength of alkali-activated fly ash mixes decreased with increasing replacement ratio of stone powder sludge. Microscopy results indicated that for alkaliactivated blast furnace slag samples, broken surfaces were more evident than for the alkali-activated fly ash samples. For all XRD diagrams, broad and diffuse peaks were observed around 2θ = 35° (d = 2.96–3.03 Å), implying amorphous or short-ordering structure phases.