Building resilience into emergency management

Emergency management faces a changed reality in terms of possibilities and threats with use of new technology. Due to the ongoing changes in the operation of oil and gas production, different constellations of actors in a distributed system are built. This introduces opportunities for planning and operation. At the same time as new technology offers opportunities, the technology-enabled distributed network of actors generate challenges for emergency handling. The purpose of the study presented has been to look for possibilities for making emergency management more resilient by becoming a part of continuous risk and hazard management. The suggested three main elements that are important to consider in the development of future emergency management are (1) proactive emergency management through early risk anticipation; and emergency management’s adaptation to new and future work practices such as (2) distributed actors and (3) new technology. Based on these results we suggest broadening the scope of emergency management to systematically include monitoring, anticipation, responding and learning.     

Understanding consistencies and gaps between desired forest futures: An analysis of visions from stakeholder groups in Sweden

Conflicting perspectives on forests has for a long time challenged forest policy development in Sweden. Disagreements about forest futures create intractable deadlocks when stakeholders talk past each other. The purpose of this study is to move beyond this situation through the application of participatory backcasting. By comparing visions of the future forest among stakeholder groups, we highlight contemporary trajectories and identify changes that were conceived as desirable. We worked with four groups: the Biomass and Bioenergy group, the Conservation group, the Sami Livelihood group and the Recreation and Rural Development group; in total representatives from 40 organizations participated in workshops articulating the groups’ visions. Our results show well-known tensions such as intrinsic versus instrumental values but also new ones concerning forests’ social values. Identified synergies include prioritization of rural development, new valued-added forest products and diversified forest management. The results may feed directly into forest policy processes facilitating the process and break current deadlocks.     

Factors regulating the coastal nutrient filter in the Baltic Sea

Ambio - The coastal zone of the Baltic Sea is diverse with strong regional differences in the physico-chemical setting. This diversity is also reflected in the importance of different...     

Decision Criteria,Scientific Uncertainty,and the Globalwarming Controversy

This paper applies several well-known decision criteria to the climate change problem. The policy process is represented by a simple game against nature with two possible choices: abate or no action. The outcome is considered a compound lottery, with one representing emissions and another representing damages. Assuming that costs exceed benefits of abatement for the participant, the paper analyzes how different decision criteria affect the decision to abate. The role of expert opinion and quality of information in climate change decisions are also considered. The complexity of global warming makes it impossible to completely overlook the consequences of alternative choices. The paper discusses the question of whether the use of less information demanding alternatives to expected utility theory is indicated. It concludes that the choice of criterion is a political question, and that those in favor of abatement policies might be using one of the alternatives as basis for their advice, and suggests that if the possibility of making irreversible mistakes is of great concern, then the minimax regret criterion might have increased relevance.     

Inter-annual Variations of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide Over Europe During 1958–2003 Simulated with a Regional CTM

Inter-annual variability of surface ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) over Europe has been studied over the period 1958–2003 using a three-dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model coupled to meteorological data from the ERA40 data set produced at the European Centre of Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Emissions and boundary conditions were kept at present levels throughout the simulation period. It was found that the annual mean NO₂ concentration varies between ±50% and the summer mean O₃ concentration varies between −10 and +20 percent (%) compared to the 46-year average over the model domain. There is also variation in ozone and NO₂ over longer time scales. The last 22 years display high concentrations of ozone in central and south-western Europe and low concentrations in north-eastern Europe. The first 22 years display very high concentrations of NO₂ over the North Sea. There is indication of trends in ozone and nitrogen dioxide but this has to be investigated further. Such information is one factor that should be taken into account when considering future control strategies.