WARM: a European model for energy and environmental analysis

This paper describes the structure of a newly developed econometric, imperfectly competitive, general equilibrium model for the medium term study of energy and environmental problems. The geographical coverage of the model regards twelve European countries as well as the European Union as a whole. Compared to existing quantitative E3 (economy-energy-environment) models, the WARM model is characterized by a few novel and relevant features Firstly, in contrast to multicountry interlinked models, it copes with the international dimension by integrating differences from a common European denominator within a unified and homogeneously designed framework. A panel data estimation approach is used to achieve this objective. Secondly, in contrast to the traditional market-based philosophy of many econometric models, it adopts a perspective focused upon economic agents' decisions. Thirdly, in contrast with the practice of modelling technical progress as an exogenous and deterministic phenomenon, it incorporates an explicit attempt of modelling the sources and effects of endogenous technical change. A Kalman filter latent variable approach is the methodology from which statistical information on the dynamics of technical progress can be obtained. Finally, all markets in the model are imperfectly competitive, including the labour market where the wage bargaining process is explicitly modelled and estimated. This last feature is especially important in view of the European unemployment problem.     

Bias in protected‐area location and its effects on long‐term aspirations of biodiversity conventions

To contribute to the aspirations of recent international biodiversity conventions, protected areas (PAs) must be strategically located and not simply established on economically marginal lands as they have in the past. With refined international commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity to target protected areas in places of “importance to biodiversity,” perhaps they may now be. We analyzed location biases in PAs globally over historic (pre‐2004) and recent periods. Specifically, we examined whether the location of protected areas are more closely associated with high concentrations of threatened vertebrate species or with areas of low agricultural opportunity costs. We found that both old and new protected areas did not target places with high concentrations of threatened vertebrate species. Instead, they appeared to be established in locations that minimize conflict with agriculturally suitable lands. This entrenchment of past trends has substantial implications for the contributions these protected areas are making to international commitments to conserve biodiversity. If protected‐area growth from 2004 to 2014 had strategically targeted unrepresented threatened vertebrates, >30 times more species (3086 or 2553 potential vs. 85 actual new species represented) would have been protected for the same area or the same cost as the actual expansion. With the land available for conservation declining, nations must urgently focus new protection on places that provide for the conservation outcomes outlined in international treaties.     

Setting population targets for mammals using body mass as a predictor of population persistence

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population‐specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species‐specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life‐history traits related to species’ body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species‐ and context‐specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context‐specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species‐specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large‐scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning.     

Comparison of sequential monitoring methods for environmental time series with stochastic cycle

The paper compares recursive methods for detecting change points in environmental time series. Timely identification of peaks and troughs is important for planning defense actions and preventing risks. We consider linear nonparametric methods, such as time-varying coefficients, double exponential smoothers and prediction error statistics. These methods are often used in surveillance, forecasting and control, and their common features are sequential computation and exponential weighting of data. The new approach proposed here is to select their coefficients by maximizing the difference between subsequent peaks and troughs detected on past data. We compare the methods with applications to meteorological, astronomical and ecological data, and Monte-Carlo simulations.     

Addressing transboundary conservation challenges through marine spatial prioritization

The Adriatic and Ionian Region is an important area for both strategic maritime development and biodiversity conservation in the European Union (EU). However, given that both EU and non‐EU countries border the sea, multiple legal and regulatory frameworks operate at different scales, which can hinder the coordinated long‐term sustainable development of the region. Transboundary marine spatial planning can help overcome these challenges by building consensus on planning objectives and making the trade‐offs between biodiversity conservation and its influence on economically important sectors more explicit. We address this challenge by developing and testing 4 spatial prioritization strategies with the decision‐support tool Marxan, which meets targets for biodiversity conservation while minimizing impacts to users. We evaluated these strategies in terms of how priority areas shift under different scales of target setting (e.g., regional vs. country level). We also examined the trade‐off between cost‐efficiency and how equally solutions represent countries and maritime industries (n = 14) operating in the region with the protection‐equality metric. We found negligible differences in where priority conservation areas were located when we set targets for biodiversity at the regional versus country scale. Conversely, the prospective impacts on industries, when considered as costs to be minimized, were highly divergent across scenarios and biased the placement of protection toward industries located in isolation or where there were few other industries. We recommend underpinning future marine spatial planning efforts in the region through identification of areas of national significance, transboundary areas requiring cooperation between countries, and areas where impacts on maritime industries require careful consideration of the trade‐off between biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic objectives.     

Trophic and reproductive biochemistry of a deep-sea gelatinous octopus, Opisthoteuthis calypso

The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of the biochemical composition (proximate composition, amino acids and fatty acids in gonad, digestive gland and muscle) of the cirrate octopod, Opisthoteuthis calypso, collected off the coast of Portugal. Protein and energy contents of O. calypso were significantly lower (p < 0.05) than those observed for coastal octopods, suggesting that the gelatinous musculature of the cirrate octopus may not be a direct consequence of food limitation, but rather associated with reduced selective pressure for strong swimming ability in the deep sea. Moreover, principal component analyses of fatty acid (FA) data clearly separated coastal octopods from O. calypso. Saturated FA biomarkers (namely 16:0, 17:0, 18:0) and monounsaturated FA 22:1 suggest a higher phytodetrital influence on diet of O. calypso. A clear separation between groups was also observed with amino acid (AA) data. However, essential AA and non-essential AA designations (based on the flow of carbon through biochemical systems) do not necessarily provide an accurate picture of the origins of amino nitrogen in the deep-sea environment. Consequently, the interpretation of the present data is a challenging task but opens a new window of opportunity to unravel new trophic biomarkers in the deep sea.     

Neighborhood effects on seed dispersal by frugivores: testing theory with a mistletoe-marsupial system in Patagonia

The outcome of the dispersal process in zoochorous plants is largely determined by the behavior of frugivorous animals. Recent simulation studies have found that fruit removal rates and mean dispersal distances are strongly affected by fruiting plant neighborhoods. We empirically tested the effects of conspecific fruiting plant neighborhoods, crop sizes, and plant accessibility on fruit removal rates and seed dispersal distances of a mistletoe species exclusively dispersed by an arboreal marsupial in Northern Patagonia. Moreover, in this study, we overcome technical limitations in the empirical estimation of seed dispersal by using a novel 15N stable isotope enrichment technique together with Bayesian mixing models that allowed us to identify dispersed seeds from focal plants without the need of extensive genotyping. We found that, as predicted by theory, plants in denser neighborhoods had greater fruit removal and shorter mean dispersal distances than more isolated plants. Furthermore, the probability of dispersing seeds farther away decreased with neighborhood density. Larger crop sizes resulted in larger fruit removal rates and smaller probabilities of longer distance dispersal. The interplay between frugivore behavioral decisions and the spatial distribution of plants could have important consequences for plant spatial dynamics.     

Female-female competition is influenced by forehead patch expression in pied flycatcher females

There is increasing evidence that sexual selection operates in females and not only in males. However, the function of female signals in intrasexual competition has been little studied in species with conventional sex roles. In the Iberian populations of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), some females express a white forehead patch, a trait that in other European populations, only males exhibit and has become a classical example in studies of sexual selection. Here, we investigated whether the expression of this trait plays a role in female-female competition during early breeding stages. To test this hypothesis, we simulated territorial intrusions by challenging resident females with stuffed female decoys expressing or not a forehead patch. We found that resident females directed more attacks per trial and maintained closer distances to non-patched decoys than to patched ones. Also, patched females were more likely to attack the decoy than non-patched females. Interestingly, females were more aggressive against the decoys when their mate was absent. This may indicate that females relax territory vigilance in the presence of their mate or that males interfere in the interaction between competing females. The behavior of resident males was also observed, although it was not affected by decoy’s patch expression. Our findings suggest that the forehead patch plays a role in female intrasexual competition. If the forehead patch signals fighting ability, as it does in males, we may interpret that non-patched females probably avoided repeating costly agonistic encounters with the most dominant rivals.     

Biogeography of Atlantic and Mediterranean ascidians

Ascidian fauna have been intensively studied in the Atlantic Ocean, adjacent subpolar regions and Mediterranean Sea for the last 20 years. Here, we have described current species distribution patterns and identified nested areas of endemism using parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE). We also identified diversity hotspots, areas in which species occurred exclusively, and gaps in information about distribution patterns. Finally, we compared ascidian distributions among various proposed biogeographic divisions. The comprehensive literature review provided data on the geographic distribution of 627 species of ascidians. In the West Atlantic, there were three peaks in richness: north Caribbean—96 species, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro—61 species and the subantarctic region—54 species. In the eastern Atlantic, the greatest richness occurred on Spanish and French coasts—91 species and in Senegal—83 species. In the Mediterranean, the greatest richness was in Spain and France—142 species and Italy—127 species. PAE designated 20 areas of endemism nested within eight larger regions that were more or less in agreement with realms or provinces of previous studies: North Atlantic, Caribbean, southeastern Brazil, Magellanic, Subantarctic, Tropical West Africa, South Africa, and Mediterranean. Distribution patterns of the Ascidiacea, in general, followed previously proposed divisions of regions and provinces in the Atlantic and adjacent polar regions, but not subdivisions of these regions.