Comparison of sequential monitoring methods for environmental time series with stochastic cycle

The paper compares recursive methods for detecting change points in environmental time series. Timely identification of peaks and troughs is important for planning defense actions and preventing risks. We consider linear nonparametric methods, such as time-varying coefficients, double exponential smoothers and prediction error statistics. These methods are often used in surveillance, forecasting and control, and their common features are sequential computation and exponential weighting of data. The new approach proposed here is to select their coefficients by maximizing the difference between subsequent peaks and troughs detected on past data. We compare the methods with applications to meteorological, astronomical and ecological data, and Monte-Carlo simulations.     

Neighborhood effects on seed dispersal by frugivores: testing theory with a mistletoe-marsupial system in Patagonia

The outcome of the dispersal process in zoochorous plants is largely determined by the behavior of frugivorous animals. Recent simulation studies have found that fruit removal rates and mean dispersal distances are strongly affected by fruiting plant neighborhoods. We empirically tested the effects of conspecific fruiting plant neighborhoods, crop sizes, and plant accessibility on fruit removal rates and seed dispersal distances of a mistletoe species exclusively dispersed by an arboreal marsupial in Northern Patagonia. Moreover, in this study, we overcome technical limitations in the empirical estimation of seed dispersal by using a novel 15N stable isotope enrichment technique together with Bayesian mixing models that allowed us to identify dispersed seeds from focal plants without the need of extensive genotyping. We found that, as predicted by theory, plants in denser neighborhoods had greater fruit removal and shorter mean dispersal distances than more isolated plants. Furthermore, the probability of dispersing seeds farther away decreased with neighborhood density. Larger crop sizes resulted in larger fruit removal rates and smaller probabilities of longer distance dispersal. The interplay between frugivore behavioral decisions and the spatial distribution of plants could have important consequences for plant spatial dynamics.     

Coastal dune development and morphological changes along the littorals of Garigliano,Italy, and Elis,Greece, during the Holocene

Geomorphological and sedimentological studies were carried out along the Garigliano and Elis littorals with the aim to highlight if similar geoenvironmental features are controlled by same coastal processes. Actually, both sites are in Mediterranean climate regions very far each other, modeled by western winds and storms, characterized by wide sandy coastal dunes parallel to the present shoreline, with abundant pumices, and locally anthropized. The Garigliano littoral is characterized by Holocene dune and Pleistocene aeolian deposits. The beach is bounded landwards by a dune system emplaced during the Holocene. Geoarchaeological surveys highlighted the presence of a Roman road which cut the dune, with age older than Graeco-Roman Period. Since the end of the 1950’s, strong littoral retreat affected the beach-dune system, partly due to human activity. The coastland of Elis is characterized by Quaternary marine deposits. Three significant morphogenetic phases occurred during the Holocene. During the last phase, from Graeco-Roman Period to current, shoreline retreat and deposition of aeolian sands occurred. Geoarchaeological evidences suggest that this phase is related to a sea-level lowstand followed by a slow sea-level rise up to the present position, and by humid-temperate climate. Geomorphological surveys of the dunes of Garigliano and Elis, each other compared, suggest that the main phases of their development are related to the effects of climatic conditions, sea-level changes, and secondly to the recent anthropization. The coarse pumices found on both beaches of Campania and Peloponnese regions show the same mineralogical and petrographic features, so we assumed that they likely originated from the Aeolian Arc, southern Italy, which have same composition. These pumices reached the studied coasts by flotation, under the influence of winds and marine surface currents from the southwest-southeast and northwest-west respectively, participating to local coastal processes and representing a good geoindicator of long-distance drift. Precisely for these morphologically converging aspects, such distant sites have been selected and compared.     

Use of Pb blast furnace slag as a partial substitute for fine aggregate in cement mortar

The technical properties of cement mortars containing natural fine aggregate that is replaced by lead blast furnace slag at 25 and 35% level were assessed at fixed water-to-cement (W/C) ratio and at fixed flow table value. The leachabilities of some toxic elements from the cement mortars were also assessed to test the environmental suitability of the slag for use in preparation of cement mortar. At fixed W/C ratio, the strength of the mortar decreased with increase of the slag content. On the other hand, at fixed consistency, strength increased with increasing slag content in the mortar composition. The concentrations of some toxic elements in the leachates collected from the mortars containing slag were slightly higher than for the control mortar, but the concentrations in the leachates remained within the regulatory limits for recycling in construction applications. For most elements, leaching from a mortar containing 35% of slag was similar to that from a mortar containing 25% of slag. Therefore, 35% of natural sand can be beneficially replaced with Pb slag to produce cement mortar without affecting the mechanical and leaching properties studied in this work.     

Seasonal variations of heavy metals in central Greenland snow deposited from 1991 to 1995

To better assess the seasonality in the fallout of heavy metals to central Greenland, a continuous series of 68 snow samples has been collected at a remote site in the Summit area from a 2.7 m pit using ultraclean sampling procedures. This covers a continuous four year time period from spring 1991 to spring 1995. Co, Cu, Zn, Mo, Rh, Pd, Ag, Cd, Sb, Pt, Pb, Bi and U were determined using ultrasensitive inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry under clean room conditions. In addition we also determined Al by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and Na+, Ca2+, SO4(2-), MSA and oxalate by ion chromatography, species that will assist in the interpretation of the trace metal data. The data show pronounced inter- and intra-annual variations, with large differences in the amplitude of these variations for the element studied, with few clear seasonality patterns. Generally, high concentrations are observed in the spring snow layers, while much lower concentrations are typical of summer snow layers. Significant correlations are observed between Co, Cu, Zn, Ag and Sb, while Pt, Pd and Rh show no correlation with the other metals. Crustal enrichment factors show that while the crustal dust contribution is probably important for some metals for part of the year (spring), anthropogenic inputs are as important in many instances. Pronounced intra-annual variations are observed for some metals, in particular Pt. The variations observed for this metal parallel fairly closely changes in Russian Pt production, which points to emissions from smelters in the Russian Arctic as likely sources for Pt.     

Intercomparison of alpha and gamma spectrometry techniques used in (210)Pb geochronology

(210)Pb geochronology is a widely used tool in sedimentological studies aimed at the absolute ages of modern sediments (up to 100 years). (210)Pb activities required to model sedimentation regimes are measured using either alpha, gamma or beta spectrometry. Sediment accumulation rates derived from (210)Pb activity profiles measured by these methods are often used interchangeably in mass balance studies. Yet there is a lack of investigations considering the comparability of data derived using different analytical methods. Differences between methods could be caused by different behaviors of (210)Pb and (210)Po (used for alpha measurement) in the marine environment. In gamma spectrometry errors may arise when many gamma emitters are measured simultaneously and their activity peaks overlap. In alpha spectrometry chemical separation of (210)Po may result in analytical error due to incomplete sample dissolution. In the present study we evaluate total, supported and excess (210)Pb activities and their use in deriving sediment accumulation rates and (210)Pb excess inventories for three sediment cores collected from the Barents Sea. (210)Pb activities derived by alpha and gamma methods are shown to agree within counting error and there is also good agreement in the derived sediment accumulation rates. The inherent compatibility of analytical results based on alpha or gamma techniques is established.     

Risk management and integrated assessment

Integrated Assessment (IA) is the pursuit of a research program generated by the limitations of traditional forms of risk management. This claim can be justified by the following argument. Over the last decades, analysts and practitioners have brought to maturity a large array of tools for risk management. Most of them rely on combining judgments of utility with judgments of probability. This is the approach of the Rational Actor Paradigm (RAP). With many environmental problems, however, RAP‐based tools have run into considerable practical and theoretical difficulties. In response to these difficulties, a series of alternative approaches to practical risk management and to the theoretical understanding of risk have been elaborated. They try to embed the rational choices of individual actors studied by RAP into a broader framework of social rationality. This task can be approached by distinguishing situations where an actor holds unambiguous judgments of preference and probability from situations characterized by ambivalent judgments. RAP can handle the former, but not the latter. Problems whose management requires a combination of widely differing scientific disciplines are especially likely to involve ambivalent judgments of probability. The study of such problems constitutes the research program of integrated assessment. It involves three main tasks: developing IA models which can represent ambivalent expectations and evaluations, developing IA models which use such representations to study non‐marginal changes of social systems, and developing procedures of participatory IA which enable researchers to engage in an iterative exchange with various stakeholders. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Molecular phylogeography of two Italian sibling species of Calobius (Coleoptera, Hydraenidae, Ochthebiinae) inhabiting Mediterranean marine rock-pools

Marine rock-pools, commonly found along the Mediterranean coasts, are isolated patches of habitat characterised by large spatial and temporal variations. The phylogeography of Calobius quadricollis and C. urbanelliae, two sibling species of moss beetles (Coleoptera, Hydraenidae) inhabiting Italian temporary marine rock-pool ecosystems, were studied using mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI). Our data suggest a strong association between the scored genetic variability and the geographical distribution of populations sampled for both species. These analyses provided evidences of episodic species range expansion and fragmentation, recurrent “flush and crash” and bottleneck episodes probably occurring during the Glacial Cycles. The observed phylogeographical pattern is probably related to the historical and biogeographical processes of Mediterranean areas, as well as both to the ephemeral habitat tipology and limited dispersal ability of these beetles.     

Cleaner production in a small lime factory by means of process control

An approach to Cleaner Production in a small factory of hydrated lime is presented. The work aims to improving fuel and limestone utilization and reducing waste production in the plant. Efforts mainly focus on the calcination stage, where around 50% of the production costs due to fuel consumption occur. To fulfill this objective, new indicators are proposed to evaluate the performance of the lime shaft kiln, in order to develop an operational control method for the calcination process. The systematic use of the developed operational control method is a powerful tool in the daily operation of a small lime factory, since it allows a more efficient calcination process with reduced environmental impact and production cost.     

Seafloor ecosystem functioning: the importance of organic matter priming

Organic matter (OM) remineralization may be considered a key function of the benthic compartment of marine ecosystems and in this study we investigated if the input of labile organic carbon alters mineralization of indigenous sediment OM (OM priming). Using ¹³C-enriched diatoms as labile tracer carbon, we examined shallow-water sediments (surface and subsurface layers) containing organic carbon of different reactivity under oxic versus anoxic conditions. The background OM decomposition rates of the sediment used ranged from 0.08 to 0.44 μmol C ml_ws⁻¹ day⁻¹. Algal OM additions induced enhanced levels of background remineralization (priming) up to 31% and these measured excess fluxes were similar to mineralization of the added highly degradable tracer algal carbon. This suggests that OM priming may be important in marine sediments.