Accountability,Reporting, or Management Improvement? Development of a State of the Parks Assessment System in New South Wales,Australia

Management effectiveness evaluation has been recognized as an important mechanism for both reporting on and improving protected area management. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s program of work on protected areas calls on all countries to implement such systems. In 2004, the first whole of system assessment of park management effectiveness, based on the IUCN-WCPA Management Effectiveness Evaluation Framework, was undertaken in New South Wales, Australia as part of a State of the Parks reporting requirement. This article describes the development of the State of the Parks assessment tool, its elements, and how it addresses the management effectiveness difficulties associated with assessments conducted across an extensive and diverse range of park types. The importance of engaging staff, at all levels, throughout the process is highlighted, as well as the adjustments made to the assessment tool based on staff feedback. While some results are presented, the main purpose of the article is to identify and discuss important procedural and methodological considerations. These include balancing quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches, achieving a comprehensive understanding of the management processes, and responding to any problems associated with assessments.     

Assessment Tools for Urban Catchments: Developing Biological Indicators Based on Benthic Macroinvertebrates1

Abstract: Biological indicators, particularly benthic macroinvertebrates, are widely used and effective measures of the impact of urbanization on stream ecosystems. A multimetric biological index of urbanization was developed using a large benthic macroinvertebrate dataset (n = 1,835) from the Baltimore, Maryland, metropolitan area and then validated with datasets from Cleveland, Ohio (n = 79); San Jose, California (n = 85); and a different subset of the Baltimore data (n = 85). The biological metrics used to develop the multimetric index were selected using several criteria and were required to represent ecological attributes of macroinvertebrate assemblages including taxonomic composition and richness (number of taxa in the insect orders of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera), functional feeding group (number of taxa designated as filterers), and habit (percent of individuals which cling to the substrate). Quantile regression was used to select metrics and characterize the relationship between the final biological index and an urban gradient (composed of population density, road density, and urban land use). Although more complex biological indices exist, this simplified multimetric index showed a consistent relationship between biological indicators and urban conditions (as measured by quantile regression) in three climatic regions of the United States and can serve as an assessment tool for environmental managers to prioritize urban stream sites for restoration and protection.     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.     

Dynamics of Plains Cottonwood (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Populus deltoides</Emphasis>) Forests and Historical Landscape Change along Unchannelized Segments of the Missouri River,USA

Construction of six large dams and reservoirs on the Missouri River over the last 50–75 years has resulted in major landscape changes and alterations in flow patterns, with implications for riparian forests dominated by plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides). We quantified changes in land cover from 1892–1950s and the 1950s–2006 and the current extent and age structure of cottonwood forests on seven segments (two reservoir and five remnant floodplain) comprising 1127 km (53 %) of the unchannelized upper two-thirds of the Missouri River. Riparian forest area declined by 49 %; grassland 61 %; shrubland 52 %; and sandbar habitat 96 %; while agricultural cropland increased six-fold and river/reservoir surface area doubled from 1892 to 2006. Net rates of erosion and accretion declined between the 1892–1950s and 1950s–2006 periods. Accretion exceeded erosion on remnant floodplain segments, resulting in declines in active channel width, particularly in 1950s–2006. Across all study segments in 2006, most cottonwood stands (67 %) were >50 years old, 22 % were 25–50 years old, and only 10 % were <25 years old. Among stands <50 years old, the higher proportion of 25–50 year old stands represents recruitment that accompanied initial post-dam channel narrowing; while declines in sandbar and shrubland area and the low proportion of stands <25 years old suggest declines in geomorphic dynamism and limited recruitment under recent river management. Future conservation and restoration efforts should focus both on limiting further loss of remnant cottonwood stands and developing approaches to restore river dynamics and cottonwood recruitment processes.     

The research-policy nexus in climate change adaptation: experience from the urban water sector in South East Queensland,Australia

Despite an exponential growth in the volume of adaptation research over the last decade, there is still a research gap in regard to the provision of suitable information to adequately inform climate change adaptation policy makers. Contributing to this gap is a paucity of research reporting on the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies. This paper reports on the success, failures and future risks of the responses taken by the South East Queensland (SEQ) water sector during the Millennium Drought. The adaptation strategy employed a portfolio approach mixing ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ adaptations. Strategies included the following: large-scale water manufacturing facilities and distribution networks; the exploitation of local water resources; regulatory instruments; institutional reforms; support for research and training and a range of demand management programmes. The strategies employed were innovative and in many cases required rigorous scientific evidence for their development, implementation and follow-up assessments. However, we show that there has been considerable disparity between anticipated and actual policy outcomes, which points to maladaptive consequences. By revisiting the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies in the SEQ water sector, our paper provides evidence for the need for integrative studies with genuine policy integration.     

Development of a condensed SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism

The development of a condensed version of the SAPRC-07 mechanism, designated CS07A, is described. It is comparable in size to CB05 and was derived directly from detailed SAPRC-07, which serves as the basis for its predictive capability and evaluation against chamber data. It incorporates the more condensed and approximate peroxy radical lumped operator method employed in SAPRC-99, and condensations involving removing or lumping less reactive compounds, lumping some product species in isoprene or aromatic mechanisms with other species with similar mechanisms using reactivity weighting, removing some compounds and reactions that are rapidly reversed, and using fewer model species to represent emitted alkanes and similar species. It gives predictions of O₃, total PANs and OH radicals that are very close to the standard SAPRC-07 mechanism for airshed models used as the starting point, but predicts about 15% more H₂O₂. Use of CS07A is suitable for models where the priority is O₃ formation, while the less condensed version should be used if more accurate hydroperoxide predictions are a priority.     

Phosphorus forms and chemistry in the soil profile under long-term conservation tillage: a phosphorus-31 nuclear magnetic resonance study

In many regions, conservation tillage has replaced conventional tilling practices to reduce soil erosion, improve water conservation, and increase soil organic matter. However, tillage can have marked effects on soil properties, specifically nutrient redistribution or stratification in the soil profile. The objective of this research was to examine soil phosphorus (P) forms and concentrations in a long-term study comparing conservation tillage (direct drilling, "No Till") and conventional tillage (moldboard plowing to 20 cm depth, "Till") established on a fine sandy loam (Orthic Humo-Ferric Podzol) in Prince Edward Island, Canada. No significant differences in total carbon (C), total nitrogen (N), total P, or total organic P concentrations were detected between the tillage systems at any depth in the 0- to 60-cm depth range analyzed. However, analysis with phosphorus-31 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy showed differences in P forms in the plow layer. In particular, the concentration of orthophosphate was significantly higher under No Till than Till at 5 to 10 cm, but the reverse was true at 10 to 20 cm. Mehlich 3-extractable P was also significantly higher in No Till at 5 to 10 cm and significantly higher in Till at 20 to 30 cm. This P stratification appears to be caused by a lack of mixing of applied fertilizer in No Till because the same trends were observed for pH and Mehlich 3-extractable Ca (significantly higher in the Till treatment at 20 to 30 cm), reflecting mixing of applied lime. The P saturation ratio was significantly higher under No Till at 0 to 5 cm and exceeded the recommended limits, suggesting that P stratification under No Till had increased the potential for P loss in runoff from these sites.     

Life-cycle cost-benefit analysis of extensive vegetated roof systems

The built environment has been a significant cause of environmental degradation in the previously undeveloped landscape. As public and private interest in restoring the environmental integrity of urban areas continues to increase, new construction practices are being developed that explicitly value beneficial environmental characteristics. The use of vegetation on a rooftop--commonly called a green roof--as an alternative to traditional roofing materials is an increasingly utilized example of such practices. The vegetation and growing media perform a number of functions that improve environmental performance, including: absorption of rainfall, reduction of roof temperatures, improvement in ambient air quality, and provision of urban habitat. A better accounting of the green roof's total costs and benefits to society and to the private sector will aid in the design of policy instruments and educational materials that affect individual decisions about green roof construction. This study uses data collected from an experimental green roof plot to develop a benefit cost analysis (BCA) for the life cycle of extensive (thin layer) green roof systems in an urban watershed. The results from this analysis are compared with a traditional roofing scenario. The net present value (NPV) of this type of green roof currently ranges from 10% to 14% more expensive than its conventional counterpart. A reduction of 20% in green roof construction cost would make the social NPV of the practice less than traditional roof NPV. Considering the positive social benefits and relatively novel nature of the practice, incentives encouraging the use of this practice in highly urbanized watersheds are strongly recommended.     

Performance of single-gene noninvasive prenatal testing for autosomal recessive conditions in a general population setting

Objective

Carrier screening with reflex to single-gene noninvasive prenatal testing (sgNIPT) is an alternative approach for identifying pregnancies at risk for inherited autosomal recessive conditions without the need for a sample from the reproductive partner. This study is the largest clinical validation of this approach in a general population setting.

Methods

The clinical performance of carrier screening with reflex to sgNIPT for cystic fibrosis, spinal muscular atrophy, alpha thalassemias, and beta hemoglobinopathies was assessed by collecting pregnancy outcome data on patients who underwent this testing and comparing the neonatal outcome to the assay-predicted fetal risk.

Results

Of 42,067 pregnant individuals who underwent screening, 7538 carriers (17.9%) had reflex sgNIPT, and neonatal or fetal outcomes were obtained for 528 cases, including 25 affected pregnancies. Outcomes demonstrated high concordance with sgNIPT, for example, all pregnancies with 9 in 10 personalized fetal risk results were affected (positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% for the sub-group) and the sgNIPT assay showed a sensitivity of 96.0% (95% CI: 79.65%–99.90%), specificity of 95.2% (95% CI: 92.98%–96.92%), average PPV of 50.0% (95% CI: 35.23%–64.77%), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.8% (95% CI: 98.84%–99.99%). The end-to-end performance of carrier screening with reflex to sgNIPT was calculated to have a sensitivity of 92.4% and specificity of 99.9%, which are unaffected by partner carrier screening or misattributed paternity unlike a traditional carrier screening workflow, which has a 35% sensitivity and a maximum of 25% PPV (1 in 4) in a real-life setting.

Conclusion

This study builds upon earlier findings to confirm that carrier testing with reflex to sgNIPT is highly accurate for general population screening. Given this high accuracy and an NPV of 99.8%, this workflow should be considered as an option for most of the general pregnant population. When the biological partner sample is unavailable, this workflow should be recommended as the first-line approach.