Avoiding Pitfalls of Using Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning

Abstract:   Museum records have great potential to provide valuable insights into the vulnerability, historic distribution, and conservation of species, especially when coupled with species-distribution models used to predict species' ranges. Yet, the increasing dependence on species-distribution models in identifying conservation priorities calls for a more critical evaluation of model robustness. We used 11 bird species of conservation concern in Brazil's highly fragmented Atlantic Forest and data on environmental conditions in the region to predict species distributions. These predictions were repeated for five different model types for each of the 11 bird species. We then combined these species distributions for each model separately and applied a reserve-selection algorithm to identify priority sites. We compared the potential outcomes from the reserve selection among the models. Although similarity in identification of conservation reserve networks occurred among models, models differed markedly in geographic scope and flexibility of reserve networks. It is essential for planners to evaluate the conservation implications of false-positive and false-negative errors for their specific management scenario before beginning the modeling process. Reserve networks selected by models that minimized false-positive errors provided a better match with priority areas identified by specialists. Thus, we urge caution in the use of models that overestimate species' occurrences because they may misdirect conservation action. Our approach further demonstrates the great potential value of museum records to biodiversity studies and the utility of species-distribution models to conservation decision-making. Our results also demonstrate, however, that these models must be applied critically and cautiously.     

Biological Sustainability of Live Shearing of Vicuña in Peru

Abstract:  The vicuña's ( Vicugna vicugna ) fiber is highly valued as an export product that is made into luxury fabric and clothing. The price of fiber in 2004 was $566/kg, which makes the fiber a potentially important source of income for Andean agropastoral communities and serves as an incentive to allow vicuña grazing on high-elevation Andean landscapes. It is presumed that a shorn vicuña has little value for poachers, so shearing vicuñas could serve as a disincentive to poaching. Thus, the supply of vicuña fiber may be sustainable if it is procured through live shearing, which should serve as a powerful conservation tool. We evaluated the effects of capture and shearing on the demography of vicuña in one site located in the Salinas Aguada Blanca Reserve, Arequipa, Peru, where vicuñas were captured and shorn in spring and then returned to the wild. We conducted fixed-width line-transect censuses from 1997 to 2003 of this population. We compared the proportion of young born to females that were shorn versus females that were unshorn for the 3 years in which shearing occurred. We evaluated the effect of capture and shearing on proportion of young born to shorn and unshorn females at a second site, Picotani, Puno. The wild population in Arequipa that underwent capture and shearing showed a steady increase in total population and average density between 1997 and 2003. No significant difference was found between the proportion of young per female for shorn and unshorn females at either site. We conclude that in spring, capture and live shearing of vicuñas can be biologically sustainable. Further research is needed to determine whether shearing during winter months is biologically sustainable.     

Critical Assessment of Claims Regarding Management of Feral Cats by Trap–Neuter–Return

Abstract:  Many jurisdictions have adopted programs to manage feral cats by trap–neuter–return (TNR), in which cats are trapped and sterilized, then returned to the environment to be fed and cared for by volunteer caretakers. Most conservation biologists probably do not realize the extent and growth of this practice and that the goal of some leading TNR advocates is that cats ultimately be recognized and treated as "protected wildlife." We compared the arguments put forth in support of TNR by many feral cat advocates with the scientific literature. Advocates promoting TNR often claim that feral cats harm wildlife only on islands and not on continents; fill a natural or realized niche; do not contribute to the decline of native species; and are insignificant vectors or reservoirs of disease. Advocates also frequently make claims about the effectiveness of TNR, including claims that colonies of feral cats are eventually eliminated by TNR and that managed colonies resist invasion by other cats. The scientific literature contradicts each of these claims. TNR of feral cats is primarily viewed and regulated as an animal welfare issue, but it should be seen as an environmental issue, and decisions to implement it should receive formal environmental assessment. Conservation scientists have a role to play by conducting additional research on the effects of feral cats on wildlife and by communicating sound scientific information about this problem to policy makers.     

Inbreeding Depression Accumulation across Life‐History Stages of the Endangered Takahe

Abstract: Studies evaluating the impact of inbreeding depression on population viability of threatened species tend to focus on the effects of inbreeding at a single life‐history stage (e.g., juvenile survival). We examined the effects of inbreeding across the full life‐history continuum, from survival up to adulthood, to subsequent reproductive success, and to the recruitment of second‐generation offspring, in wild Takahe ( Porphyrio hochstetteri ) by analyzing pedigree and fitness data collected over 21 breeding seasons. Although the effect size of inbreeding at individual life‐history stages was small, inbreeding depression accumulated across multiple life‐history stages and ultimately reduced long‐term fitness (i.e., successful recruitment of second‐generation offspring). The estimated total lethal equivalents (2B) summed across all life‐history stages were substantial (16.05, 95% CI 0.08–90.8) and equivalent to an 88% reduction in recruitment of second‐generation offspring for closely related pairs (e.g., sib–sib pairings) relative to unrelated pairs (according to the pedigree). A history of small population size in the Takahe could have contributed to partial purging of the genetic load and the low level of inbreeding depression detected at each single life‐history stage. Nevertheless, our results indicate that such “purged” populations can still exhibit substantial inbreeding depression, especially when small but negative fitness effects accumulate across the species’ life history. Because inbreeding depression can ultimately affect population viability of small, isolated populations, our results illustrate the importance of measuring the effects of inbreeding across the full life‐history continuum.     

Age and work outcomes: The moderating effects of self-efficacy and tool design effectiveness

This field study addressed the relationship between age and work outcomes by investigating the effects of two potential moderators of age–work outcome relations: self-efficacy and perceptions of tool design effectiveness, while controlling for job tenure, job demands, and gender. Findings revealed that job-focused self-efficacy beliefs moderated the relationship between age and absenteeism, while tool design moderated the relationship between age and performance. Self-efficacy and tool design both had direct positive main effects on job satisfaction. Implications for research on age and constructive work force management are discussed.     

Avoiding Re‐Inventing the Wheel in a People‐Centered Approach to REDD+

One important debate regarding Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) in developing countries concerns the manner in which its implementation might affect local and indigenous communities. New ways to implement this mechanism without harming the interests of local communities are emerging. To inform this debate, we conducted a qualitative research synthesis to identify best practices (BPs) from people‐centered approaches to conservation and rural development, developed indicators of BPs, and invited development practitioners and researchers in the field to assess how the identified BPs are being adopted by community‐level REDD+ projects in Latin America. BPs included: local participation in all phases of the project; project supported by a decentralized forest governance framework; project objectives matching community livelihood priorities; project addressing community development needs and expectations; project enhancing stakeholder collaboration and consensus building; project applying an adaptive management approach; and project developing national and local capacities. Most of the BPs were part of the evaluated projects. However, limitations of some of the projects related to decentralized forest governance, matching project objectives with community livelihood priorities, and addressing community development needs. Adaptive management and free and prior informed consent have been largely overlooked. These limitations could be addressed by integrating conservation outcomes and alternative livelihoods into longer‐term community development goals, testing nested forest governance approaches in which national policies support local institutions for forest management, gaining a better understanding of the factors that will make REDD+ more acceptable to local communities, and applying an adaptive management approach that allows for social learning and capacity building of relevant stakeholders. Our study provides a framework of BPs and indicators that could be used by stakeholders to improve REDD+ project design, monitoring, and evaluation, which may help reconcile national initiatives and local interests without reinventing the wheel. Evitar la Reinvención de la Rueda en un Acercamiento a REDD+ Centrado en Personas