Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population‐level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input‐parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input‐parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea‐level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions.     

Application of the Anthropogenic Allee Effect Model to Trophy Hunting as a Conservation Tool

Trophy hunting can provide economic incentives to conserve wild species, but it can also involve risk when rare species are hunted. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) is a conceptual model that seeks to explain how rarity may spread the seeds of further endangerment. The AAE model has increasingly been invoked in the context of trophy hunting, increasing concerns that such hunting may undermine rather than enhance conservation efforts. We question the appropriateness of uncritically applying the AAE model to trophy hunting for 4 reasons. First, the AAE assumes an open‐access resource, which is a poor characterization of most trophy‐hunting programs and obscures the potential for state, communal, or private‐property use rights to generate positive incentives for conservation. Second, study results that show the price of hunting increases as the rarity of the animal increases are insufficient to indicate the presence of AAE. Third, AAE ignores the existence of biological and behavioral factors operating in most trophy‐hunting contexts that tend to regulate the effect of hunting. We argue that site‐specific data, rather than aggregated hunting statistics, are required to demonstrate that patterns of unsustainable exploitation can be well explained by an AAE model. Instead, we suggest that conservation managers seeking to investigate and identify constraints that limit the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, should focus on the critical governance characteristics that shape the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, such as corruption, insecure property rights, and inadequate sharing of benefits with local people. Aplicación del Modelo Antropogénico del Efecto Allee sobre la Caza de Trofeos como una Herramienta de Conservación     

Incentivizing Monitoring and Compliance in Trophy Hunting

Conservation scientists are increasingly focusing on the drivers of human behavior and on the implications of various sources of uncertainty for management decision making. Trophy hunting has been suggested as a conservation tool because it gives economic value to wildlife, but recent examples show that overharvesting is a substantial problem and that data limitations are rife. We use a case study of trophy hunting of an endangered antelope, the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), to explore how uncertainties generated by population monitoring and poaching interact with decision making by 2 key stakeholders: the safari companies and the government. We built a management strategy evaluation model that encompasses the population dynamics of mountain nyala, a monitoring model, and a company decision making model. We investigated scenarios of investment into antipoaching and monitoring by governments and safari companies. Harvest strategy was robust to the uncertainty in the population estimates obtained from monitoring, but poaching had a much stronger effect on quota and sustainability. Hence, reducing poaching is in the interests of companies wishing to increase the profitability of their enterprises, for example by engaging community members as game scouts. There is a threshold level of uncertainty in the population estimates beyond which the year‐to‐year variation in the trophy quota prevented planning by the safari companies. This suggests a role for government in ensuring that a baseline level of population monitoring is carried out such that this level is not exceeded. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of multiple stakeholders when designing frameworks for resource use and when designing management frameworks to address the particular sources of uncertainty that affect system sustainability most heavily. Incentivando el Monitoreo y el Cumplimiento en la Caza de Trofeos     

Longitudinal Analysis of Attitudes Toward Wolves

Understanding individual attitudes and how these predict overt opposition to predator conservation or direct, covert action against predators will help to recover and maintain them. Studies of attitudes toward wild animals rely primarily on samples of individuals at a single time point. We examined longitudinal change in individuals’ attitudes toward gray wolves (Canis lupus). In the contiguous United States, amidst persistent controversy and opposition, abundances of gray wolves are at their highest in 60 years. We used mailed surveys to sample 1892 residents of Wisconsin in 2001 or 2004 and then resampled 656 of these individuals who resided in wolf range in 2009. Our study spanned a period of policy shifts and increasing wolf abundance. Over time, the 656 respondents increased agreement with statements reflecting fear of wolves, the belief that wolves compete with hunters for deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and inclination to poach a wolf. Endorsement of lethal control of wolves by the state and public hunting of wolves also increased. Neither the time span over which respondents reported exposure to wolves locally nor self‐reported losses of domestic animals to wolves correlated with changes in attitude. We predict future increases in legal and illegal killing of wolves that may reduce their abundance in Wisconsin unless interventions are implemented to improve attitudes and behavior toward wolves. To assess whether interventions change attitudes, longitudinal studies like ours are needed. Análisis Longitudinal de las Actitudes Hacia Lobos     

Treatment of wastewaters from ore flotation containing aliphatic amines and hydrofluoric acid

Wastewaters from feldspar flotation containing hydrofluoric acid and amines were effectively purified by neutralization‐clarification with a 10% solution of lime and polyelectrolytes, followed by a coke filtration and/or a Zeolite or Activated Alumina adsorption. A Polish synthetic Ca‐type Zeolite proved to be efficient in the elimination of fluoride ions at the pH of 7.8. At this pH the Zeolite was more efficient than the Activated Alumina N. Wastewaters from feldspar washing were effectively treated by coagulation with A1₂(SO₄)₃, yielding final effluents with the characteristics very close to the clarified postilotation wastewaters. After clarification amines and fluoride ions could be removed from feldspar postflotation and feldspar washing effluents mixed together. A final concentration of fluorides and amines in the purified wastewaters was below 2 mg/1.     

Alignment of threat,effort, and perceived success in North American conservation translocations

The use of conservation translocations to mitigate human effects on biodiversity is increasing, but how these efforts are allocated remains unclear. Based on a comprehensive literature review and online author survey, we sought to determine the goals of translocation efforts, whether they focus on species and regions with high threat and likelihood of perceived success, and how success might be improved. We systematically searched the ISI Web of Knowledge and Academic Search Complete databases to determine the species and regions of conservation translocations and found 1863 articles on conservation translocations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean published from 1974 to 2013. We questioned 330 relevant authors to determine the motivation for translocations, how translocations were evaluated, and obstacles encountered. Conservation translocations in North America were geographically widespread (in 21 countries), increased in frequency over time for all animal classes (from 1 in 1974 to 84 in 2013), and included 279 different species. Reintroductions and reinforcements were more common in the United States than in Canada and Mexico, Central America, or the Caribbean, and their prevalence was correlated with the number of species at risk at national and state or provincial levels. Translocated species had a higher threat status at state and provincial levels than globally (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categorization), suggesting that translocations may have been motivated by regional priorities rather than global risk. Our survey of authors was consistent with these results; most translocations were requested, supported, or funded by government agencies and downlisting species at national or state or provincial levels was the main goal. Nonetheless, downlisting was the least reported measure of success, whereas survival and reproduction of translocated individuals were the most reported. Reported barriers to success included biological factors such as animal mortality and nonbiological factors, such as financial constraints, which were less often considered in the selection of release sites. Our review thus highlights discrepancies between project goals and evaluation criteria and between risk factors considered and obstacles encountered, indicating room to further optimize translocation projects.     

Assessment of Management to Mitigate Anthropogenic Effects on Large Whales

United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human‐induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause‐specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human‐caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species‐specific sustainable human‐caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n = 323), followed by natural causes (n = 248) and vessel strikes (n = 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel‐strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel‐strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population‐range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife‐management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality‐driven conservation issues. Evaluación del Manejo para Mitigar Efectos Antropogénicos sobre Ballenas Mayores     

Nature of the action of a compost from olive mill wastewater on Cu sorption by soils

The reaction of two soils that have received composted OMW as manure with Cu solutions is studied. The data were fitted into a multi‐reaction model which considers both reversible and irreversible adsorption sites, and an ‘instantaneous’ fraction. The presence of composted OMW caused a strong increase in the distribution coefficient describing the instantaneous fraction, and the disappearance of the irreversible fraction. This behaviour was attributed to blocking of some sorbing surfaces by the organics, and to new surfaces present in the compost. These effects can have some environmental significance from the viewpoint of Cu mobility.     

Use of Large‐Scale Acoustic Monitoring to Assess Anthropogenic Pressures on Orthoptera Communities

Biodiversity monitoring at large spatial and temporal scales is greatly needed in the context of global changes. Although insects are a species‐rich group and are important for ecosystem functioning, they have been largely neglected in conservation studies and policies, mainly due to technical and methodological constraints. Sound detection, a nondestructive method, is easily applied within a citizen‐science framework and could be an interesting solution for insect monitoring. However, it has not yet been tested at a large scale. We assessed the value of a citizen‐science program in which Orthoptera species (Tettigoniidae) were monitored acoustically along roads. We used Bayesian model‐averaging analyses to test whether we could detect widely known patterns of anthropogenic effects on insects, such as the negative effects of urbanization or intensive agriculture on Orthoptera populations and communities. We also examined site‐abundance correlations between years and estimated the biases in species detection to evaluate and improve the protocol. Urbanization and intensive agricultural landscapes negatively affected Orthoptera species richness, diversity, and abundance. This finding is consistent with results of previous studies of Orthoptera, vertebrates, carabids, and butterflies. The average mass of communities decreased as urbanization increased. The dispersal ability of communities increased as the percentage of agricultural land and, to a lesser extent, urban area increased. Despite changes in abundances over time, we found significant correlations between yearly abundances. We identified biases linked to the protocol (e.g., car speed or temperature) that can be accounted for ease in analyses. We argue that acoustic monitoring of Orthoptera along roads offers several advantages for assessing Orthoptera biodiversity at large spatial and temporal extents, particularly in a citizen science framework. El Uso de Monitoreos Acústicos a Gran Escala para Estudiar las Presiones Antropogénicas sobre Comunidades de Orthoptera