A practical methodology for information fusion in presence of uncertainty: application to the analysis of a nuclear benchmark

This work is devoted to some methodological developments on information fusion in presence of uncertainty and their application in the frame of the BEMUSE Programme. In nuclear safety studies, different uncertainty analyses using different codes and implying different experts are generally performed. It is then useful to define formal methods to combine all these information sources in order to improve the reliability of the expertise process and especially to detect possible conflicts (if any) between the sources. Starting from the IRSN methodology already introduced in Destercke and Chojnacki (Nucl Eng Des 238(9):2484–2493, 2008), this paper presents a more convenient reformulation of its construction to allow its use by engineers. It is then applied to analyse the results coming from the BEMUSE Programme.     

Sediment measurement and transport modeling: impact of riparian and filter strip buffers

Well-calibrated models are cost-effective tools to quantify environmental benefits of conservation practices, but lack of data for parameterization and evaluation remains a weakness to modeling. Research was conducted in southwestern Oklahoma within the Cobb Creek subwatershed (CCSW) to develop cost-effective methods to collect stream channel parameterization and evaluation data for modeling in watersheds with sparse data. Specifically, (i) simple stream channel observations obtained by rapid geomorphic assessment (RGA) were used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model stream channel variables before calibrating SWAT for streamflow and sediment, and (ii) average annual reservoir sedimentation rate, measured at the Crowder Lake using the acoustic profiling system (APS), was used to cross-check Crowder Lake sediment accumulation rate simulated by SWAT. Additionally, the calibrated and cross-checked SWAT model was used to simulate impacts of riparian forest buffer (RF) and bermudagrass [ (L.) Pers.] filter strip buffer (BFS) on sediment yield and concentration in the CCSW. The measured average annual sedimentation rate was between 1.7 and 3.5 t ha yr compared with simulated sediment rate of 2.4 t ha yr Application of BFS across cropped fields resulted in a 72% reduction of sediment delivery to the stream, while the RF and the combined RF and BFS reduced the suspended sediment concentration at the CCSW outlet by 68 and 73%, respectively. Effective riparian practices have potential to increase reservoir life. These results indicate promise for using the RGA and APS methods to obtain data to improve water quality simulations in ungauged watersheds.     

A GIS Approach to Prioritizing Habitat for Restoration Using Neotropical Migrant Songbird Criteria

Restoration efforts to increase wildlife habitat quality in agricultural landscapes have limited funding and are typically done on a first come, first serve basis. In order to increase the efficiency of these restoration efforts, a prioritized ranking system is needed to obtain the greatest increase in habitat quality possible for the fewest amount of hectares restored. This project examines the use of a GIS based multi-criteria approach to prioritize lands for reforestation along the Kaskaskia River in Illinois. Loss of forested area and corresponding increase in forest fragmentation has decreased songbird habitat quality across the Midwestern United States. We prioritized areas for reforestation based on nine landscape metrics: available agricultural land, forest cover gaps, edge density, proximity to river, 200 m corridor area, total forest core area, fringe core area, distance to primary core value, and primary core area. The multi-criteria analysis revealed that high priority areas for reforestation were most likely to be close to the riparian corridor and existing large blocks of forest. Analysis of simulated reforestation (0, 0.5, 1.0, 5.0 10.0, 25.0, and 50.0% of highest priority parcels reforested) revealed different responses for multiple landscape metrics used to quantify forest fragmentation following reforestation, but indicated that the study area would get the greatest rate of return on reforestation efforts by reforesting 10.0% of the highest priority areas. This project demonstrates how GIS and a multi-criteria analysis approach can be used to increase the efficiency of restoration projects. This approach should be considered by land managers when attempting to identify the location and quantity of area for restoration within a landscape.     

Metacommunity assembly and sorting in newly formed lake communities

new habitats are created, community assembly may follow independent trajectories, since the relative importance of dispersal limitation, priority effects, species interactions, and environmental gradients can vary as assembly proceeds. Unfortunately, tracking community colonization and composition across decades is challenging. We compiled a multiyear community composition data set and reconstructed past communities with remains from sediment cores to investigate cladoceran assembly dynamics in six older (1920s) and two more recently formed (1950s) lakes. We found that current communities cluster along a gradient of thermal stratification that is known to influence predation intensity. Assembling communities showed evidence for a greater influence of species sorting and a reduced influence of spatial structure since the first colonizations. However, lake community trajectories varied considerably, reflecting different colonization sequences among lakes. In the older lakes, small-bodied cladocerans often arrived much earlier than large-bodied cladocerans, while the two younger lakes were colonized much more rapidly, and one was quickly dominated by a large-bodied species. Thus, by combining contemporary community data with paleoecological records, we show that assembly history influences natural community structure for decades while patterns of ecological sorting develop.     

Impacts of Land‐Cover Change on Suspended Sediment Transport in Two Agricultural Watersheds1

Schilling, Keith E., Thomas M. Isenhart, Jason A. Palmer, Calvin F. Wolter, and Jean Spooner, 2011. Impacts of Land‐Cover Change on Suspended Sediment Transport in Two Agricultural Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):672‐686. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00533.x Abstract: Suspended sediment is a major water quality problem, yet few monitoring studies have been of sufficient scale and duration to assess the effectiveness of land‐use change or conservation practice implementation at a watershed scale. Daily discharge and suspended sediment export from two 5,000‐ha watersheds in central Iowa were monitored over a 10‐year period (water years 1996‐2005). In Walnut Creek watershed, a large portion of land was converted from row crop to native prairie, whereas in Squaw Creek land use remained predominantly row crop agriculture. Suspended sediment loads were similar in both watersheds, exhibiting flashy behavior typical of incised channels. Modeling suggested that expected total soil erosion in Walnut Creek should have been reduced 46% relative to Squaw Creek due to changes in land use, yet measured suspended sediment loads showed no significant differences. Stream mapping indicated that Walnut Creek had three times more eroding streambank lengths than did Squaw Creek suggesting that streambank erosion dominated sediment sources in Walnut Creek and sheet and rill sources dominated sediment sources in Squaw Creek. Our results demonstrate that an accounting of all sources of sediment erosion and delivery is needed to characterize sediment reductions in watershed projects combined with long‐term, intensive monitoring and modeling to account for possible lag times in the manifestation of the benefits of conservation practices on water quality.     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

Mechanical Equipment Injuries in Small Manufacturing Businesses. Knowledge,Behavioral, and Management Issues

This paper presents findings from an extensive study intofactors that impact upon the high rate of injuries due to mechanical equipment, especially in small manufacturing firms. Issues relating to knowledge of health and safety issues and to management practices have been shown to be extremely important with regards to safety in smaii businesses. Knowledge and awareness of hazards were found to be relatively low and few respondents, especially managers, had received adequate safety training. Managers did not regard the identification and control of risks as a priority. Workplaces generally lacked effective safety management procedures such as safety rules and regulations, procedures for recording and learning from accidents, and clearly defined responsibilities for safety. Some issues requiring further investigation, and some recommendations for improving safety in small businesses, are presented.     

Small Business Owners’ Knowledge of Their Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Legislative Responsibilities

This article reports the results of a study investigating the nature and extent of small manufacturing business owners’ knowledge of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) issues. Interviews were conducted with 33 owners of small manufacturing businesses in Sydney, Australia. Results showed that whereas the majority of owners had basic awareness of the existence of OHS legislation, they were often unaware about the extent of their legal OHS responsibilities. Owners were found to have minimal OHS training and practical OHS expertise. Lack of appropriate industry specific OHS information was found to be a major factor that inhibited the owners’ ability to deal with OHS issues effectively.     

Challenges to measuring,monitoring, and addressing the cumulative impacts of artisanal and small-scale gold mining in Ecuador

Portovelo-Zaruma, Ecuador is an artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) region with approximately 6000 gold miners working with mercury and cyanide. Although artisanal gold mining (AGM) has taken place in Portovelo-Zaruma for centuries, highly mechanized small-scale gold mining (SGM) processing plants capable of increased throughput began being built in the 1990s. While there are benefits associated with ASGM, there are also negative impacts experienced by the miners and the surrounding communities. To take advantage of ASGM as a poverty-alleviating mechanism while reducing unwanted externalities, the cumulative impacts must be understood. Numerous challenges to measuring, monitoring, and addressing ASGM impacts result from the complexity of the impacts themselves, the nature of the gold mining as an informal industry, and the shortfalls in the current regulatory framework. These are discussed in the context of ongoing, unresolved issues including efforts to address trans-boundary water pollution, management of mining waste, and conflicts regarding priorities, ambiguities, and enforcement of existing regulations and policies. Internationally, interventions to address both AGM and SGM impacts have typically focused almost exclusively on technological changes through the elimination of mercury use. Our analysis suggests that to better address ASGM and their cumulative impacts in Ecuador, it will be beneficial to revisit the legal definitions of AGM and SGM. Additionally, promotion of information-based strategies including educational outreach programs and cross-scale and cross-level mitigation methods may also be beneficial. The success of these strategies to reduce ASGM-related cumulative impacts will depend on sufficient funding and the commitment of stakeholders.