A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

EPA's monitoring program at Love Canal 1980

Summary As stated at the beginning of this paper conclusions reached thus far cannot be discussed in this paper. However, a great deal of information is available for examination.EPA displayed its ability to coordinate widely separated laboratories, both Federal and private, into a smooth working team in a very short period of time. A very comprehensive study plan was also developed and implemented quickly. EPA was fortunate to have already had GCA under contract when the emergency arose. In no small part the success of the field effort was due to the managerial and technical abilities of the GCA team.Within a period of 6 weeks a plan was developed, a prime contractor retained, subcontractors hired, and field activities begun. Within a period of 3 months in excess of 8600 field samples were collected and over 12,000 field and QC samples were analyzed. During this same period 2 major data systems were developed, debugged, and placed into operation.In short this EPA project was probably the most comprehensive multimedia field project ever attempted by EPA and certainly the data is being subjected to the most strenuous quality control measures ever imposed by this Agency. The entire program is presently under peer review and the results are being prepared for publication by EPA Headquarters.Note. Originally intended to be published as part of the special issue on Exposure Monitoring: An International Workshop (Las Vegas, Nevada, October 19–22, 1981).     

The Variability of Estimates of Variance, and Its Effect on Power Analysis in Monitoring Design

Power analysis can be a valuable aid in the design of monitoringprograms. It requires an estimate of variance, which may come from a pilot study or an existing study in a similar habitat. For marine benthic infauna, natural variation in abundances canbe considerable, raising the question of reliability of varianceestimates. We used two existing monitoring programs to generatemultiple estimates of variance. These estimates were found to differ from nominated best estimates by 50% or more in 43% of cases, in turn leading to under or over-estimation of samplesize in the design of a notional monitoring program. The twostudies, from the same general area, using the same samplingmethods and spanning a similar time scale, gave estimatesvarying by more than an order of magnitude for 25% of taxa.We suggest that pilot studies for ecological monitoring programsof marine infauna should include at least two sampling times.     

Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context

Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India.     

Response of the Ascorbate-Peroxidase of Selenastrum capricornutum to Copper and Lead in Stormwaters

The green alga Selenastrum capricornutum expresses a uniqueascorbate peroxidase, that responds to copper and lead. Attemptswere made to test if this peroxidase could be used to monitor thelevels of copper and lead in natural waters. When S.capricornutum was exposed to a stormwater sample, the specificactivity of the peroxidase in the cell extract was commensuratewith the combined copper and lead contents in the sample. Theperoxidase responses were also correlated with the 96 hr biomasstoxicity assay of S. capricornutum. However, unlike thebiomass toxicity assay, the peroxidase activity was not affectedby the anions in the samples. The use of this peroxidase can beused as a marker for testing heavy metal toxicity in the water.